Are we in the middle of a winter?

[Raver]

DISCLAIMER: I'm well aware that this should all be taken with a grain of salt as a generational theory is merely analyzing patterns of the past and present and predicting future trends attributing them to arbitrary categorical cycles.


Hard times create strong men,
Strong men create good times,
Good times create weak men,
Weak men create hard times.


The last winter we had was back during the great depression, World War II and the dust bowl (1929-1946). Now we're heading towards a new crisis once again with the Great Recession, War on Terror, Climate Change, Opioid epidemic and Migration Crisis (2008-2030????) Is this a coincidence or is this really a pattern that all societies go through? We'd be smack in the middle of winter if this generational theory was true. Right after the '08 recession, we have been in a constant state of flux. Economically, the gap between the rich and poor is greater than ever. Living costs have skyrocketed to new heights, while living wages cannot keep up. We've been in war in Afghanistan since 2001, the war in Syria has been ongoing since 2011, which has spawned the Migration Crisis.

The Opioid epidemic has resulted in a substantial amount of deaths in everyday average Americans possibly due to the stress of dire times we are currently living in economically and in other aspects. Regardless of your stance on mass migration whether you're for or against it, it's safe to say that there is a migration crisis occurring right now at Western Europe and the American border. Multitudes of third world immigrants setting up tents and camps inside countries they've moved into legally or illegally is not a good thing regardless of your stance on immigration. Politically since 2016, we've never been more politically divided then ever. Far left activists (SJWs) are seeking to undermine free speech in the guise of fighting hate speech pushing many to the far right as a reaction to their antics.

The rise of fake news with mainstream media being more interested in promoting an agenda (mostly Liberal biased ignoring Fox News) and making money rather than publishing accurate news stories. Less men and women getting married and having kids, more single men ending up unemployed living at home into their thirties without a career or relationship and the growing amount of childless women with a career. We've had a rise in mass shootings and terrorist attacks in the past years where many have died for simply being at the wrong place at the wrong time. Tech censorship on social media looms as tech corporations gain more power, money and influence. The past decade or so has not been boring to say the least, the amount of social upheaval is unparalleled and only rivaled by the last winter that occurred during the great depression and WWII.

The 2020s is likely to be a traumatic and intense decade that hopefully we will come out stronger from it as soon as the 2030s come around. Politically, with the left and right so heavily divided and moving to further extremes, will we be able to reach a compromise? Where will we end up as a society between protecting minorities and protecting free speech? Where will we end up between capitalism and socialism? How will we deal with mass immigration? What sources of energy will we prioritize? So my question to you is are we in the middle of a metaphorical winter that started with the 2008 recession and won't end until around the late 2020s to the early 2030s or are these drastic changes occurring in society that are merely happening due to coincidence or is it a mixture of both?

Generations


Lost Generation (1883–1900)
Greatest Generation (1901–1924)
Silent Generation (1925–1942)
Baby Boomer (1943–1960)
13th Generation/Generation X (1961–1981)
Millennial Generation/Generation Y (1982–2004)
Homeland Generation/Generation Z (2005–2025????)


Generational Archetypes


Prophets

Prophet generations (dominant) are born after a Crisis, during a time of rejuvenated community life and consensus around a new societal order. Prophets grow up as the increasingly indulged children of this post-Crisis era, come of age as self-absorbed young crusaders of an Awakening, focus on morals and principles in midlife, and emerge as elders guiding another Crisis. Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their coming-of-age fervor and their values-oriented elder leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area of vision, values, and religion. Their best-known historical leaders include John Winthrop, William Berkeley, Samuel Adams, Benjamin Franklin, James Polk, Abraham Lincoln, Herbert Hoover, and Franklin Roosevelt. These were principled moralists who waged idealistic wars and incited others to sacrifice. Few of them fought themselves in decisive wars, and they are remembered more for their inspiring words than for great actions. (Example among today’s living generations: Boomers.)

Nomads

Nomad generations (recessive) are born during an Awakening, a time of social ideals and spiritual agendas, when young adults are passionately attacking the established institutional order. Nomads grow up as under-protected children during this Awakening, come of age as alienated, post-Awakening adults, become pragmatic midlife leaders during a Crisis, and age into resilient post-Crisis elders Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their fast-paced, alienated rising-adult years and their midlife years of pragmatic leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area of liberty, survival and honor. Their best-known historical leaders include Nathaniel Bacon, William Stoughton, George Washington, John Adams, Ulysses Grant, Grover Cleveland, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower. These were shrewd realists who preferred individualistic, pragmatic solutions to problems. (Example among today’s living generations: Generation X.)

Heroes

Hero generations (dominant) are born after an Awakening, during a time of individual pragmatism, self-reliance, and laissez faire. Heroes grow up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, come of age as team-oriented young optimists during a Crisis, emerge as energetic, overly-confident midlifers, and age into politically powerful elders attacked by another Awakening. Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their collective military triumphs in young adulthood and their political achievements as elders. Their main societal contributions are in the area of community, affluence, and technology. Their best-known historical leaders include Cotton Mather, “King” Carter, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, John F. Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan. These have been vigorous and rational institution builders. In midlife, all have been aggressive advocates of economic prosperity and public optimism, and all have maintained a reputation for civic energy and competence in old age. (Examples among today’s living generations: G.I.s and Millennials.)

Artists

Artist generations (recessive) are born during a Crisis, a time when great dangers cut down social and political complexity in favor of public consensus, aggressive institutions, and an ethic of personal sacrifice. Artists grow up overprotected by adults preoccupied with the Crisis, come of age as the socialized and conformist young adults of a post-Crisis world, break out as process-oriented midlife leaders during an Awakening, and age into thoughtful post-Awakening elders. Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their quiet years of rising adulthood and their midlife years of flexible, consensus-building leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area of expertise and due process. Their best-known historical leaders include William Shirley, Cadwallader Colden, John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson, Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson. These have been complex social technicians and advocates for fairness and inclusion. (Examples among today’s living generations: Silent and Homelanders.)


Turnings


Recent Turnings - Millennial Saeculum (73 + years)

American High - 1946-1963 (High/Spring)
Consciousness Revolution - 1963-1983 (Awakening/Summer)
Culture Wars - 1984-2008 (Unraveling/Fall)
Millennial Crisis - 2008-2030???? (Crisis/Winter)

High aka Spring

The First Turning is a High. This is a post-Crisis era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, though those outside the majoritarian center often feel stifled by the conformity. America’s most recent First Turning was the post-World War II American High, beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963. The Silent Generation (Artist archetype, born 1925 to 1942) came of age during this era. Known for their caution, conformity, and institutional trust, Silent young adults epitomized the mood of the High. Most married early, sought stable corporate jobs, and moved into new suburbs.

Awakening aka Summer

The Second Turning is an Awakening. This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Young activists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural and spiritual poverty. America’s most recent Awakening was the “Consciousness Revolution,” which spanned from the campus and inner-city revolts of the mid 1960s to the tax revolts of the early 1980s. The Boom Generation (Prophet archetype, born 1943 to 1963) came of age during this era. Their idealism and search for authentic self-expression epitomized the mood of the Awakening.

Unraveling aka Fall

The Third Turning is an Unraveling. The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of a High: Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Highs come after Crises, when society wants to coalesce and build. Unravelings come after Awakenings, when society wants to atomize and enjoy. America’s most recent Unraveling was the Long Boom and Culture Wars, beginning in the early to mid 1980s and ending in the mid to late 2000s. The era began with a new ethic of individualism (Reagan’s “Morning in America”), which has developed into an edgy popular culture, a pervasive distrust of institutions and leaders, and the splitting of national consensus into competing “values” camps. Generation X (Nomad archetype, born 1961-1981) came of age during this era. Their risk-taking, free agency, and market orientation epitomized the mood of the Unraveling.

Crisis aka Winter

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects towards community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. Fourth Turnings have all been new “founding moments” in America’s history, moments that redefined the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with the end of World War II. The G.I. Generation (Hero archetype, born 1914 to 1928) came of age during this era. Their confidence, optimism, and collective outlook epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s youth, the Millennial Generation (Hero archetype, born 1982 to 2004), show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straus...ational_theory


The Fourth Turning Infographic:




Neil Howe, one of the originators of Generations Theory discussing our current Winter Crisis: