Quote Originally Posted by XoX
My numbers are calculated assuming equal (not random) distribution.
Yeah, my mistake.

If we assume that members of a Quadra are more likely to "flock" together then this increases the odds of finding your dual, yes. However very often the members of a Club (ST, NT, SF, NF) not Quadra flock together in hobbies and workplaces.
Hobbies and workplaces, maybe, but social situations are a different story. Take an INTp, for example. NT club. But his contrary is ENTp and quasi is INTj, so he'll likely steer clear of them in social situations. An INTp and ENTj, on the other hand, work nicely together. ENTj's and ESFp's get along famously. Thus, the INTp would meet his dual through the ENTj.

Thus there are so many factors involved which we don't know the exact value of that by working with my original simple assumptions we can come as close to the truth as possible and any other method just adds speculation and just decreases the reliability of the result.
Your numbers are just as much a fabrication as any other numbers.