Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22...uble-business/
Their bearishness may be a tad optimistic.

Quote Originally Posted by Article
Overall, Russia needs world markets far more than the world needs Russian supplies; Europe received 83 percent of Russian gas exports but drew only 46 percent of its own supply from Russia in 2021. With limited pipeline connectivity to Asia, more Russian gas stays in the ground; indeed, the Russian state energy company Gazprom’s published data shows production is already down more than 35 percent year-on-year this month. For all Putin’s energy blackmail of Europe, he is doing so at significant financial cost to his own coffers.
Russian fossil fuel exports may be down, but revenues are up due to higher gas & oil prices. Also, the RCB has dramatically cut interest rates (20% → 8%), removing a major capital control used to stabilize the Rouble, and the truth is that Putin is making enough money to do this.

The article says that Putin's revenue is offset by the fact that he's on a massive spending spree. I'm not sure that investment (assuming that's where it's going) is necessarily a bad thing for the Russian economy.

Businesses and parts may have left Russia, but it is possible to run a functioning economy without the latest technologies. Russia recently unveiled a sanction-proof car — one without airbags and anti-lock brakes. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61796067 That's not exactly modern or luxurious. In fact, it's a throwback to the mid-twentieth century. But the mid-twentieth century wasn't exactly the stone age, and people weren't exactly destitute.


Sooner or later, we'll know where this is going. But it is worth noting that sanctions have an extremely poor track record of changing the behaviour of hostile regimes.