Putin knows that Ukraine can't be easily annexed. Not even eastern Ukraine can be annexed easily. He knows that a military confrontation with NATO is out of the question and would go badly for him. The best that he can hope for is a devolved Ukraine with more autonomous regions, regions with their own interests, that can be played off against each other, and some of which would no doubt accept Russian patronage.

Putin's attempt to reestablish Ukrainian neutrality has so far failed. But the bluster of a Russian invasion is already causing foreign investment to leave. A victory for Putin could include Russian businesses getting a bigger share of the Ukrainian pie, Russia getting more influence in Ukrainian affairs as a result, and the Ukrainian politicians who helped 'diffuse' the crisis having to thank Russia for their popularity. There are lots of interesting ways to thank Russia.