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Thread: The Ukraine Question

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    Quote Originally Posted by timber View Post
    You are not capable of thinking for yourself?
    No, I have the mainstream media connected directly to my brainstem.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    No, I have the mainstream media connected directly to my brainstem.
    Ahh. Skip the eyes and go straight for the central nervous system. Tight.

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    Quote Originally Posted by timber View Post
    I watch that video series you posted in the spring, the one where the young Russian guy interviews regular Russians in the streets? I found it intriguing and relieving. Normal attitudes about how bad the special operation and how lowly people think of Putin. They would never say it though. Most just want peace.

    Ofc it's all a gradient and it depends on who you ask and the location you ask them in. The cities will have open liberal views.

    But don't ever mention war in Ukraine. It's a special operation only.

    This shows just how fragile are Putin's decisions amoungbthe population.
    Russian government is a nightmare to me. You get to have the best life you can eke out, as long as you don't cross someone more powerful than you, and you never get to say what you think.

    Kill it with fire.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    Russian government is a nightmare to me. You get to have the best life you can eke out, as long as you don't cross someone more powerful than you, and you never get to say what you think.

    Kill it with fire.
    My one Uncle says Russia has ALWAYS been this way. They were never in its history democratic. ALWAYS Autocratic.


    I grew up in a family were you did not "talk about it", or "mention it", or "rock the boat". No wonder I was kicked out at 13. I once told my Dad he was lying (he was). I was hit so hard across the face that I fell out of the open passenger side door of the truck. That's when I learned that no one likes the Canary in the coal mine, no matter true, or right, they are being. How willing are you to play the liar's game? is how one survives, when the liar has the monopoly on violence.

    Later, I came to understand that words create good, or bad, morale. I see the importance of this, but I will never in my heart change. I might "play the game", to go with the flow, to survive, or to form the proper outcome. But don't ever think you own my mind and my heart. I will undermine your efforts if I know them to be wrong. Conversely, I will support your efforts "yes that is the best way to do it", or "safe work practises are the best" "united we stand, divided we fall." Aligning your attitude is a symbol of leadership, but to me, privately, it will always be a pretend act. One that I am forced to play. This is why I can relate with the nar-do-wells, if only at a distance.

    Your attitude changes the outcome. I see this on the fire line, or other high stakes, stressful situations. Some people, Putin, take this to the Nth degree. Their positions are so weak, they have no other way of maintaining power then to shut you up.

    I wonder if this is the closed mouth quadra, or tied hands? I always feel stuck in the confines of what is required or expected of me.

    Russia is just one big lair's game. Might is right, but that right is so weak it cannot handle any questions and it knows this. This is why I see these groups as pathetic. I also see the prosocial, healthy versions of this, just as pathetic, but from a more shadowed standpoint. Make sense?

    "We all need to believe, say and do the same thing, otherwise the entire enterprise crumbles" translation in the unhealthy version, "otherwise I loose my power".


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    The population of Russia is declining, and Putin wants to reverse those numbers.

    https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2...win-in-ukraine



    Unfortunately, he hasn't looked into the reasons why the Russian population is declining.

    https://wartranslated.com/russian-so...n-catastrophe/

    "As I told you from the very beginning (and even before the operation) – Russian managers are simply not able to establish a normal life in the new territories. Not because they are fools (although most often they are), but because the entire management system is designed not for facing challenges and implementation of new projects, but for stability and control. That is, to support life in the Russian region – yes, bread is baked there, but to arrange the delivery of bread to Mariupol – no, because this is beyond the limits of competence and usual powers. Plus, the law enforcement system is set up so that anything going beyond the limits of authority is stopped and the initiator is punished.

    Therefore, I think that the new territories will become a zone of humanitarian catastrophe in winter. "

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    Another Russian oil company executive dies when he accidentally falls out a window.

    https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news...e73a7c9949889a

    Windows have to be one of the biggest reasons for death in the Russian Federation. If the Russians used windows instead of artillery shells in Ukraine, they'd be doing a lot better.

    So, which is it? "Putin is a master strategist", or "We are lucky they are so fucking stupid."
    Last edited by Adam Strange; 09-01-2022 at 02:58 PM.

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    The big story now is about Ukraine's counteroffensive in Kherson, which was finally launched (a few days ago) after several months of promotion and buildup. From what I've gathered (I could be wrong), this is Ukraine's last chance to launch a direct offensive this year (before winter rains set in and the ground becomes muddy).

    Russian troops in Kherson are dependent on resupply across the Dnipro river. Using precision-guided munitions, Ukrainian artillery has managed to knock out bridges connecting the city to Russia's supply lines. The Russians are using makeshift pontoon bridges to cross the river, but these are also subject to Ukrainian artillery. Russian troops and artillery in Kherson still have tons of available munitions, though, and have taken stronger defensive positions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    The big story now is about Ukraine's counteroffensive in Kherson, which was finally launched (a few days ago) after several months of promotion and buildup. From what I've gathered (I could be wrong), this is Ukraine's last chance to launch a direct offensive this year (before winter rains set in and the ground becomes muddy).

    Russian troops in Kherson are dependent on resupply across the Dnipro river. Using precision-guided munitions, Ukrainian artillery has managed to knock out bridges connecting the city to Russia's supply lines. The Russians are using makeshift pontoon bridges to cross the river, but these are also subject to Ukrainian artillery. Russian troops and artillery in Kherson still have tons of available munitions, though, and have taken stronger defensive positions.
    Apparently Russia has already launched an information campaign to portray the counteroffensive as a failure - https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ment-august-31

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    Also I guess Ukraine might use feint attacks to draw Russia’s military away from the focus of conflict.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poptart View Post
    Apparently Russia has already launched an information campaign to portray the counteroffensive as a failure - https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ment-august-31
    If Russia says that it’s failing, you can bet that it’s succeeding wildly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poptart View Post
    Also I guess Ukraine might use feint attacks to draw Russia’s military away from the focus of conflict.
    Yeah, I initially hesitated to post anything because we may not know the real purpose of the offensive (and its outcome) for a while. I didn't want to add to the noise of online speculation. But I was also bored, so here we are....

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    By way of Jay in Kyiv, "Many videos of abandoned or devastated Russian positions coming out of Kherson today.."

    https://nitter.net/GirkinGirkin/stat...971764346885#m

    Man, the expression on the face of that soldier!

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    Quote Originally Posted by timber View Post
    I call it the final solution mentality. Once u drop the nuclear bomb, every future decision is framed from that stand point.

    Interesting because now that Covid was a success, China will remember that something so small can bring the world to it's knees.
    Covid and Ukraine war are effectively used to destroy the world, so they can "build [the world] back better", aka make their great reset (through chaos, martial law, destroying currencies and introducing CBDC (people will have to renounce their private property, they will accept to survive), microchiping the cheptel).
    It's not specifically China who is in it, but most of the "leaders" in the world.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    If Russia says that it’s failing, you can bet that it’s succeeding wildly.
    Criterion of truth: Everything the Kremlin says must necessarily be considered false. That's a very reliable metric to figure on what is actually going on.


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    So, there are roughly 30 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTG) stationed in Kherson, according to this: https://on.ft.com/3THFd4c

    At the time, about 13 Russian battalion tactical groups were stationed in the Kherson region. This number has now risen to roughly 30, according to Rochan, an independent military consultancy based in Poland.
    According to Brookings, which was quoting Ukrainian sources, a single BTG deployed to Donbass in 2015 was estimated to be 600-800 soldiers and officers. If we carry that number forward, the size of Russia's deployment in Kherson is roughly 18-24,000 soldiers, give or take. According to this think tank, a BTG contains roughly 700-800 and possibly 900 soldiers.

    I couldn't find recent estimates for the size of Ukraine's army in Kherson (I'll look tomorrow), but it is worth noting that Ukraine's troop figures in Donbass equalled 40-50,000 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61145578) at the start of that battle.

    The "magic ratio" for a frontal breakthrough is 3:1 (https://www.jstor.org/stable/2538780). Even in the best case, if the above figures are relevant, that leaves Ukraine slightly short.

    Russia also heavily outguns Ukraine when it comes to artillery. Russia fires 50-60,000 shells per day, in total, compared to Ukraine's 5-6,000, outgunning Ukrainian artillery by 10:1 in the entire Ukrainian theatre (the ratio in Kherson could well be different). And, unless things change radically, Russia will retain total air supremacy in the areas under its occupation.


    These are straight up estimates from possibly outdated & possibly sketchy sources (yes, including the BBC). Don't take these seriously! Do your own research!! We will, of course, know the outcome sooner or later, and we'll know whether or not the offensive was intended as a distraction. But, as of right now, the fog of war is so thick that it's visible through cataracts.
    Last edited by xerx; 09-03-2022 at 03:59 AM. Reason: clarification

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    Quote Originally Posted by shining View Post
    Covid and Ukraine war are effectively used to destroy the world, so they can "build [the world] back better", aka make their great reset (through chaos, martial law, destroying currencies and introducing CBDC (people will have to renounce their private property, they will accept to survive), microchiping the cheptel).
    It's not specifically China who is in it, but most of the "leaders" in the world.
    False. Most likely India and Pakistan will nuke each other to oblivion regardless of what "world leaders" want, and then all there will be is Gog and Magog in the wastelands trying to shoot the hiding people out of the sky. But Kashmir isn't even on your radar, is it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    So, there are roughly 30 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTG) stationed in Kherson, according to this: https://on.ft.com/3THFd4c



    According to Brookings, which was quoting Ukrainian sources, a single BTG deployed to Donbass in 2015 was estimated to be 600-800 soldiers and officers. If we carry that number forward, the size of Russia's deployment in Kherson is roughly 18-24,000 soldiers, give or take. According to this think tank, a BTG contains roughly 700-800 and possibly 900 soldiers.

    I couldn't find recent estimates for the size of Ukraine's army in Kherson (I'll look tomorrow), but it is worth noting that Ukraine's troop figures in Donbass equalled 40-50,000 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61145578) at the start of that battle.

    The "magic ratio" for a frontal breakthrough is 3:1 (https://www.jstor.org/stable/2538780). Even in the best case, if the above figures are relevant, that leaves Ukraine slightly short.

    Russia also heavily outguns Ukraine when it comes to artillery. Russia fires 50-60,000 shells per day, in total, compared to Ukraine's 5-6,000, outgunning Ukrainian artillery by 10:1 in the entire Ukrainian theatre (the ratio in Kherson could well be different). And, unless things change radically, Russia will retain total air supremacy in the areas under its occupation.


    These are straight up estimates from possibly outdated & possibly sketchy sources (yes, including the BBC). Don't take these seriously! Do your own research!! We will, of course, know the outcome sooner or later, and we'll know whether or not the offensive was intended as a distraction. But, as of right now, the fog of war is so thick that it's visible through cataracts.
    The numbers are so discouraging lol

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    I'd probably upset a lot of people here if i share my actual opinion so.. i'd rather not . Fun thread.
    I AM YOUR HOLY TOTEM
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    I AM YOUR UNCONSCIOUSNESS
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poptart View Post
    The numbers are so discouraging lol
    They are. But if the goal was to get Russia to reroute troops from other theatres, then the plan has worked so far.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    They are. But if the goal was to get Russia to reroute troops from other theatres, then the plan has worked so far.
    “What Is in Our Interest”: India and the Ukraine War - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coeruleum Blue View Post
    False. Most likely India and Pakistan will nuke each other to oblivion regardless of what "world leaders" want, and then all there will be is Gog and Magog in the wastelands trying to shoot the hiding people out of the sky. But Kashmir isn't even on your radar, is it?

    I don't see how it would be such an issue.
    They want to depopulate and to establish control for the survivors on the long run.
    Mass killing is fine with the agenda as long as it stays localized, and so doesn't make too much damage resources-wise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shining View Post
    I don't see how it would be such an issue.
    They want to depopulate and to establish control for the survivors on the long run.
    Mass killing is fine with the agenda as long as it stays localized, and so doesn't make too much damage resources-wise.
    I don't think it will stay localized and I think it will not only drain but destroy resources.

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    War in Ukraine: How rape has reportedly become a weapon : NPR


    Mia Bloom, a professor at Georgia State University and an international security fellow at the think tank New America, says it's important to understand that although rape is a war crime, it is not something that is present in all wars.And danger can come from different directions. In one case noted by The Guardian, a Ukrainian teacher had been dragged into the school library by a Ukrainian soldier who tried to rape her. She reported him to the police and the man was arrested.
    "It's not just a normal part of war. Not all soldiers rape," Bloom tells NPR. Bloom and Cohen are both a part of the Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict project, which collects data on the subject.
    She says because there is variation between conflicts — some have rampant sexual violence, while others have little — there isn't a consistent theory of when and why rape is used in war.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    Another Russian oil company executive dies when he accidentally falls out a window.

    https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news...e73a7c9949889a

    Windows have to be one of the biggest reasons for death in the Russian Federation. If the Russians used windows instead of artillery shells in Ukraine, they'd be doing a lot better.

    So, which is it? "Putin is a master strategist", or "We are lucky they are so fucking stupid."
    TIL what “defenestration” means.

    Members of Russia’s elite are dying in an epidemic of defenestration

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    I would not want to be a citizen of Russia, mainly because the government lies all the time and steals everything worth having.

    As a person who believes in highly moderated Capitalism, I have a great appreciation for the truth. Without the truth, you can't make intelligent decisions.


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    We have the Rush Limbaughs and the Tucker Carlsons, while Russian Authoritarians have this guy:

    https://nitter.net/JuliaDavisNews/st...938337652739#m

    Evidently, there is a large audience for these idiots.

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    The other BRICS countries — a large trading bloc — are also still willing to deal with Russia.

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    This is a Russian-sourced map acknowledging Russia's loss of Vysokopillya (centre), which is a major town. The capture of Vysokopillya was also stated by the ISW (an American think tank).

    According to this source (https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...42334811787264, translated from this Wagner group milblogger: https://t.me/grey_zone/14887), Russian troops lacked air support as Russian aviation was non-existent. The Ukrainians forced a VDV retreat. The Wagner source claims very heavy Ukrainian casualties, but I haven't seen any independent verification of that.

     





    The Ukrainian government wanted to maintain information silence during the offensive, citing understandable tactical reasons. The ISW said the same thing at the start of the offensive. But since they're willing to confirm victories (they probably don't have a choice given the preponderance of social media), I'll take that as a sign that we'll be able to gauge the progress (or lack of progress) of the offensive in the coming days.
    Last edited by xerx; 09-05-2022 at 05:27 AM. Reason: clarification

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    The other BRICS countries — a large trading bloc — are also still willing to deal with Russia.
    I was thinking more in terms of Russia dealing with India since India seems much less mature in some way for all its Vedic heritage, but perhaps the conflict is not centered on anywhere in particular.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coeruleum Blue View Post
    I was thinking more in terms of Russia dealing with India since India seems much less mature in some way for all its Vedic heritage, but perhaps the conflict is not centered on anywhere in particular.
    Less mature?

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    Less mature?
    How I tend to think of the Kashmir Conflict and its apparent likelihood to become a nuclear war.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coeruleum Blue View Post
    likelihood to become a nuclear war.
    It's even more fun when you remember that China is also involved in the conflict.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    It's even more fun when you remember that China is also involved in the conflict.
    Yes, but how likely is China to initiate anything? Anyone with weapons could aggravate it, but most other countries seem too mature in some way to initiate it. I don't even think Israel and Iran would really initiate it any more, though they might aggravate it beyond all belief as everyone probably would once the first was dropped.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coeruleum Blue View Post
    Yes, but how likely is China to initiate anything? Anyone with weapons could aggravate it, but most other countries seem too mature in some way to initiate it. I don't even think Israel and Iran would really initiate it any more, though they might aggravate it beyond all belief as everyone probably would once the first was dropped.
    I recently read that a retired general said the US informed Russia that if Russia used nuclear weapons in Ukraine, they could expect to see conventional bombs destroy most of the military infrastructure inside Russia within days.

    I think that the US approach to helping Ukraine is oriented towards maintaining the pre-Russian invasion status quo.
    The US has told the Ukrainians that they may not use US weapons to attack Russia proper, and Ukraine has not done this, even though this would be standard operating procedure in any normal war.
    Neither has the US given Ukraine weapons that are useful in conquering territory. No F-16 air support (the F-16 is a weapon that integrates with satellites and is truly transforming), no Abrams tanks, no armored personnel carriers.
    Tanks and armored personnel carriers are primarily useful because they protect troops against artillery shrapnel, and allow a force to advance into enemy territory.
    Most of the tanks that the Ukrainians are using were captured from the Russian invaders.

    Iraq was bombed from the air for thirty days before the Abrams were brought in, and they just rolled over the Iraqis. This would be the approach if the US wanted to give the Ukrainians the power to take revenge for the war crimes committed by the Russians.

    If I were Ukrainian, and if I had both F-16s and 500 Abrams tanks, then given Russia’s history of aggression against its neighbors and its consistent practice of breaking its treaties, I wouldn’t stop at the Russian border. I’d try to ensure that Russia could never do what they did to Ukraine, to anyone, ever again.
    (This is exactly why I should never be in politics.)

    But no. The US has given Ukraine only weapons which will attrit Russian capabilities within Ukraine. The US goal is to minimize the risk of a nuclear war, because in a large-scale nuclear exchange, everyone loses.
    Last edited by Adam Strange; 09-05-2022 at 01:27 PM.

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    What I’m hoping for is that the Russian war in Ukraine will be the turning point in the world’s use of carbon fuels. The threat of climate change putting Pakistan underwater doesn’t seem to move the people running the world, but they could probably get behind the goal of bankrupting Russia by breaking the West’s reliance on Russian gas.*
    After all, Russia still has a lot of other mineral wealth that could be picked up cheap if they were bankrupt.

    I hope.


    * Bill Gates is investing in a new nuclear power plant in the U.S. You may not like Gates, but if you were a nerd and had more money than you could ever spend, you might (especially if you were an LIE) look ahead, make some rational decisions (nuclear > carbon), and work towards making the world a better place than when you found it.
    Last edited by Adam Strange; 09-05-2022 at 01:50 PM.

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    Phil Stewart
    @phildstewart
    (Reuters) - Germany will keep two nuclear power stations available until the middle of April next year to serve as an emergency back-up through the winter rather than shutting them down at the end of the year as originally planned, Der Spiegel reported.
    Sep 5, 2022 · 3:13 PM UTC · Twitter Web App



    Marcel Dirsus
    @marceldirsus
    If the Greens go for this (which I think they will), they will have shifted their positions on arms exports, military spending, NATO's nuclear sharing, armed drones, LNG, the extension of coal and these nuclear plants in the space of a few years. It's basically a whole new party




    It's easier to call for saving the world from nuclear energy when

    1.) your Green Party is being generously funded by Putin, and

    2.) when you don't have a gas-funded knife at your throat.


    What the anti-nuclear folks don't tell you is that coal plants emit more radioactivity than nuclear plants, because coal is slightly radioactive and the coal plants put 100% of that radioactivity into the air.

    As far as I can see, the only downsides to nuclear are:

    1. Bombing a nuclear plant with a nuclear bomb will make the area uninhabitable for thousands of years,
    2. There is only about two centuries of nuclear fuel available on earth, if it were to supplant coal,
    3. Nuclear plants are a bit less "efficient" than coal plants at converting fuel to electricity because they are presently run at safer and lower temperatures. However, this is a perfectionist's argument, and this property of nuclear plants is invisible when compared to the damage that CO2 does to the planet.

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    This guy better stay away from windows.

    "This is not according to plan," – deputy Konstantin Zatulin for the first time on federal TV said that the so-called "special operation" does not reach the goals."

    https://nitter.net/Flash_news_ua/sta...088631586816#r

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    Quote Originally Posted by timber View Post
    Dude why are you wasting your time on this line?
    Well, to any policy wonks like myself who pay attention to US Foreign Policy, it's a popular joke that Israel runs the show in that department. Looking at the number of Neocons and Neolibs who seem to have all the influence and given how many of them have dual "citizenship" in the U.S. and Israel (an idiotic atrocity and critical intelligence error as you cannot have two masters and it's pretty fucking clear which one they love and which one they hate to make it even worse) you can see how and why any rational person would conclude that the current War in Ukraine must have at least the passive/tacit approval of Tel Aviv as it were.

    I personally don't think Israel gives a fuck about it. At least not officially. Aforementioned Neocons and Neolibs do have a hardcore ideological hatred for Russia though. It's a lecture to explain but let's just say the ideological descendants to Trotsky are still rather sore about losing out to Lenin and Stalin and would like nothing more than to take out their frustrations and rage on the Russian people. It ain't about anything rational for them at this point. They're driven by hatred and wouldn't mind glassing the planet if it meant executing their will on that front. Thankfully they are but a faction within the PTB and as I've always pointed out they are not monolithic like many "Conspiracy Theorists" claim and thank the good lord for that as if they were we really would be fucked.

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