I agree with you about the rot that pervades Russian society. I have no problem with any of the Russians I've met here in the States, but it seems like the entire Russian nation needs a reset from its present government. And I just don't see that happening any time soon.
I don't actually think that Russia will break up. Instead, I think that sanctions will cause it to descend into a more and more primitive mess as the microchips which run everything in a modern society get older and older and aren't replaced with the stuff that the rest of the world uses. Russia might be headed towards being the next economic Afghanistan, with the equivalent of a Saudi government running things.
Sort of the worst of all possible worlds.
I'm honestly torn between saying that the Russian people brought this on themselves, or saying that they were helpless bystanders in this train wreck. The fact is that we don't influence our own government much more than they influence theirs. The differences are slight when you think about it. Our rulers have more finesse, but it still took twenty years of 95% popular opposition to get past the influence of the military industrial complex and get out of Afghanistan, and I suspect that this happened only because someone decided that there were limited opportunities in the near term future for them to profit in Afghanistan.