2020 Disunited States of America Election

[Socionics Is A Cult]

FiveThirtyEight currently gives a 74.675% chance of the Democrats winning the Presidency, the House, and the Senate (including the 2 independents in the Diplomat total).

[FreelancePoliceman]

Can’t wait to see which country the progressives will bomb this time!

[ouronis]

I keep trying to decide when I was moved off the main timeline

[Aramas]

Good, I’ve had enough with trump lol, it is completely surreal.

I keep having thoughts like, "Is it over!? Is it finally going to be over?!"

[Hot Scalding Gayser]

Sadly I don't trust those sources. Didn't they say something similiar about Hillary, how much in the lead she was winning etc. and then look what happened. It's like they are trying to gaslight people into "doing the right thing" but that might backfire.

How is that any different from what happened before? Honest question, cuz I guess my Te is shitty with those things.

It's probably not going to personally affect my life much who wins- but it is a few people I care about (which is why I'm always liberal democrat) I don't value selfish, sociopathic money making that hurt my closed loved ones over liberal politics (but liberals are often too pussy-ish like my dad said and we could be a little more bad-ass and aggressive. Or a lot more.)

I wish we could have true liberal revolutions and more real socially progressive stuff rather than kinda like Deep State power-hungry centrists - but at least that's better than the alternative I guess.

And the Trump team has been pretty desperate seeking to me, and like insecure bullies- calling my house with those stupid messages about to vote for them where Biden asks me more politely and nicer (like a fag) and so I like Biden better for that reason alone but of course I've never really been happy or excited about any candidate.

Also some dumb Trumpites send me those spam messages on my cell phone. It's like fuck off. I'm going to do the opposite of what you say neener neener neener. I don't respond well to pushiness you idiot.

Being some obnoxious and pushy bully isn't appealing to me. I don't care how 'confident' Trump is, it doesn't impress me much. Acting shyer, more polite (again like a ******) is the way to my heart. Which is why I'm always left-wing really.

[Aramas]

Sadly I don't trust those sources. Didn't they say something similiar about Hillary, how much in the lead she was winning etc. and then look what happened. It's like they are trying to gaslight people into "doing the right thing" but that might backfire.

How is that any different from what happened before? Honest question, cuz I guess my Te is shitty with those things.

It's probably not going to personally affect my life much who wins- but it is a few people I care about (which is why I'm always liberal democrat) I don't value selfish, sociopathic money making that hurt my closed loved ones over liberal politics (but liberals are often too pussy-ish like my dad said and we could be a little more bad-ass and aggressive. Or a lot more.)

I wish we could have true liberal revolutions and more real socially progressive stuff rather than kinda like Deep State power-hungry centrists - but at least that's better than the alternative I guess.

And the Trump team has been pretty desperate seeking to me, and like insecure bullies- calling my house with those stupid messages about to vote for them where Biden asks me more politely and nicer (like a fag) and so I like Biden better for that reason alone but of course I've never really been happy or excited about any candidate.

Also some dumb Trumpites send me those spam messages on my cell phone. It's like fuck off. I'm going to do the opposite of what you say. I don't respond well to pushiness you idiot.

Being some obnoxious and pushy bully isn't appealing to me. I don't care how 'confident' Trump is, it doesn't impress me much. Acting shyer, more polite (again like a ******) is the way to my heart. Which is why I'm always left-wing really.

There's one guy who predicted that the outcome of the 2016 election would be Trump, not Hillary. He was right. His name is Alan Lichtman. He predicts Biden will win this election. Look up the 13 Keys if you want to know more.

[FreelancePoliceman]

There's one guy who predicted that the outcome of the 2016 election would be Trump, not Hillary. He was right. His name is Alan Lichtman. He predicts Biden will win this election. Look up the 13 Keys if you want to know more.

Not interested in that, but it’s obvious Trump has lost a lot of steam. His campaign isn’t being managed very well and he’s lost a lot of the appeal he had in 2016; he’s no longer the anti-establishment figure but the establishment. He didn’t drain the swamp, he didn’t build a wall (some added fences don’t count), and he’s stopped providing counter-narratives to media slanders. Also a good chunk of the country, namely the SNL-watching crowd, gets a kick out of mocking him and thinking they’re part of a #resistance for doing so, and will vote against him from a sense of self-importance even though they probably couldn’t name 5 things about his admin they don’t like; meanwhile he’s not really promising anything to anyone except that he’s not Biden or Harris.

[Aramas]

Not interested in that, but it’s obvious Trump has lost a lot of steam. His campaign isn’t being managed very well and he’s lost a lot of the appeal he had in 2016; he’s no longer the anti-establishment figure but the establishment. He didn’t drain the swamp, he didn’t build a wall (some added fences don’t count), and he’s stopped providing counter-narratives to media slanders. Also a good chunk of the country, namely the SNL-watching crowd, gets a kick out of mocking him and thinking they’re part of a #resistance for doing so, and will vote against him from a sense of self-importance even though they probably couldn’t name 5 things about his admin they don’t like; meanwhile he’s not really promising anything to anyone except that he’s not Biden or Harris.

I wasn't even replying to you, but you're going to tell me you aren't interested in something I was saying to someone else? Bit strange.

Trump didn't drain the swamp. He was the swamp.

[FreelancePoliceman]

I wasn't even replying to you, but you're going to tell me you aren't interested in something I was saying to someone else? Bit strange.

Trump didn't drain the swamp. He was the swamp.

I said I wasn’t interested to explain why I hadn’t read the link. I just jumped in.

[xerx]

If you boys end up with a "President for Life", there's always the option of conceding defeat and going back.

[SGF]

If you boys end up with a "President for Life", there's always the option of conceding defeat and going back.

Idk what is worse 2x 74+ year old senile geriatric old farts or a demented 94 yo pretending she can still shit in the loo.

retirement age exists for a good reason.

[xerx]

Idk what is worse 2x 74+ year old senile geriatric old farts or a demented 94 yo pretending she can still shit in the loo.

retirement age exists for a good reason.

I don't know about that, the old girl may be playing her cards close to her chest.

[Socionics Is A Cult]

For the Senate, FiveThirtyEight currently has:

a 84.74% chance of a Democrat gain (or flip as Americans seem to call them) in the Colorado election
a 80.575% of a Democrat gain in the Arizona special election
a 63.4025% of a Democrat gain in the North Carolina election
a 63.235% of a Democrat gain in the Georgia special election
a 59.3825% of a Democrat gain in the Maine election
a 53.9925% of a Democrat gain in the Iowa election

a 58.0375% chance of a Republican hold in the Georgia regular election
a 65.8225% chance of a Republican hold in the Montana regular election
a 75.0575% chance of a Republican hold in the Alaska election
a 76.0525% chance of a Republican hold in the Kansas election
a 77% chance of a Republican hold in the South Carolina election
a 85.82% chance of a Republican hold in the Mississippi election
a 86.07% chance of a Republican hold in the Texas election

a 81.04% chance of a Republican gain in the Alabama election

a 82.5525% chance of a Democrat hold in the Michigan election

[Aramas]

If you boys end up with a "President for Life", there's always the option of conceding defeat and going back.

Elizabeth is about done. Diana is the only one I'd accept as her replacement.

[xerx]

There's literally nothing less American than having a king / president for life.

[Socionics Is A Cult]

There's literally nothing less American than having a king / president for life.

Good point.

Chelsea vs. Ivanka for 2024?

[FreelancePoliceman]

There's literally nothing less American than having a king / president for life.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Norton

[xerx]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Norton

Ah! Yes. I've heard of him......

[Computer Loser]

[Ave]

One of the reasons polls don't reflect the outcome in terms which states are won by which candidate is redistricting.

[flames]

Trump’s entire presidency has felt like living in a surreal alternate reality. A twilight zone.

[Adam Strange]

Trump’s entire presidency has felt like living in a surreal alternate reality. A twilight zone.

Yeah. An alternate reality where only he matters. Welcome to the world of Narcissists, where they can do no wrong and everything is your fault.

[flames]

Yeah. An alternate reality where only he matters. Welcome to the world of Narcissists, where they can do no wrong and everything is your fault.

Yes, and the worst part of it all is that he’s showcased how effortlessly a narcissist can climb to the top.

[Aramas]

Yes, and the worst part of it all is that he’s showcased how effortlessly a narcissist can climb to the top.

It's mainly the highly unrestricted mouth and the unfailing self-belief that lets them do it imo.

[Adam Strange]

Trump rallies have killed an estimated 700 people.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3722299

Nevertheless, Trump keeps having them and people keep attending them, although the authors of the paper say that not all the dead attended the rallies.

[Nobody]

I'm disappointed in my local government. I sent in a mail-in ballet a month in advance of November 3, they got it in 3 days and it's not showing as counted on their online tracker...

So I can go to the polls, but who knows if that will get counted either...

[Adam Strange]

I'm disappointed in my local government. I sent in a mail-in ballet a month in advance of November 3, they got it in 3 days and it's not showing as counted on their online tracker...

So I can go to the polls, but who knows if that will get counted either...

Vote early, vote often, but vote.

[Tonatiuh]

[Socionics Is A Cult]

The way the United States is handling voting is not what I'd expect for a first rate democracy.

[Socionics Is A Cult]

https://news.yahoo.com/104-old-ruth-...130000932.html

[Aster]

Husband went to go vote and there was a huge line and he said ‘f that line, I’ve got shit to do. I’ll go on Election Day.’ I told him he should have gotten it over with. Wonder what it’s going to be like on Election Day, and the weather is suppose to be nice then (he works outside). So

[Aramas]

The way the United States is handling voting is not what I'd expect for a first rate democracy.

It's not a first rate democracy. The UK is a constitutional monarchy still and they have better democracy than we do. Except for that Brexit thing. A simple majority for that big of a change was a bad idea.

[Socionics Is A Cult]

It's not a first rate democracy. The UK is a constitutional monarchy still and they have better democracy than we do. Except for that Brexit thing. A simple majority for that big of a change was a bad idea.

I'm sorry for implying it was. I know in the Democracy Index it is not regarded top tier - it's in the "Flawed democracy" category.

America is very strong when it comes to democratic involvement at all levels of society, including things like class president and small town mayor. Although the electoral college and disproportionate senate weightings to states does screw things up. (The UK does in effect have an electoral college when it comes to deciding its leader, except British people don't actually vote for their leader. The second biggest party in terms of the popular vote could gain power, but that's not as absurd as having a specific vote on your leader in a two-horse race where the person who comes second becomes President).

The US suffers very badly with petty attempts at disenfranchising citizens from the vote.

[Aramas]

I'm sorry for implying it was. I know in the Democracy Index it is not regarded top tier - it's in the "Flawed democracy" category.

America is very strong when it comes to democratic involvement at all levels of society, including things like class president and small town mayor. Although the electoral college and disproportionate senate weightings to states does screw things up. (The UK does in effect have an electoral college when it comes to deciding its leader, except British people don't actually vote for their leader. The second biggest party in terms of the popular vote could gain power, but that's not as absurd as having a specific vote on your leader in a two-horse race where the person who comes second becomes President).

The US suffers very badly with petty attempts at disenfranchising citizens from the vote.

The idea of the electoral college was to prevent a popular demagogue. As well as keep smaller states from getting too pissed off. Well, the smaller states are pissed off anyway and the minority elected the demagogue. Who knew. The old standard of parties choosing their own candidates would have prevented Trump from gaining the presidency.

[Socionics Is A Cult]

The idea of the electoral college was to prevent a popular demagogue. As well as keep smaller states from getting too pissed off. Well, the smaller states are pissed off anyway and the minority elected the demagogue. Who knew. The old standard of parties choosing their own candidates would have prevented Trump from gaining the presidency.

I can certainly see the wisdom in not wanting to piss off Montana.

[Santa Claus]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexled...-us-travelers/

[Socionics Is A Cult]

I think this adds to the signs that Biden is heading for a win:



It would be terribly, terribly tragic if voters intending to vote Trump are disproportionately affected by Election Day crowds.

[Socionics Is A Cult]

This link seems useful if you want to know when all the significant events of Election Night are likely to happen: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ight-they-get/

[Joe Biden]

Shit's about to get real up in here

[xerx]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-some-of-them/

^ An interesting article which makes the case against the "shy Trump voter" explanation of inaccurate polls. FWIW, the Trump voters that I've personally encountered have not been shy. LOL.