Welcome to the Post Peak-Oil World

[Capitalist Pig]

page 4 snypa

[Nico1e]

Don't worry about my health and it's more like looking at Gorgon Medusa.

You're exactly right, why didn't I think of that?

[Rick]

This excellent report says pretty much everything I wanted to in this thread, while providing more convincing data. Read here:

http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetterALL_1Q11.pdf

[Jarno]

Oil price dropped 9% today.

Gasoline dropped 1 cent at the station :-(

[The Ineffable]

1) Oil is not something which we'll immediately run out of... a) we'll see signs of extraction slowing first, b) the limit from OPEC removed, and c) the price gradually rise as supply diminishes.
2) Even if we do run out of oil, we already have developed other energy sources to use. Fuel from corn, hydrogen-based fuel, more efficient energy harnessed from wind power, etc. etc. The reason we don't use these already is because it's not quite cost effective yet; our abundance of oil is cheap in cost. We'll probably replace gasoline pumps in the next 20 years or so anyway, and be fueling up with a hydrogen-based energy source.

So sorry, but "because we have no alternatives" is simply misinformed. America will not run out of oil anytime soon, and when/if we do, it will neither be "nasty" nor "a great shock".

I used to say the same thing before, but I know an SLE who studies this for years and he's convinced an oil crash is imminent and that we are not prepared for it. Both possibilities are plausible, though what makes the difference here is the *actual numbers*, the facts. Also, we are used to believe "that can't happen, they take care of it", but some cases demonstrate that we may be wrong (like the IPV4 story). Also, don't forget oil is used in a lot of different areas, including agriculture. I recommend you a documentary: A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash - if the data there is correct, we actually are in trouble, regardless of what we want to believe. Please watch it if you can, you'll see how many details are to be considered.

The alternatives are really rather experimental. Of course they will eventually cope up with our problems, though the question is when? We live in an accelerated rythm of consumption which may lead to an abrupt fall in reserves. The trick may be the good knowledge of the discrepancy between consumption on one hand and the real reserves + advancement of alternatives on the other. There are a lot of challenges which were not addressed, businessmen and politicians may not even do enough.

You have a point, we can only speculate. We don't know the real numbers - I don't, at least. That guy I talked about made some predictions which were not truly fulfilled. I recall 2-3 years ago he made a bet with a friend of his about the oil prices and he won the bet - which involved several months or half a year, though later the prices unexpectedly fell again. So I don't know...

[The Ineffable]

And as for the conclusion... I encourage people to get a job away from home, outside of their comfort zones, so they can see the world, and grow. My least favorite statistic all-time, is that 50% of Americans live within 50 miles of where they were born. In today's society of international travel, with planes, buses, trains, etc., it's amazing how little people will step outside their bubbles and try something new.

Sorry for the rant. And sorry to get off-topic. But to tie it back on-track. In the future, as energy gets cheaper, travel gets less expensive, and families continue to become more widespread as people are willing to move for higher pay, and jobs get outsourced in a global economy, people will get more and more out of touch with extended family and continue to have less reason/desire to host big weddings in the future.

A dangerous reasoning. You took our progress the 2 last centuries as a rule of thumb but didn't check what's behind it. And I don't see the point in trying to stick to a lifestyle of excess either...

[Words]

http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html

As for oil:

http://guardian.co.uk/environment/20...t&type=article

http://www.lowcarboneconomy.com/prof..._unveiled/6983

Scotland has the capacity to produce 6x it's energy needs from renewables (not nuclear) without having a negative impact on the environment.

As for it's oil reserves, the plan is to put the profits into subsidising the petrol prices.

What's needed imo is for countries to look inwards for solutions, not just at globalisation.

You don't have to be an ultra nationalist, just a civic nationalist.

As for the American economy, if it keeps going as it is, I've heard 10 years until a collapse, with the advice to invest in silver, as paper money could turn out worthless.

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?desktop...MJnzhMYY&gl=GB