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Thread: Will the economy rebound next year?

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    Default Will the economy rebound next year?

    Your opinion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tcaudilllg View Post
    Your opinion.
    no

    What else do you want to know?
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    very unlikely. Infact I'm skeptical it will ever rebound to where it was.
    INTp

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    Things change and not all change is bad.

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    Significant recoveries are being made around the world, but not in the United States, mainly due to the economic "stimulus" that will only deepen the recession and possibly cause a depression.

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    Quote Originally Posted by discojoe View Post
    Significant recoveries are being made around the world, but not in the United States, mainly due to the economic "stimulus" that will only deepen the recession and possibly cause a depression.
    Well I don't think you can prove that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tcaudilllg View Post
    Well I don't think you can prove that.
    I don't need to prove something that's obvious.

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    Quote Originally Posted by discojoe View Post
    I don't need to prove something that's obvious.
    Dude if it's not obvious to me it's not obvious to most.

    LIIs, do you agree with DJ?

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    Discojoe is correct. History speaks for itself in this matter. The policies of interventionism created the conditions for the current crisis, they will surely serve only to prolong and deepen its impact.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Capitalist Pig View Post
    Discojoe is correct. History speaks for itself in this matter. The policies of interventionism created the conditions for the current crisis, they will surely serve only to prolong and deepen its impact.
    It does not. The Bush economic stimulus in particular cannot be shown to have exacrebated the 2002 recession.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tcaudilllg View Post
    It does not. The Bush economic stimulus in particular cannot be shown to have exacrebated the 2002 recession.
    Aside from the silly spending, didn't that stimulus include all kinds of tax breaks?

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    Yes but so did the Obama package. (too many, probably)

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    I'll look into this later today, but I'm pretty sure that the Obama tax cuts were just a bunch of "fuzzy math" misleading bullshit.

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    No. It'll take a year and a half. Christmas will help. Obama has nothing to do with it; it's a cycle.

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    As I understand, US economy is growing right now. So, hasn't it already rebounded? What do you consider as a rebound?
    Obsequium amicos, veritas odium parit

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    Quote Originally Posted by FDG View Post
    As I understand, US economy is growing right now. So, hasn't it already rebounded? What do you consider as a rebound?
    A rebound is when everyone I know who wants a job has a job.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ritella View Post
    Over here, we'll put up with (almost) all of your crap. You just have to use the secret phrase: "I don't value it. It's related to <insert random element here>, which is not in my quadra."
    Quote Originally Posted by Aquagraph View Post
    Abbie is so boring and rigid it's awesome instead of boring and rigid. She seems so practical and down-to-the-ground.

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    It's going to be a depression.
    "Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat."
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    I don't think the economy will recover next year. I think it could take a good three to five years, maybe even more, to see any real economic upswing in the United States.

    I see this as a cycle, too, and I agree that the economic stimulus is a problem. To me, it's a double-edged sword, maybe. Because so much propping up has been done--particularly of the real-estate market--things are more confusing than ever. When things get this confusing and no one can see clearly what will happen next owing to tampering, the economy can't grow. People wait, people wonder. They take no chances. They don't invest. They don't start new ventures. They limit hiring. And so on.

    And when we know that the economy is not behaving in a "natural" way but is being propped up, the underlying and scary question is, "What will happen if the props are removed?" The answer is pretty negative.

    Just an IEI wandering through with her probably useless opinions on ... the economy! This is based on living in California for the past six years. Cali remains deeply economically troubled overall.

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    See that's the problem. You're not supposed to consider the stimulus, you're not supposed to see it as a part of the economy. You're supposed to look at its effect. You're not supposed to try to game the system or hedge your bets on government intervention because that's unethical. And that's the problem still: the business community is still as unethical as ever.

    I think it has to do with LIEs thinking they have something over the IEIs.

    What they need to do is raise the taxes on the rich already, because that will wake them up from their fantasies of government bailouts for their millions very quickly. Once they see that government intervention means they make LESS money, they will stop thinking in terms of it very quickly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenwings View Post
    I see this as a cycle, too, and I agree that the economic stimulus is a problem. To me, it's a double-edged sword, maybe. Because so much propping up has been done--particularly of the real-estate market--things are more confusing than ever. When things get this confusing and no one can see clearly what will happen next owing to tampering, the economy can't grow. People wait, people wonder. They take no chances. They don't invest. They don't start new ventures. They limit hiring. And so on.
    This is called deflation and it's a part of the cycle of recovering from busts. But you're wrong that the economy can not grow. You're dead wrong that investment doesn't happen at all. While you will see a short-term slump in sales and final output from reduced spending, you're ignoring capital goods -- and especially early stage capital goods that are time-consuming to produce. In a recession, the interest rates are lower, and so borrowing costs are lower. So people can begin investing in long-term production and bring them to the market by the time people are ready to begin consuming again. Remember: People don't save for fun, they save for future consumption.

    So more savings -> more net investment at the early stage -> more consumption. . . over time. The resources previously tied up in late stage production -- goods that are near market, like retail inventories -- are simply reallocated to goods in an early stage of production -- like concept design or research and development. Basically what happens is consumption then increases, meeting and even exceeding previous levels, with gross investment growing exponentially with the rest, and voila! You have sustainable growth. That is, investment backed by real savings that translates into the consumption of marketable goods produced.

    This is an extremely -- I mean extremely -- terse summary of what Friedrich von Hayek devoted a series of lectures to (later turned into a book, Prices and Production {1931}), and is integral to Austrian trade cycle theory. Ugh, FDG, help me out here lol. Where the fuck is Roger Garrison when you need him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenwings View Post
    And when we know that the economy is not behaving in a "natural" way but is being propped up, the underlying and scary question is, "What will happen if the props are removed?" The answer is pretty negative.
    Negative in the short-term, perhaps, but the long-term growth is unimaginably massive, and fast.

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    If the economy rebounds, Dennis Rodman will grab it!
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1981slater View Post
    If the economy rebounds, Dennis Rodman will grab it!
    Lol, I thought about the same joke but with mj
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capitalist Pig View Post
    This is called deflation and it's a part of the cycle of recovering from busts. But you're wrong that the economy can not grow. You're dead wrong that investment doesn't happen at all. While you will see a short-term slump in sales and final output from reduced spending, you're ignoring capital goods -- and especially early stage capital goods that are time-consuming to produce. In a recession, the interest rates are lower, and so borrowing costs are lower. So people can begin investing in long-term production and bring them to the market by the time people are ready to begin consuming again. Remember: People don't save for fun, they save for future consumption.

    So more savings -> more net investment at the early stage -> more consumption. . . over time. The resources previously tied up in late stage production -- goods that are near market, like retail inventories -- are simply reallocated to goods in an early stage of production -- like concept design or research and development. Basically what happens is consumption then increases, meeting and even exceeding previous levels, with gross investment growing exponentially with the rest, and voila! You have sustainable growth. That is, investment backed by real savings that translates into the consumption of marketable goods produced.

    This is an extremely -- I mean extremely -- terse summary of what Friedrich von Hayek devoted a series of lectures to (later turned into a book, Prices and Production {1931}), and is integral to Austrian trade cycle theory. Ugh, FDG, help me out here lol. Where the fuck is Roger Garrison when you need him?

    Negative in the short-term, perhaps, but the long-term growth is unimaginably massive, and fast.
    Thanks, CP. I'm for sure NOT an economics expert. I read various things on the topic. I'm very concerned about the depth of the problems in California. There are some regions there, including the area I have been living in until recently, that are not going to recover easily. But in some of those cases, the bubble itself formed quickly, like a secondary bubble in response to pressures in other regions, and popped hard.

    Always happy to learn more ...

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    But I agree that stimulus cannot bring back jobs. The situation is more complex than a simple tax cut though because in the situation we have a case that we didn't have before, where the crisis was intentionally created by a group with the intent to manipulate social conditions. Therefore by giving the "job creators" money we are rewarding their creation of the recession. This means they have incentive to create more recessions.

    The rich cannot be rewarded. They must be punished.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tcaudilllg View Post
    The rich cannot be rewarded. They must be punished.
    I don't see the relevance of punishment... I'd say rather that things need to be arranged so that their best future course of action is the most beneficial for everyone else as well.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Brilliand View Post
    I don't see the relevance of punishment... I'd say rather that things need to be arranged so that their best future course of action is the most beneficial for everyone else as well.

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    Punishment only works when the person being punished sees it as actually arising from their actions. Hence why inconsistent punishment is fairly useless...



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    Socialism is how you win.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenwings View Post
    I don't think the economy will recover next year. I think it could take a good three to five years, maybe even more, to see any real economic upswing in the United States.

    I see this as a cycle, too, and I agree that the economic stimulus is a problem. To me, it's a double-edged sword, maybe. Because so much propping up has been done--particularly of the real-estate market--things are more confusing than ever. When things get this confusing and no one can see clearly what will happen next owing to tampering, the economy can't grow. People wait, people wonder. They take no chances. They don't invest. They don't start new ventures. They limit hiring. And so on.

    And when we know that the economy is not behaving in a "natural" way but is being propped up, the underlying and scary question is, "What will happen if the props are removed?" The answer is pretty negative.

    Just an IEI wandering through with her probably useless opinions on ... the economy! This is based on living in California for the past six years. Cali remains deeply economically troubled overall.
    Excellent use of Ni

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    Quote Originally Posted by FDG View Post
    Lol, I thought about the same joke but with mj
    Rodman grabs the rebound, gives the ball to Jordan... woosh... he dunks and and aaaand and two more trillions in PIIGS debt







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    The reason the economy has NOT rebounded in the past two years I can illustrate with two real life first hand knowledge examples.

    I was on a business trip a few weeks ago and I was asking one of the owners of the business I was visiting how things have been. Terrible two years ago and they had to lay off a bunch of people, but stabilizing and picking up in the past year. They were at the point where they were considering hiring back some of the people that they had laid off before, but were too afraid to having NO IDEA how all of the recently passed laws were going to affect them. There's nothing worse for small business owners or for any business than having to lay off employees. This particular business relied on an external accounting firm to handle their books and everything, and even they hadn't managed to sort out the gigantic mess that the current administration has created with all of their highly interventionalist new laws. So they're in a holding pattern. Good or bad, the fear of unintended consequences and not knowing WTF is really happening is preventing businesses from trying to expand because for all they know they're going to get nailed with a ton more taxes or their health care plans will go FUBAR and they just don't want to deal with it.

    Case #2. The company my wife works for wants to expand. A particular type of service in our area is really lacking and there's definitely money to be made. Problem is, in order to expand they need to construct a new facility to offer the services, and they can't secure the financing they need. Why is that? Perhaps because a highly interventionalist government has sucked in excess of 1 TRILLION dollars out of the financial markets, which makes it really hard for other businesses or people to get financing of their own. And we all know how successful our government has been at actually creating jobs with that 1 friggin trillion dollars, so what good has it done?

    History is repeating itself. The Great Depression was only the Great Depression and not just a temporary recession because very BAD government policies prolonged things and only made them a lot worse. Fast forward to 2009 and it's the same shit, different day. Government needs to get the hell out of the way and stop trying to "fix" things.

    Regardless of whether the Republicans take over none, one, or both houses of Congress in the elections next month, I think these liberal socialist Democrats are going to be marginalized enough that they'll be impotent. Making ALL of the Bush tax cuts permanent won't punish small businesses and will encourage them to consider hiring again, repealing the health care takeover will lessen fears on that (even our politicians don't know exactly what's in it!!), and returning unspent 'stimulus' funds to the market will make it available for other businesses, like my wife's, so that they can expand.
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    Quote Originally Posted by tcaudilllg View Post
    Well I don't think you can prove that.
    Well, just wait for that next $ 3 trillion quantitative easing to hit the US economy. You can even speculate against that by buing stock now, selling it after QE2, and convert the dollars you made into gold and leave other people with the worthless paper money.
    Last edited by consentingadult; 10-09-2010 at 01:45 PM.
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