The Ukraine Question

[Adam Strange]

I still disagree that breaking that place up will be a win for humanity. Opening Russia up is like opening Pandora's box.

Putin may be a deserving target of hatred, but he's just the scum that rose to the top. There is a lot more scum hiding beneath the surface of Russian society.

I agree with you about the rot that pervades Russian society. I have no problem with any of the Russians I've met here in the States, but it seems like the entire Russian nation needs a reset from its present government. And I just don't see that happening any time soon.

I don't actually think that Russia will break up. Instead, I think that sanctions will cause it to descend into a more and more primitive mess as the microchips which run everything in a modern society get older and older and aren't replaced with the stuff that the rest of the world uses. Russia might be headed towards being the next economic Afghanistan, with the equivalent of a Saudi government running things.

Sort of the worst of all possible worlds.

I'm honestly torn between saying that the Russian people brought this on themselves, or saying that they were helpless bystanders in this train wreck. The fact is that we don't influence our own government much more than they influence theirs. The differences are slight when you think about it. Our rulers have more finesse, but it still took twenty years of 95% popular opposition to get past the influence of the military industrial complex and get out of Afghanistan, and I suspect that this happened only because someone decided that there were limited opportunities in the near term future for them to profit in Afghanistan.

[Adam Strange]

When I first arrived at college knowing absolutely nothing about anything, I was assigned a very smart, very introverted, over-weight and sloppy roommate. He asked me if I wanted to play chess with him.

To me, chess was a game like ice skating or making cookies. Something I wasn't good at and didn't care that much about, but sure, I'll try it.

I knew very little about chess strategy, but he knew a lot. My approach was to carry out these magnificent sorties across the board, and his intent was to humiliate me.

His approach with me was to exchange pieces at first so that he "won" the exchange. (All chess pieces have a value.) After that, he would just play a game of attrition, exchanging one piece after another, but because he had a superior point count, (and because he was playing for blood), he'd end up winning. Every time.

It gradually dawned on me that he wasn't playing for fun or for recreation, but rather was playing to prove that he was a better person than I was.

In Ukraine, Russia has made some initial gains in territory and is now playing a game of attrition. Since their army is three times the size of the Ukrainian army, there is a good chance that this strategy will work for them and will win them some more territory, since it has worked so well in the past in other countries.
Ukraine has said that it needs a no-fly zone, anti-aircraft missiles, and more tanks. The EU is equivocating.


One day, after yet another of these humiliating trade chess games, I went to the library and took out a book called "How to Win Chess Games Quickly", by Fred Reinfeld. (https://archive.org/details/howtowin...0rein/mode/2up)
I brought the book back to my room and started playing through the games in the book and, let me just say, my understanding of chess was transformed. I still wasn't very good, but at least I now knew approximately what I should be doing.

After three days of practicing with myself, I played chess with my roommate again and kicked. his. ass.
And then I did it again. And again. And then he refused to play with me.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...17296138031104

[xerx]

I agree with you about the rot that pervades Russian society. I have no problem with any of the Russians I've met here in the States, but it seems like the entire Russian nation needs a reset from its present government. And I just don't see that happening any time soon.

I don't actually think that Russia will break up. Instead, I think that sanctions will cause it to descend into a more and more primitive mess as the microchips which run everything in a modern society get older and older and aren't replaced with the stuff that the rest of the world uses. Russia might be headed towards being the next economic Afghanistan, with the equivalent of a Saudi government running things.

Sort of the worst of all possible worlds.

I couldn't give you a numerical probability of Russia's breakup (I'm not in the business of making predictions, and I hope that I didn't give that impression). I only think about it / keep bringing it up because it'd be a cataclysmic shift in world affairs.

And, because there is a pervasive desire for 'regime change' among members of the American political class, it isn't audacious to assume that someone influential has contemplated a similar project for Russia — Victoria Nuland is one neoconservative currently serving in the Biden administration (her husband co-founded The Project for a New American Century; she was an adviser to Dick Cheney during the Iraq war). At a minimum, opposition to Russian geopolitical resurgence by hawkish officials, irrespective of Putin's aggressive foreign policy (or even a Putin presidency), isn't out of the question.

Russia doesn't even have to break up formally. Something called "Russia" can still exist on paper — with its own flag, anthem and currency — but having regions that take marching orders from foreign governments across some spectrum of diplomatic and economic affiliation.

China is an obvious candidate to move into eastern parts of Russia. Given historical and religious ties, parts of the Caucasus would be favourable towards Turkish dominance and patronage. Turkey (a NATO member) was even credibly accused of providing material assistance to the Chechen rebels in the early 2000's.

I'm honestly torn between saying that the Russian people brought this on themselves, or saying that they were helpless bystanders in this train wreck. The fact is that we don't influence our own government much more than they influence theirs. The differences are slight when you think about it. Our rulers have more finesse, but it still took twenty years of 95% popular opposition to get past the influence of the military industrial complex and get out of Afghanistan, and I suspect that this happened only because someone decided that there were limited opportunities in the near term future for them to profit in Afghanistan.

I couldn't tell you, but if my reading of Russian history is correct, there is something deeply masochistic about the Russian soul.

[xerx]

A less discussed possibility is that Russia comes out of the sanctions having achieved a strategic victory over the United States. The invasion was obviously a tactical blunder, but it may turn out to have been a successful strategic gambit.

Although I could be wrong, my impression is that there is a great deal of conviction about sanctions being decisive weapons. But sanctioning the central bank of a G8 country has never been attempted before. Unlike Iran or Venezuela, Russia can hit back:

* Putin has asked for gas to be paid in roubles instead of dollars or euros. Source. That would definitely prop up the rouble. Is it enough and can Europe seriously reject this? I don't know.

* By freezing Russian assets, the United States' reputation as a safe haven has taken a hit. Countries want to be insulated from the economic effects of their political decisions and will look for other ways to store their money. It might come to nothing, but a petroyuan could be a thing alongside the petrorouble.

* A large proportion of the human race inhabits countries that have not condemned Russia. China hasn't. None of the other BRIC countries have either. India is still dependent on the purchase of Russian weapons and the servicing of existing weapons (as one of the non-aligned countries, and because Pakistan was an American ally during the Cold War, India sought trade with the Soviet Union and still maintains a Soviet arsenal). India has also increased its purchase of Russian oil. These aren't substitutes but are nevertheless large markets. Russian commodities (like wheat and minerals) are still in demand. Putin is still making a ton of money.

* Russia's economy has been hardened by years of sanctions. Import substitution has been a thing for a while (Russia even has its own Parmesan cheese industry now).

* An alliance between Russia and China was Zbigniew Brzezinski's nightmare. I'm not a fan of the man's policies during the Soviet-Afghan war (he indirectly helped to create Al-Qaeda), but he was clearly an influential strategist and adviser. And he argued, based on Halford Mackinder's geopolitical theories, that Russian-Chinese (and Iranian) integration would make that alliance the world's dominant geopolitical power. The United States' long-standing confrontation with Russia (and Iran) has pushed it away from European integration towards Chinese integration. Over time, that alliance will become a magnet for world trade, and its basket of currencies has the potential to equal (or even supersede) the USD as the world's reserve currency.


This is not to downplay Russia's obvious internal problems, but it seems to me, from reading the commentary of certain economists that I follow, that things aren't as one-sidedly pro-American. And even if it fails to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, Russia may have already dented Washington's "rules-based international order".



Whatever happens in the end, I still believe that Ukrainian neutrality was the best solution for both Russia and the West (and especially for Ukraine, which could have benefited from being the darling of both sides).

[ILoveChinchillas]

In chess, wars of attrition tend to be tactically sound but strategically lacking. You can still win with a weak board presence if you know how to play the game (strategically).

[xerx]

Our confrontation with Russia has tapped into feelings of antagonism, especially by Western traditionalists, towards the existing liberal order. I'm in no way insinuating that these conservatives support the invasion of Ukraine. But if Putin (or someone like him) does succeed in establishing a prosperous parallel civilization (presumably based on "Holy Russia" or aspires to be), then our politics could definitely get more interesting.

[The Reality Denialist]

If the breakup results in babooshkas pulling plows in their Victory gardens, then I'm fairly sure the new states will trade their nuclear weapons for a few John Deere tractors.
.

Someone has said "if babooshkas start to protest then Russia is on its knees". No one in Russia dares to arrest babooshkas.

[xerx]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...CyqYCJtO8pAAAA

[Adam Strange]

A good thread to understand how Russian elites think of their military. The pertinent part is near the end, but the whole thing is well worth reading.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...587895810.html

This is actually what I see them as having in common with many of our own conservative Authoritarians. A basic need to create an underclass in every society so they can look down upon them.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO-LCgtVkAEgRcW.jpg

[Adam Strange]

Russia, after having gotten their asses kicked during their attack on Kiev, are now calling for a cease-fire so they can safely withdraw the equipment they still have and re-use it in the Southeast.

It seems that some of their troops are really anxious to leave.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...ldiers_behind/
Best viewed with the sound enabled.

Personally, I'd not be so inclined to let them go.

[InterPrizeWes]

Someone has said "if babooshkas start to protest then Russia is on its knees". No one in Russia dares to arrest babooshkas.

This bazooka word sounds very frivolous and ludicrous in a fiery and chocolate wish box sonority of whether the chicken or the egg came first.

[xerx]

A good thread to understand how Russian elites think of their military. The pertinent part is near the end, but the whole thing is well worth reading.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...587895810.html

This is actually what I see them as having in common with many of our own conservative Authoritarians. A basic need to create an underclass in every society so they can look down upon them.

That was an interesting read. But WRT. the appeasement of Hltler: I recall reading that historians are divided over whether or not it was the correct strategy.

Proponents of appeasement argue that Britain and France were too weak to meaningfully challenge Germany. They needed time to rearm, which appeasement allowed them to do.

[leckysupport]

I suspect Russians have more casualties than Ukrainians are reporting.

The Russians are struggling to transport supplies, so they may also be struggling to transport the wounded.

[Adam Strange]

Gamma girl: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...ncible_nation/

[Adam Strange]

A remarkable analysis of Putin's Russia, made three weeks ago by a video gamer.

Very high quality. I suspect that the Australian author is an SLI.

[Park]

Yeah Adam, you just keep thinking the Russian military is weak and unprepared and keep jacking off to fake news propaganda... This is like Russiagate all over again, except way more ridiculous.

[Adam Strange]

Yeah Adam, you just keep thinking the Russian military is weak and unprepared and keep jacking off to fake news propaganda... This is like Russiagate all over again, except way more ridiculous.

@Park, what is your take on this war? Or whatever you call it?

[xerx]

I agree with you about the rot that pervades Russian society. I have no problem with any of the Russians I've met here in the States, but it seems like the entire Russian nation needs a reset from its present government. And I just don't see that happening any time soon.

Adam, you may have already seen this, but this thread (https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...22839785861120) by Kamil Galeev is interesting. Here, he talks about how counter-elites have historically challenged the Russian government, and why the Russian state spends considerable effort keeping the army low on the dominance hierarchy, ensuring that no counter-elite emerges from within the army (Stalin pulled a similar trick, BTW, by executing his generals). Putin, himself, emerged from a counter-elite within the intelligence service that overthrew the previous elite.

He argues that the poor / workers / peasants are too weak and destitute to meaningfully revolt against the government, whereas the police force, which is a mid-ranking elite, and higher than the army on the dominance hierarchy, could be a partner for negotiation with the West.


As for me, every part of my soul wants Russia to lose this war, for Putin to lose all credibility, for Putin to be dragged out of office and guillotined, and for someone in Russia to rise up and reform the country. As I understand, there are many competent and moral individuals within the Russian bureaucracy, which does in fact contain some meritocratic institutions. A repeat of Russia's crushing defeat during the Crimean war (in 1856), followed by the recognition of its leaders of the importance of modernization and reform (which included the abolition of serfdom), would be a fantastic outcome.

It's just that, following the messes of Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan, I've become skeptical of the success of regime change or revolution. Things really can always get worse.

[Not A Communist Shill]

[Adam Strange]

What do Authoritarians do when reality closes in?


H!tler ended up in a bunker, berating the German people for not fighting hard enough, still directing armies which were long-destroyed, as the Allies closed in.

The Republican party closed ranks when Trump tried to end the Republic on Jan 6, denying at every turn that anyone on "their" side did anything wrong.

Now, Putin's regime is suffering military setbacks at the hands of a country 1/3 their size. The world is placing sanctions on Russian individuals and Russian businesses, while some European nations are saying they will end their dependence on Russian oil and gas products, which are Russia's main source of income.
Many, many businesses have left Russia, as have many Russians who have the knowledge and the means to do so.


What is the response of the Russian elites?

"We will fuck you all." https://faridaily.substack.com/p/now...-all-whats?s=r


Why are Russian elites behaving like this? Well, their personal welfare is now tied to Putin's.

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/sta...49938320359424

The basic concept is that for certain unstable regimes (or even stable ones with no effective means of resolving internal disputes peacefully, particularly the succession of power) domestic power games are far more important than anything foreign, and that foreigners are only symbols to use in domestic factional fights.

The need to show ideological purity & resolve - "virtue signaling" in modern terms - as a means of achieving power inside the ruling in-group becomes more important than objective reality.

Only the internal power matters as outside reality is merely a symbol to be used in the internal power game.



Well, this works until someone calls you on your bullshit.

[Adam Strange]

Authoritarians are 40% of every population. They tend to stick together, because together, they can build the kind of world that they want you to live in.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1508955848298704901

[The Reality Denialist]

I must say this is a very good parody


... oh wait

Nothing to see here. No war. Just a picnic.

[Adam Strange]

I must say this is a very good parody


... oh wait

Nothing to see here. No war. Just a picnic.

This Russian guy is sweating and he's trying desperately to not say anything that's going to get him shot.

Russian is not primarily the evil empire. It is actually the bullshit empire, full of liars and looters.

I'm not saying that the Russian people are inherently worse than any other people, but the Russians in power are pretty bad. They are showing the world exactly where Authoritarianism leads. If people are smart enough to see it.

I wish I knew which key things steer a country either into relative democracy or relative dictatorship.

Is it historical accidents, different resource distributions, the fertility of the soil, or the timing of the rains? Or could it be just one person who either makes a difference, or does not? I wish I knew.

[leckysupport]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60952125

This is evidence enough for me that the counter offensive is actually happening and is so far largely successful (if the Ukrainians actually did it).

Very impressive.

[Adam Strange]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60952125

This is evidence enough for me that the counter offensive is actually happening and is so far largely successful (if the Ukrainians actually did it).

Very impressive.

Poor babies. Putin can dish it out but starts crying when he has to take it.

Ukraine is just de-nazifying Russia. I hope they take it all the way to Moscow.


A couple months ago, I was talking to an ESE who was a union organizer here in Ann Arbor, (He was blacklisted from most local companies, so he had to start his own publishing company in order to support himself.)
I was telling him that I thought that the world would be a better place if just a few people were removed.
He looked at me as if I was an unethical reprobate and said he agreed with me in principle, but in practice that would be a bad idea, because if we started doing that to them, then they'd start doing that to us.

OK, fair enough.

[Adam Strange]

Guess the sociotypes:

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1509493210002837510

Sol at 0:40, Kali at 0:47, ESI-Se at 1:24, SEI at 1:26, chriscorey at 1:38-1:59.

[Minde]

I hope @Sol is ok... he hasn't been online in almost a month.

[Adam Strange]

I hope @Sol is ok... he hasn't been online in almost a month.

I hope @Sol is OK, too.
I assume he’s too old for the draft.

He might just be pissed at some of the people on this forum for treating him like shit.

Or, his access to global internet might be limited.

IIRC, the last time he was on here, he was taking the Kremlin’s political line and caught some flak for that. He might be pissed, or he might be thinking things over.
No way to know until he comes back.

[rizz]

The West, please, nuke motherfucking Moscow already

[Adam Strange]

The West, please, nuke motherfucking Moscow already

It's certainly tempting, but they could nuke us back.

I certainly would like to see Putin and his enablers gone, but even if that happened, the structure of the Russian oil state would remain and would probably install someone who acted just like these guys in their place.

Does the moon cause the tides, or do the tides cause the moon?

The answer would be to restructure Russian society so it was more equal, and it's leaders, on any level, could not be "dictator for life". Dictators for Life tend to treat their own people, and everyone else, with complete disregard for their welfare.

If they know that they are only going to be the boss for two to four years, and after that, will be ruled by someone whom they just ruled over, then they tend to act nicer. They aren't actually any nicer as human beings, but they ACT nicer.


I've been thinking a lot in the past few weeks about why the West is generally a place which people want to join, and why certain regimes are places where their own people try desperately to leave, and I think this is it. Term limits and accountability of public officials for their actions.

Unfortunately, in the US, personal accountability is something that the ruling class fights desperately against.

[rizz]

It's certainly tempting, but they could nuke us back.

I certainly would like to see Putin and his enablers gone, but even if that happened, the structure of the Russian oil state would remain and would probably install someone who acted just like these guys in their place.

Does the moon cause the tides, or do the tides cause the moon?

The answer would be to restructure Russian society so it was more equal, and it's leaders, on any level, could not be "dictator for life". Dictators for Life tend to treat their own people, and everyone else, with complete disregard for their welfare.

If they know that they are only going to be the boss for two to four years, and after that, will be ruled by someone whom they just ruled over, then they tend to act nicer. They aren't actually any nicer as human beings, but they ACT nicer.


I've been thinking a lot in the past few weeks about why the West is generally a place which people want to join, and why certain regimes are places where their own people try desperately to leave, and I think this is it. Term limits and accountability of public officials for their actions.

Unfortunately, in the US, personal accountability is something that the ruling class fights desperately against.

Too many terms, too much cocaine. That's why we need democracy, lol.

[ILoveChinchillas]

The irony is that nuking tends to cause fewer casualties than ground battles.

[Baqer]

Analysis on what to do with Kaliningrad by a very credible military analyst.

"Since we're living in a times, where dubious historical claims can be used as a casius belli to wage a war - and creation of memeworthy republics seems to be a current conquest meta, the solution is as follows:

Strategical build up of military in Polish Pomerania, issue bullshit citizenships of this specific region.


Poland releases Pomerania as Prussia. Since Prussia has historical claims on Königsberg, war could be declared in a moments notice. Also, since it's a freshly released country, it doesn't have any diplomatic relations with anyone, thus isn't tied to any pact - so it can wage any war it wishes. Everything can be staged as a sudden surge of pro-Prussian support under the bullshit party of modern Teutonic Knights


Blast Preussens Gloria, as surgical strikes paralyze Kaliningrad. Bonus points for a reverse siege of Kaliningrad.


Established Prussia can now cede their Pomeranian territory back to Poland, itself taking place in now Königsberg. Market it as a based Germany, boosting it's credibility on a international arena."

And a great diagram explaining how we can nuke Russia while avoiding Mutually Assured Destruction:

avoid mad.jpg

[Adam Strange]

I think Putin's going to fight to the death. Hopefully, his death. And hopefully, only his death.

[Adam Strange]

If you want a clear world-view, ask an SLI:

[Adam Strange]

Why do so many Russian-speakers support Putin and this war? Still. Even in Ukraine (though their number is declining). And in other former satellites, or even Canada and the US. Why? How? WHY?

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...957420555.html

[Adam Strange]

I was reading an account by a U.S. serviceman who was describing his experiences with both the Russian and Ukrainian armies back in the nineties. He said they were both extremely unprofessional and poorly trained, and their officers seemed to be stealing gas and other items to sell for personal gain.

But about eight years ago, Ukraine had a change of politics and asked the U.S. military for help in training their troops.

The serviceman said that he toured both Russian and Ukrainian military posts just before the recent war, and the Russian military had gotten much worse, while the Ukrainian military had become a modern, professional army.

Evidently, kleptocracy ruins everything.

At some point, sooner rather than later, most of the Russian military is going to be completely ineffective. Their demographics are making recruitment impossible, and thievery is incapacitating their hardware. Russia will cease to be a Great Power (if that hasn’t already happened), and will revert to a country consisting of Moscow, where the elites live, and the rest of the country, where roads are packed dirt and flush toilets are a novelty.

My question is whether or not Russia as a whole can be brought up to reasonably modern standards of living?

And could that be done without taking the oil and gas out of the ground?

[Adam Strange]

Russia has lost around a billion dollars of military equipment in 45 days of fighting.

Unfortunately, that’s about the amount of money that they get from Europe for their natural gas in one day.

Fortunately, while an embargo won’t bankrupt Russia, it will make it impossible for Russia’s military to replace their advanced hardware, since there are no chip fabs in Russia.

The other thing an embargo of Russian oil and gas might do is to start weaning the world off fossil fuels, which we absolutely need to do.

[Adam Strange]

I think that the general whom Putin put in charge of the Russian campaign is an LSE.

We’ll have to see if he fights from an historical, unintuitive playbook. (That means blindly throwing men into the meat grinder and reducing cities to rubble, in case you didn’t know Russian history.)

[xerx]

The other thing an embargo of Russian oil and gas might do is to start weaning the world off fossil fuels, which we absolutely need to do.

As much as I agree, the unfortunate thing is that Russia is the world's #1 commodities exporter. It exports virtually every commodity, including the metals that will be needed to build solar panels, including the uranium needed to power nuclear plants.

The sanctioning of Russian trade isn't conducive to the transition away from Russian trade.