The Ukraine Question

[xerx]

For anyone interested in cybersecurity, the coming days, years, or possibly decades could keep you busy.

If you're interested in analyzing international electronic warfare, I suggest building a honeynet (and learning some network security in the process, although it won't be trivial if you don't have a high level of computer proficiency). A honeynet masquerades as a legitimate but weakly-secured server to would-be attackers. Once it's infected, you can examine what the hacker is doing.

I set one up a year ago. And within literally thirty minutes, my honeynet was infected with a virus whose origin was a Chinese IP address. It was a real piece of work: executing multiple copies of itself at once, self-replicating in case of deletion, and using the names of other installed programs to appear inconspicuous. It set up a DDoS botnet that targeted some government-owned websites. My country was having a diplomatic spat with China at the time because it had arrested an important Chinese businesswoman.

Or, your honeynet could become Dropbox for some pedophilia ring. So be careful!

EDIT: And do take the appropriate legal precautions.

EDIT #2: In my case, I used a firewall that blocked it from executing its DDoS attack.

[Rusal]

​VOLODYMYR YERMOLENKO's take. Many Latin American center-left parties show signs of the same configuration, but lack the imperialistic bite and power to progress further.

Call it “Sado-Putinism”

When you think about Ukraine and Russia, try to think beyond geopolitics. Think about psychology. About attitudes towards pleasure and suffering.

Ukraine's and Russia's key national narratives of history were developed in the 19th century. This century also gave them their cultural pantheons: writers, painters, composers, and historians.
But there is one more thing about the 19th century: it was obsessed with the idea of suffering. Many great writers of this century, from Balzac to Shevchenko to Dostoievsky, focused on asking a key question: "how to suffer rightly." How can suffering lead to a better life?

This mode of thinking remained into the early 20th century, but was profoundly distorted in its authoritarian / totalitarian decades.

Nazis said they needed to kill all the Jews. Bolsheviks said they needed to exterminate the bourgeoisie and peasants as a class. Despite the stark ideological differences between Nazism and Stalinism, they both shared a logic of collective sacrifice of others.

After World War II, the liberal world tried to think differently. It put much more emphasis on happiness, rather than on suffering. "Righteous" suffering ceded its place to happiness and pleasure as key values. Modernization became a hedonistic concept. Consumerism promised pleasure for all.

Here is the key difference: the post-war Soviet Union didn't go on this path. It continued to think that progress meant suffering for a better life. It continued to describe modernization not in hedonistic but in ascetic terms. Or sadistic ones.

Seeking pleasure was heretical to Soviet doctrine. All pleasure was to be found in the future. Or in the mirror of this future: socialist-realist art.
The post-war world showed that Soviets failed in their understanding of history. Soviet Union collapsed precisely because it failed to be hedonistic. Soviets failed to see that communist manifesto ceded its place to a consumerist manifesto.

But when pleasure is ostracized, it mutates into perverted forms.

"He beats me, therefore he loves me," is a strange Russian proverb which encapsulates this rule. When mutual pleasure (love) is impossible, the only proof of connection is a vertical relation of the dominant and dominated. A political sado-masochism.

This might explain why Russian post-Soviet elites are unable to see the world in terms of partnerships, i.e. horizontal connections. Why they are unable to perceive Ukraine as a sovereign state with which they can have horizontal relations.

For Russians, Ukraine can only exist as a subjugated entity, under somebody's ownership: either Russian or American. Even Europe can only exist in this form, by the way.
Kremlin thinks of smaller states as someone's property. It identifies power with property: vlast, power, is something giving you a right to vladet', own.

This can explain why the key message of Russian propaganda about Ukraine is the message of "external governance." By this, they mean that if Ukraine is not ruled by Russians, it must be ruled by someone else. The idea that Ukraine could be a democracy and thus ruled by its own people, politicians, businessmen, oligarchs or whoever else inside Ukraine, is unthinkable for the Kremlin. Russians don't perceive the world as a multitude of sovereign states making their own decisions.

Similarly, relations with America can only be those of confrontation: "eat or be eaten." America won the Cold War, but Russia needs to win the next one, they say. Some pro-Kremlin analysts are talking about the societies which Russia has defeated (the Swedes in the 18th century, the French in the 19th century, the Germans in the 20th century) as now "vegetarian." And they mean this with full contempt.
But what these Russians call "vegetarian," only means that these societies have become less willing to harm others. They have learned (and are still learning) to live in a horizontal world. In a world where power and coercion is not the only solution. Where cooperation, dialogue and mutual help are believed to be much better forms of interaction.

Ignoring the benefits of cooperation and seeing the world exclusively as a battle between big geopolitical animals (I once called it "zoopolitics") is a Russian psychological problem. Or perhaps a psycho-political problem. It's not only about Putin: surveys find that only 3-4% of Russian citizens think that Moscow bears any responsibility for the current escalation around Ukraine. This means that Putinism in Russia is not an exception; it is a rule.

Unable to enjoy, this ideology proclaims the suffering of others as the only attainable joy. What Russians mean when they use the word nagnut'.

You can call it political sadism. Or "sado-Putinism". This is a political ideology which seeks its highest pleasure in making others suffer.

But it is all rooted in the incapacity to enjoy horizontal relations between humans. In the obsession with describing the world only in the power relations, in the relations between the dominated and the dominants.

The key question is: will Russians change? Will they one day accept that the logic of horizontal and mutually beneficial relations is better? Or, on the contrary, will they export their zoopolitical logic to the rest of the world?

If the latter is true, the danger is global.

[Poptart]

An update on peace negotiations: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ts-2022-03-13/

Russian and Ukrainian officials are scheduled to meet this week. Both sides signaling optimistic expectations:

Mykhailo Podolyak (Ukrainian negotiator/ advisor to Zelensky): "We will not concede in principle on any positions. Russia now understands this. Russia is already beginning to talk constructively” and "I think that we will achieve some results literally in a matter of days”

Leonid Slutsky (Russian delegate): "According to my personal expectations, this progress may grow in the coming days into a joint position of both delegations, into documents for signing”

Hopefully this is a step in the right direction.

[Park]

@Poptart 80% of what you see in mainstream media (including the statements made by politicians) is theatre. A show for the ignorant masses. Taking it at face value will give you little to no information about what's going on.

If you want to learn something substantive and begin to understand what's actually going on, watch Vlad Vexler's videos on the topic on youtube. The video RealLifeLore made was also good, mostly objective, factual and politically unbiased. The Grayzone also had on some credible guests discussing the conflict recently.

[Poptart]

If you want to learn something substantive and begin to understand what's actually going on, watch Vlad Vexler's videos on the topic on youtube. The video RealLifeLore made was also good, mostly objective, factual and politically unbiased. The Grayzone also had on some credible guests discussing the conflict recently.

@Park Where do you think Vlad Vexler gets his news? He’s not a reporter. He’s a guy on youtube who gives his opinion on the news.

80% of what you see in mainstream media (including the statements made by politicians) is theatre. A show for the ignorant masses. Taking it at face value will give you little to no information about what's going on.

I like how you think I don’t know this LOL.

I’m saying this right now—I will tell the next person who writes a condescending comment like this to me to FUCK OFF.

[Park]

@Park Where do you think Vlad Vexler gets his news?

You're missing the point, which is that he has already obtained more than the current news, i.e. sufficient knowledge of history, regional politics, philosophy and psychology, to know how to interpret and filter the news.

He’s not a reporter.

He's not, Max Blumenthal and Aaron Maté (from The Grayzone) are. And they are much better at their jobs than the reporters you're quoting.

I like how you think I don’t know this LOL.

I just thought it was possible you didn't know it, based on the things you have posted in this thread.

I’m saying this right now—I will tell the next person who writes a condescending comment like this to me to FUCK OFF.

Okay. Just keep citing delegation members and expressing hope based on meaningless rhetorical fluff, and I won't say anything.

[Poptart]

You're missing the point, which is that he has already obtained more than the current news, i.e. sufficient knowledge of history, regional politics, philosophy and psychology, to know how to interpret and filter the news.



He's not, Max Blumenthal and Aaron Maté (from The Grayzone) are. And they are much better at their jobs than the reporters you're quoting.



I just thought it was possible you didn't know it, based on the things you have posted in this thread.



Okay. Just keep citing delegation members and expressing hope based on meaningless rhetorical fluff, and I won't say anything.

This is a discussion about Ukraine and Russia. The point of my comment wasn’t to persuade anyone of an impending peace treaty.

I gave an update on the negotiations because I noticed that no one else had brought them up yet.

“Hopefully this is a step in the right direction” is hardly a vote of confidence in what they’re saying.

You can share you thoughts about the negotiations without lecturing me about the mainstream media and implying that I don’t understand what’s going on.

[xerx]

How I'm I just finding out about this...

[xerx]

This is truly heartwarming.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b2035274.html

Squatters break into Russian oligarch’s mansion ‘to house Ukrainian refugees’

The group said they had ‘liberated’ the central London property belonging to Oleg Deripaska, who was sanctioned by the Government last week.

[Park]

@Poptart Fair enough. And just for the record, I wasn't trying to lecture you or be condescending to you or any specific individual here. I was just stating what I see and trying to be helpful.

Propaganda machines are doing their thing while an overwhelming majority of westerners are losing their minds and acting in colossally stupid ways, which irritates the crap out of me. Even my LinkedIn feed is full of apolitical ignoramuses posting flags and pretty looking graphics asking for a "no-fly zone" and hating on Russians, making stupid Russophobic statements, praising Lezensky (i.e. his acting, without understanding how cornered he is from all sides) and wanting to ban everything Russian under the sun. As if Russian civilians are to blame for the war, or as if they are not already negatively affected by this shit, and will continue to be even more in the upcoming months. All the while there are 4 other illegal wars with active aggression going on elsewhere in the world.


Untitled-design_edited.jpg

(image source: https://www.mintpressnews.com/ukrain...-study/279847/)

[mu4]

You're missing the point, which is that he has already obtained more than the current news, i.e. sufficient knowledge of history, regional politics, philosophy and psychology, to know how to interpret and filter the news.



He's not, Max Blumenthal and Aaron Maté (from The Grayzone) are. And they are much better at their jobs than the reporters you're quoting.



I just thought it was possible you didn't know it, based on the things you have posted in this thread.



Okay. Just keep citing delegation members and expressing hope based on meaningless rhetorical fluff, and I won't say anything.

If you are interested in Max Blumenthal, this popped up at my youtube recommendations.

Not that I agree with Max. I think Max is also engaged in a polemic that furthers a distorted agenda, as do all media sources.

Ultimately media is just a vehicle for whatever political organization backs it or is it's own political organization.

[Poptart]

@Poptart Fair enough. And just for the record, I wasn't trying to lecture you or be condescending to you or any specific individual here. I was just stating what I see and trying to be helpful.

Propaganda machines are doing their thing while an overwhelming majority of westerners are losing their minds and acting in colossally stupid ways, which irritates the crap out of me. Even my LinkedIn feed is full of apolitical ignoramuses posting flags and pretty looking graphics asking for a "no-fly zone" and hating on Russians, making stupid Russophobic statements, praising Lezensky (i.e. his acting, without understanding how cornered he is from all sides) and wanting to ban everything Russian under the sun. As if Russian civilians are to blame for the war, or as if they are not already negatively affected by this shit, and will continue to be even more in the upcoming months. All the while there are 4 other illegal wars with active aggression going on elsewhere in the world.

Thanks @Park. I appreciate you saying that. I probably took your original comment a little too personally and reacted negatively as a result.

[mu4]

@Poptart Fair enough. And just for the record, I wasn't trying to lecture you or be condescending to you or any specific individual here. I was just stating what I see and trying to be helpful.

Propaganda machines are doing their thing while an overwhelming majority of westerners are losing their minds and acting in colossally stupid ways, which irritates the crap out of me. Even my LinkedIn feed is full of apolitical ignoramuses posting flags and pretty looking graphics asking for a "no-fly zone" and hating on Russians, making stupid Russophobic statements, praising Lezensky (i.e. his acting, without understanding how cornered he is from all sides) and wanting to ban everything Russian under the sun. As if Russian civilians are to blame for the war, or as if they are not already negatively affected by this shit, and will continue to be even more in the upcoming months. All the while there are 4 other illegal wars with active aggression going on elsewhere in the world.


Untitled-design_edited.jpg

(image source: https://www.mintpressnews.com/ukrain...-study/279847/)

My question is what's the point?

The thing with Russia/China/US + west, is that actually have a coherent solution that their people can accept. Empire is a coherent solution.

Russians ambition is meeting a stumbling block in Ukraine, but there are still going to be plenty of people that accept its coherence, the only problem is losing not the solution itself.

[aixelsyd]

https://www.oism.org/nwss/

I was talking with my brother and dad while working on fixing a property about the war.
My bro sent me this book for those interested in nuclear war survival.

[Poptart]

https://www.oism.org/nwss/

I was talking with my brother and dad while working on fixing a property about the war.
My bro sent me this book for those interested in nuclear war survival.

I remember my 4th grade teacher saying that lead is the best shield against nuclear radiation…lol

[xerx]

hoax but lmao.

[Poptart]

[Poptart]

Financial Times is reporting that Russia and Ukraine have drawn up a neutrality plan:

Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

The proposed deal, which Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed in full for the first time on Monday, would involve Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK and Turkey, the people said.

The nature of western guarantees for Ukrainian security — and their acceptability to Moscow — could yet prove to be a big obstacle to any deal, as could the status of Ukrainian territories seized by Russia and its proxies in 2014. A 1994 agreement underpinning Ukrainian security failed to prevent Russian aggression against its neighbour.

Although Moscow and Kyiv both said on Wednesday that they had made progress on the terms of a deal, Ukrainian officials remain sceptical Russian President Vladimir Putin is fully committed to peace and worry that Moscow could be buying time to regroup its forces and resume its offensive.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told the Financial Times that any deal would involve “the troops of the Russian Federation in any case leaving the territory of Ukraine” captured since the invasion began on February 24 — namely southern regions along the Azov and Black Seas, as well as territory to the east and north of Kyiv.

Ukraine would maintain its armed forces but would be obliged to stay outside military alliances such as Nato and refrain from hosting foreign military bases on its territory.

Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that neutrality for Ukraine based on the status of Austria or Sweden was a possibility.

“This option is really being discussed now, and is one that can be considered neutral,” said Peskov.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said that “absolutely specific wordings” were “close to being agreed” in the negotiations.

The Guardian spoke with Janez Janša (one of the EU PMs who met with Zelensky in Kyiv yesterday) about the deal:

Slovenia’s prime minister, Janez Janša, who visited Zelenskiy in the Ukrainian capital on Tuesday evening, told the Guardian that a “draft framework” was being worked on, with Ukraine’s president willing to change the country’s constitution to drop hopes of Nato membership.

Janša, who had travelled by train to Kyiv with the prime ministers of Poland and the Czech Republic, said he feared Russia was merely seeking to “put the focus on a side theatre, and pictures from the negotiations, not the pictures from the killing grounds”. “An old trick”, he said.

But he outlined what he believed was the Ukrainian leader’s approach to the ongoing peace negotiations following their talks and said it offered some hope for lasting peace if a Russian ceasefire could be won as a first step.

“Zelenskiy is speaking about making some concessions”, he said. “There is an article in the constitution of Ukraine where Ukrainians are seeking Nato and European membership.

“If you are listening to President Zelenskiy, he is prepared to abandon seeking the Nato membership, if there is EU membership guaranteed – not only promised but guaranteed – and if there are some security guarantees on the table.”

It’s worth noting that despite these peace talks, Russia has continued to launch airstrikes against Ukrainian cities, today destroying a theater in Mariupol where hundreds of civilians were sheltering.

[Poptart]

Meanwhile in a televised speech today, Putin goes on a bizarre rant against pro-western Russians (“scum”):

"Of course they (the West) will try to bet on the so-called fifth column, on traitors - on those who earn their money here, but live over there. Live, not in the geographical sense, but in the sense of their thoughts, their slavish thinking.

Any people, and especially the Russian people, will always be able to distinguish the true patriots from the scum and the traitors, and just to spit them out like a midge that accidentally flew into their mouths.

I am convinced that this natural and necessary self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to meet any challenge."

[Adam Strange]

Meanwhile in a televised speech today, Putin goes on a bizarre rant against pro-western Russians (“scum”):

"Of course they (the West) will try to bet on the so-called fifth column, on traitors - on those who earn their money here, but live over there. Live, not in the geographical sense, but in the sense of their thoughts, their slavish thinking.

Any people, and especially the Russian people, will always be able to distinguish the true patriots from the scum and the traitors, and just to spit them out like a midge that accidentally flew into their mouths.

I am convinced that this natural and necessary self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to meet any challenge."

Sounds like Putin is getting ready to purge some of his Russians who were not sufficiently loyal to whatever crusade he wants now.

Russia has done incalculable damage to Ukraine, both in terms of civilian deaths and property damage. If I were a Ukrainian negotiator, my terms would be reparations and the removal of all Russian officials presently in office in Russia, to be tried in Ukrainian courts.

The latter would not be for the purpose of exacting revenge, since most of these officials were "just following orders, Mein Herr". Rather, it would be to remove people who are entirely corruptible and replace them with truly elected officials. It might not turn Russia into a modern Germany, but it might move them a bit away from North Korea.

[Adam Strange]

Some Russians walked into a Ukrainian bar......

[xerx]

Sounds like Putin is getting ready to purge some of his Russians who were not sufficiently loyal to whatever crusade he wants now.

Russia has done incalculable damage to Ukraine, both in terms of civilian deaths and property damage. If I were a Ukrainian negotiator, my terms would be reparations and the removal of all Russian officials presently in office in Russia, to be tried in Ukrainian courts.

The latter would not be for the purpose of exacting revenge, since most of these officials were "just following orders, Mein Herr". Rather, it would be to remove people who are entirely corruptible and replace them with truly elected officials. It might not turn Russia into a modern Germany, but it might move them a bit away from North Korea.

Adam, I know that this won't be a popular take, but I'm not convinced that "de-Putinizing" Russia would make a huge difference to Ukraine's long-term survival. Don't get me wrong, it would be the morally correct, morally satisfying thing to do — that man and his mother should be at The International Criminal Court.

But it's not necessarily the case that Putin will be replaced by some enlightened liberal leadership. And even if he were, that same leadership, being Russian first and liberal second, may still consider Ukrainian independence to be a historical anomaly, all the while Ukraine's westward drift will continue to be seen as a threat by new generations of Russian elites. If anything, a "better" and less kleptocratic leadership may have made Russia more likely to absorb or conquer Ukraine, whereas the Putin regime's evident incompetence (which has made Russia such a basket case in both war and economics) was what saved it.

There are entire schools of historical thought dedicated to the idea that world war was inevitable due to Germany's geopolitical situation; that it wasn't just a matter of individual jingoistic leaders; and that replacing the Kaiser or Hjtler wouldn't have changed the perceived threat from Russia, Germany's (and Japan's) need for colonies and resources, or Germany's (and Japan's) desire to be regarded as equals to the other great powers. You may object to these reasons (reasons that are similar to Putin's) as immoral or find them to be irrational, but it isn't exactly easy to change the minds of ambitious people who control vast armies.

I'm not basing any of this on my own geopolitical analysis, by the way, because I'm not an expert. I haven't actually written down many original thoughts throughout this thread, only those of policy makers like Henry Kissinger (who mentioned that over-focusing on Putin, while ignoring the aforementioned structural reasons for Russian antagonism, was an alibi for a lack of strategy) or those of Brzezinski (who wrote that an embattled Russia would turn to China, not suddenly realize the errors of its ways).

To be honest, I don't even know if these policy makers were correct. But I do believe that what they say is still worth considering. Keeping a cooler head isn't always the worst strategy.

[Adam Strange]

Adam, I know that this won't be a popular take, but I'm not convinced that "de-Putinizing" Russia would make a huge difference to Ukraine's long-term survival. Don't get me wrong, it would be the morally correct, morally satisfying thing to do — that man and his mother should be at The International Criminal Court.

But it's not necessarily the case that Putin will be replaced by some enlightened liberal leadership. And even if he were, that same leadership, being Russian first and liberal second, may still consider Ukrainian independence to be a historical anomaly, whereas Ukraine's westward drift will continue to be seen as a threat by new generations of Russian elites. If anything, a "better" and less kleptocratic leadership may have made Russia more likely to absorb or conquer Ukraine, and that the Putin regime's evident incompetence (which has made Russia such a basket case in both war and economics) was what saved it.

There are entire schools of historical thought dedicated to the idea that world war was inevitable due to Germany's geopolitical situation; that it wasn't just a matter of jingoistic German leadership; and that replacing the Kaiser or Hjtler wouldn't have changed the military threat from Russia, Germany's (and Japan's) need for colonies and resources, or Germany's (and Japan's) desire to be regarded as equals to the other great powers. You may object to these reasons (reasons that are eerily similar to Putin's) as immoral or find them to be irrational, but it isn't exactly easy to change the minds of ambitious people with vast armies.

I'm not basing any of this on my own geopolitical analysis, by the way, because I'm an an expert. I haven't actually written down many original thoughts throughout this thread, only those of policy makers like Henry Kissinger (who mentioned that over-focusing on Putin, while ignoring the aforementioned structural reasons for Russian antagonism, was an alibi for a lack of strategy) or those of Brzezinski (who wrote that an embattled Russia would turn to China, not suddenly realize the errors of its ways).

To be honest, I don't even know if these policy makers were correct. But I do believe that what they say is still worth considering. Keeping a cooler head isn't always the worst strategy.

@xerx, I didn't say that replacing Putin would change anything. I don't think it will, because Russia is a mafia state, and when one mafia head is removed, another takes his place. The problem is that the structure is corrupt.

I said it would be good to instead remove all of the officials who are in office now, similar to what was done to some small extent in Germany after WWII.

The German people didn't magically change from a nation of 100% Nazis to 100% Liberal Democrats. Instead, that minority of the population which was Nazi was discouraged from taking part in public discourse, and the minority of the German population which were Liberal Democrats were encouraged to form a new society.

The West also gave the Germans enough financial help (while maintaining garrisons in the country) for them to rebuild their industry into a modern state, and therefore make their society more equal. A more equal society is a more democratic one.

Of course, removing all of the officials would mean being able to exert an influence in the country that only an unconditional surrender would produce, and that is not likely to happen for a while. Ukraine could move things in that direction, though.

Yes, while I think that states have the right to self-determination, Russia is like an arsonist with a tanker truck full of gasoline in his back yard, and four houses have gone up in flames in the past few years, while the arsonist threatens the neighbors when they start talking about starting a fire department.

What to do, what to do?

[Adam Strange]

One of the things that Ukrainians are reporting is that captured Russian soldiers have no idea why they are fighting, but they have been told that they will be shot for desertion if they try to return to Russia. So for the Russian soldiers, their choices are to kill Ukrainians or be killed by their own military.

This may or may not be true, but if they were given a third choice, one in which, say, if they desert to the Ukrainians they will be resettled in some other country far from Russia, then you might see Putin's army of forced conscripts melt away.

[Adam Strange]

Russian flag coming down from the Council of Europe

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com..._russian_flag/

[Adam Strange]

What happens when everyone in the government steals from the projects they're supposed to be running, because the guy at the top is stealing the most:

[xerx]

@xerx, I didn't say that replacing Putin would change anything. I don't think it will, because Russia is a mafia state, and when one mafia head is removed, another takes his place. The problem is that the structure is corrupt.

I said it would be good to instead remove all of the officials who are in office now, similar to what was done to some small extent in Germany after WWII.

The German people didn't magically change from a nation of 100% Nazis to 100% Liberal Democrats. Instead, that minority of the population which was Nazi was discouraged from taking part in public discourse, and the minority of the German population which were Liberal Democrats were encouraged to form a new society.

The West also gave the Germans enough financial help (while maintaining garrisons in the country) for them to rebuild their industry into a modern state, and therefore make their society more equal. A more equal society is a more democratic one.

Of course, removing all of the officials would mean being able to exert an influence in the country that only an unconditional surrender would produce, and that is not likely to happen for a while. Ukraine could move things in that direction, though.

Yes, while I think that states have the right to self-determination, Russia is like an arsonist with a tanker truck full of gasoline in his back yard, and four houses have gone up in flames in the past few years, while the arsonist threatens the neighbors when they start talking about starting a fire department.

What to do, what to do?

I also wish that we could do this (turn Russia into a clone of Germany that values pacifism, individual rights, minority rights, women's rights, etc.). But, yeah, we can't do this militarily, you're quite right about that. And that's what this is all about: Russia is too weak to conquer eastern Europe but too strong to be easily defeated (and even its defeat isn't necessarily a good outcome — it could possibly help China, for one thing).

Honestly, I'm skeptical that we could have ever defended Ukraine, even if it was part of NATO, even if Article 5 was triggered (maybe we'd garrison the uncontested parts of the country alongside key cities, I don't know, I'm not a planner). But in case of full-on NATO reprisal after, say, a Russian incursion into Donbass and Odessa, the Russians would know how to retaliate.

Russia has a trump card up its sleeve, and it isn't nuclear weapons: the Russian navy has the ability to torpedo our undersea internet cables, dealing a heavy blow to the globalized economy. They can hurt us badly via pinpricks that don't easily justify nuclear retaliation, just as Iran can mine the Strait of Hormuz and shut down oil tanker traffic, all without nuclear war or the threat of mutually assured destruction.

Russia can also interfere with our electoral politics (and probably has); their merceneries can sabotage Western political and economic projects in the developing world (although some of these are very likely semi-colonial in nature, and their destruction may not be totally unwholesome depending on your political views).

I'd even speculate that these economic reasons, less so the threat of nuclear escalation (a widely-used, but an uncalibrated and under-examined premise), are what has primarily made the West's retaliation in Ukraine less pronounced, which may have otherwise included the levying of even heavier sanctions.

The strategists I've quoted earlier believed that integrating Russia into Europe, both economically and diplomatically, was our best leverage against them, and that may have meant compromising on Ukraine's diplomatic sovereignty. They could be wrong, I could be wrong, but that's what I'll be voting for in my country's next elections, when I'll have the obligation to have an opinion on foreign policy.

[Not A Communist Shill]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law

[Minde]

I wonder how many Russians will actually see this. And what they would think after watching it.

[Minde]

Ugh, @Subteigh how do I embed like you have been doing?

[Poptart]

Ugh, @Subteigh how do I embed like you have been doing?

I was wondering the same thing

[Minde]

I was wondering the same thing

It's magic. And I want it.

[Ryan]

quote his post and you will see the underlying structure

https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

it looks like [tweet]the number behind status[/tweet << then close this bracket, I didn't do it because the text won't be visible otherwise

[Djinn]

My thoughts on this thread:

tl;dr

[Minde]

it looks like [tweet]the number behind status[/tweet << then close this bracket, I didn't do it because the text won't be visible otherwise

Thank you!

[aixelsyd]

Russians are being detained in droves for no reason such as for holding up blank sheets of paper. I feel bad for them.


for example:

[Adam Strange]

Russia is now fairly isolated in the world due to it's invasion of Ukraine, and many people were waiting to see which side China would weigh in on.

Apparently, a Russian diplomat's visit to China was recently cancelled, because the plane got halfway to China and then turned around and returned to Russia. And now, Chinese media has, for the first time, broadcast scenes of the Russian army killing civilians in breadlines in Ukraine.

President Biden and Xi Jinping are due to meet March 18 to discuss Ukraine.

One of the things they might talk about is the fact that Ukraine normally exports wheat to the world, but because the Ukrainian farmers are busy collecting Russian SAM systems for scrap iron, they aren't out there harvesting crops. Also, due to heavy flooding, China just reported its worst winter wheat crop harvest in its history, and the US has a lot of wheat which just might, under certain circumstances, be available below the world market price.

I've said before that China is extremely vulnerable to global climate change, because it doesn't have a lot of surplus food and its food-growing region is relatively small, being basically located in a low area near the rising sea.

[End]

Russia is now fairly isolated in the world due to it's invasion of Ukraine, and many people were waiting to see which side China would weigh in on.

Apparently, a Russian diplomat's visit to China was recently cancelled, because the plane got halfway to China and then turned around and returned to Russia. And now, Chinese media has, for the first time, broadcast scenes of the Russian army killing civilians in breadlines in Ukraine.

President Biden and Xi Jinping are due to meet March 18 to discuss Ukraine.

One of the things they might talk about is the fact that Ukraine normally exports wheat to the world, but because the Ukrainian farmers are busy collecting Russian SAM systems for scrap iron, they aren't out there harvesting crops. Also, due to heavy flooding, China just reported its worst winter wheat crop harvest in its history, and the US has a lot of wheat which just might, under certain circumstances, be available below the world market price.

I've said before that China is extremely vulnerable to global climate change, because it doesn't have a lot of surplus food and its food-growing region is relatively small, being basically located in a low area near the rising sea.

Looks like Xi is keeping his options open. Good for him in a sense. Too bad he can't really do much about the general character of his people "The Han" without embracing Christianity. A thing they will, by the way, do at about the time the U.S ceases to be a single contiguous political entity. That is, by 2040.

Now for the relevant part of this thread. Boy oh boy are the elites projecting so hard it hurts. I issue a prophecy. There will be some kind of NBC weapon used within the next two weeks on a target so obviously engineered to garner Delta and Alpha sympathies here in the "west" it'll hurt. It'll be blamed on Russia because they're "losing" despite having full air superiority in a region that's mostly devoid of forests, cave networks, or whatever else handily makes the vaunted "air superiority" mean jack shit.

In Ukraine, air superiority (in the modern sense) basically decides the outcome of the war. The cheap drones the Ukranians have been using to great effect are only working because military logic is flawed on that level. Hey, we got all these modern AA defenses ready to go! Let's wipe the floor with em'!

Lawnchair Kremlin General: "Yeah, but we got this soviet era AA system that can be deployed for rubles on the proverbial dollar. Let's use that instead!"
Conscript Grunt: "What! That thing'll make us look like a joke! Even cheap Turkish Predator drone knockoffs can make a mockery of that! I'm gonna die horribly defending that piece of shit!"
LKG: "Eh, what's that? I'm a bit too drunk to care. More Vodka!"
CG: "Yeah fuck this I'm out."

To sum it up: Russia is actually winning this war and winning it rather hard in the concrete sense despite losing it rather hard on the propaganda front. As one can cannot deny the consequences of denying reality for too long before it catches up with you I expect the otherwise intelligent Ruskies to get "dumb" and use a WMD for no good reason according to the Western media. They (i.e. the Western Media) are already projecting so it's going to happen soon. Don't buy it unless, as I've said earlier this thread, you got truly iron clad evidence.

Ruskies could try the same trick themselves to put this into perspective. They've basically tried and failed to do what we Americans have done time and time again for the past two decades. They tried and failed to follow our own combat doctrines. They were quite effective, but that was because our armed forces aren't conscripts and officers aren't on their way out of deadly combat assignments...

[Adam Strange]

Near the bottom of this thread (https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...03672019513345) is a pretty good explanation of why even the ethnic Russians in Ukraine fought back against the Russian invasion.

The culture that Russia brings with it is toxic to normal people.

[silke]

Russian tank very deliberately targets and flattens civilian car (yes, with someone inside).

https://mobile.twitter.com/golub/sta...11332571107332

That video is a fake, as has been disproven long time ago. Ukrainians have been filming and spreading a ton of fakes, since this is earning them millions of European and US monetary aid and free military assets.

Many Ukrainians are cursing Zelensky now, since he has evacuated his family to Germany full knowing the a conflict was incoming. Yet, he has subjected the lives and families of other Ukranians to danger, and then used them for his own PR. Ukrainian people, men women children, were sacrificed for his own political status and financial gain, while his own family was huddled into safety. I hardly see any kind of political return for him. While economically he hasn't done anything for his country - outside of begging, cheating, and stealing.