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Thread: The Ukraine Question

  1. #481
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    I believe that political leanings have a genetic basis.
    I think this a normal human quality.


    BUT...

    As the reasoning goes: sometimes variety is an evolutionary strength.
    I'm going to put my hope in an inside assassination job [the broadest sense of the word]/"treason". It is a foolish lottery but if you have infinite amount of time and infinite amount of lotteries you will win infinite amount of times.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alive View Post
    north korea = beta, south korea = gamma

    When I first started traveling around the world on business, I had this prejudice that the world was divided between free countries and communist countries, and of course, the free countries were all good and the communist countries were all bad.

    This prejudice lasted about six months, and did not survive my encounters with Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and China.

    What I now believe is that the world is divided between those countries where the Law is above Men, and those countries where Men are above the Law.

    Surprisingly enough, South Africa is a lawful country, and Argentina and China are Mafia countries. Other Mafia countries are North Korea, Russia, Lebanon, Syria, and parts of New Jersey.

    I read somewhere (Gulenko, probably) that the procession of the Socion moves from Beta to Gamma by the method of Gammas entangling Betas into legal contracts. If so, then that implies that:

    Gamma = Rule of Law.
    Beta = Rule of Claw.

  3. #483
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanguine Miasma View Post
    I think this a normal human quality.


    BUT...

    As the reasoning goes: sometimes variety is an evolutionary strength.
    I'm going to put my hope in an inside assassination job [the broadest sense of the word]/"treason". It is a foolish lottery but if you have infinite amount of time and infinite amount of lotteries you will win infinite amount of times.
    This sounds like a cosmic theory of infinite universes. But a far spaced out infinity is not as big as a whole 100% infinity.

    Birthing the mainframe of matrix headquarters central control could reveal other enigmas, like is it better odds to go for many small chances, or a few big ones?
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    I have no idea what is going on tbh. Behind the scenes god only knows what’s really really going on. The news is so pro propaganda-ish and we are all a bunch of peasants here, mostly, I’m assuming. I seriously feel brainwashed. I took a political survey yesterday that was so biased it was ridiculous. And at the end they asked my thoughts, and I told them they had some really great brainwashing material right there. Maybe I should shut up. Ill prob end up getting shot, but sometimes I have a really hard time curbing my sarcastic assholism. I think it might even be worth death for the pleasure I get from it.
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    Taken from reddit: (found the original article too, but it's in French)

    Élysée Palace released an image of Macron after calling Putin over Ukraine war today.

    I found it interesting in light of their supposed duality (LSI & EIE) according to Gulenko. Apparently the only western leader still trying to talk some sense into Putin.


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    I personally think putin is LSI and macron IEI, so it"s an activity relationship, which makes quite a lot of sense when you read about it.
    my ideas about socionics:

    https://soziotypen.de/thoughts-on-socionics/

    the section will be updated ever other month or so.

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    https://www.the16types.info/vbulleti...-(IEI-edition)

    and this is a thread with EIE examples

    https://www.the16types.info/vbulleti...s-EIE-examples

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan View Post
    Taken from reddit: (found the original article too, but it's in French)

    Élysée Palace released an image of Macron after calling Putin over Ukraine war today.

    I found it interesting in light of their supposed duality (LSI & EIE) according to DarkAngelFireWolf69. Apparently the only western leader still trying to talk some sense into Putin.


    "noooooo plsss dadddy nooooo come on this isn't a good ideas just stop pleaseee yo ucan come hereee if yo uwant pleasessseeee just stop i can't handle this rn i thought we had smth you cn't just invade a sovereign nation like that nooooooooooo"

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    Quote Originally Posted by asterr View Post
    I have no idea what is going on tbh. Behind the scenes god only knows what’s really really going on. The news is so pro propaganda-ish and we are all a bunch of peasants here, mostly, I’m assuming. I seriously feel brainwashed. I took a political survey yesterday that was so biased it was ridiculous. And at the end they asked my thoughts, and I told them they had some really great brainwashing material right there. Maybe I should shut up. Ill prob end up getting shot, but sometimes I have a really hard time curbing my sarcastic assholism. I think it might even be worth death for the pleasure I get from it.
    The only acceptable brainwashing is Ukrainian propaganda.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Baqer View Post
    The only acceptable brainwashing is Ukrainian propaganda.
    That’s no shit lol

    For now…
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    Ukraine should concede NATO plans, but only as an amendment to the Budapest Memorandum.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    I believe that political leanings have a genetic basis. It is possible to breed wolves into Chihuahuas. Why would people be any different?
    Yes, humans are subject to the same biological laws that govern every other organism, however, I feel like you are ignoring the following:

    1) Humans and canines breed at significantly different rates.
    2) It took thousands of generations to turn wolves into chihuahuas. If we call the Kievan Rus' the "start" of Russian civilization (based on the interval of a generation derived from https://isogg.org/wiki/How_long_is_a...ides_an_answer) then Russian civilization has only existed for about 40 generations. Even if you don't accept ~30 years as a proper definition for a generation, we're still talking tens (barely a hundred if we're being ludicrously generous) of generations instead of thousands. I'm sure there is some subtle effect of migration and mass deaths of certain segments of the population on the population's genetic makeup, but I struggle to believe that this effect alone would have an even barely perceptible effect on politics if studied rigorously (which I'm not even sure how you would go about doing).
    3) Politics, while correlated, are not the same thing as inherited personality tendencies.
    4) Human behaviour is significantly more complex and variable than canine behaviour, and both involve a lot of other factors besides genetics.
    5) Although there are a great many of us around today, the entire current human population descended from a relatively small original population from a highly specific area. Since leaving Africa we've only had probably five to ten thousand generations to diverge from each other in our entire history - and most of that is well before the dawn of civilization.

    Of course, culture and language on the other hand evolves very quickly. It only takes a couple of years to noticeably transform these constructs, but it seems like a bold claim to me to posit that these changes are precipitated by changes in a population's genetic makeup. We aren't a particularly genetically diverse species. I find it easier to accept the interpretation that politics are based in the changing cultural and economic circumstances people find themselves in, and that personality type distribution in a given population is fairly close to random.
    “Things always seem fairer when we look back at them, and it is out of that inaccessible tower of the past that Longing leans and beckons.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    Gamma = Rule of Law.
    Beta = Rule of Claw.
    I certainly don't mean to say that war is a good or desirable thing when I say this, but...
    Somehow I find violence significantly less depressing than legal drama
    “Things always seem fairer when we look back at them, and it is out of that inaccessible tower of the past that Longing leans and beckons.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by AWellArmedCat View Post
    I certainly don't mean to say that war is a good or desirable thing when I say this, but...
    Somehow I find violence significantly less depressing than legal drama
    Why do you feel this way?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    Why do you feel this way?
    No idea. It's an instinctual reaction, not a thoughtful judgement. When I see all these videos of violent tragedy in Ukraine I definitely experience negative feelings. I feel sadness, anger, and a hunger for justice, but I don't feel that grey feeling of deathly, dispiriting depression I get from observing social engineering and authoritarian legal control over everything. I find it personally very easy to romanticize a violent struggle and don't think I'm prone to feeling hopeless in the face of one, but legal struggles seem so much more smothering and hopeless - requiring large sums of money and a different sort of cunning to even have a chance at winning.

    Once again, I'm only speaking about my emotions in response to these things. I don't wish for violence. I assume it's just cause I'm Te-PoLR and value Se
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    Why do you feel this way?
    my guess is that in both situations where u lose, in war u can at least fight. in court u have to sit through ppl telling u whats what while telling u what to do or say and just accept all demands and obligations. tho war sounds more depressing to me.
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    A few observations:

    * Sanctions have an extremely poor track record of instigating regime change. If the Cuban regime is still alive, if Velayat-e Faqih is still alive in spite of Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign, that bodes well for Putin's chances of survival.


    * The immediate winner of the sanctions will be China, which will have access to a buyer's market in cheap minerals and fossil fuels, mimicking Iran's dependence on China.


    * The desire to align Ukraine with Russia isn't unique to Putin; the Russian elite has always felt that Ukraine was central to Russian prestige. Even if Putin wasn't in office, even if the Russian executive had limited powers, Ukraine will still be central to Russian self-perception and nationalism. Ukraine's alignment with the West will always be perceived as invasive and raise the threat of war. George Kennan (the influential American strategist) wrote that the expansion was unnecessarily antagonistic towards Russia.

    Kissinger believed that focusing on Putin as a uniquely antagonistic villain, as opposed to engaging with this fundamental issue, is an alibi for a lack of strategy.


    * What may have changed lately (and what may explain the erratic decision to invade) is Putin's accumulation of more power, which used to be more delegated and dispersed (even within the executive branch, which consisted of 'old guard' who felt and were perceived as more-or-less equal to Putin). Putin may have surrounded himself with yes-men who were too afraid to offer constructive criticism.


    * George Kennan also said that the United States hadn't the capability or intention to protect eastern Europe. I couldn't find any further elaboration, but even if he was wrong, the idea that joining NATO would guarantee a country's safety seems like an unexamined assumption.

    When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, OTOH, the United States intervened militarily and without hesitation, without any soul searching. Kuwait had UNSC protection, but it wasn't part of any ultra formal, multinational alliance with the coalition that liberated it. The United States didn't need a piece of paper, then. Something must be different about Ukraine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, OTOH, the United States intervened militarily and without hesitation, without any soul searching. Kuwait had UNSC protection, but it wasn't part of any ultra formal, multinational alliance with the coalition that liberated it. The United States didn't need a piece of paper, then. Something must be different about Ukraine.
    The US was paid handsomely to intervene, by the gulf states, mainly SA and Kuwait. I remember that emergency Arab Summit. Saudi Arabia and Egypt led the pro US movement and Libya and Yemen were the main opposition. Mubarak steamrolled that summit. Egypt received approximately $7 billion in debt forgiveness for its providing of support and troops for the US-led intervention. Reports of US rewards were said to be close to $30 billion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan View Post
    The US was paid handsomely to intervene, by the gulf states, mainly SA and Kuwait. I remember that emergency Arab Summit. Saudi Arabia and Egypt led the pro US movement and Libya and Yemen were the main opposition. Mubarak steamrolled that summit. Egypt received approximately $7 billion in debt forgiveness for its providing of support and troops for the US-led intervention. Reports of US rewards were said to be close to $30 billion.
    Sure, money and reduced cost would act as an incentive. But there were also important strategic reasons to deny Saddam Hussein from controlling that much oil.

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    Default Peace negotiations

    On Monday the Kremlin laid out Putin’s conditions for peace in Ukraine:
    - Ukraine writes into its constitution that it will never join NATO or the EU
    - Recognize annexed Crimea as Russian territory
    - Accept the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk
    - Ukraine ends all military action

    Yesterday an interviewer asked Zelensky to comment on Putin’s demands. Here’s what he had to say:
    - “I think that items regarding temporarily occupied territories and pseudo-republics not recognized by anyone but Russia, we can discuss and find a compromise on how these territories will live on”
    - “What’s important to me is how the people in those territories who want to be part of Ukraine are going to live”
    - “The question is more difficult than simply acknowledging them. This is another ultimatum and we’re not prepared for ultimatums”
    - “I’m ready for dialogue, we’re not ready for capitulation.”
    - “I have cooled over the issue a long time ago after we understood that NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine”

    So it seems like Zelensky is willing to compromise on the Russian occupied territories and give up NATO.

    I’m interested in the security guarantees Ukraine will need if they accept a deal with Russia.

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    Where the United States wants to intervene, it can and often does, as in the case of Iraq.

    But WRT. Ukraine, the United States may simply never had the intention of defending it. Even knowing about an imminent invasion, NATO was giving explicit statements that there wouldn't be an intervention, not even a preemptive one that positioned NATO troops (backed up, presumably, by nuclear deterrence) on Ukrainian soil in advance. George Kennan said that the United States had no intention of defending eastern Europe.


    It isn't even clear that nuclear deterrence would prevent war, which, frankly, seems like an unexamined assumption. According to this anyway, the Russian military doesn't believe that the calibrated use of nuclear weapons invariably leads to all-out nuclear war. One can presume that they apply the same logic of brinkmanship to the use of conventional force.

    Similar to the ways in which an emerging generation of nuclear strategists view U.S. nuclear policy today, Kofman and Fink write,

    the Russian military does not believe that limited nuclear use necessarily leads to uncontrolled escalation. The Russian military believes that calibrated use of conventional and nuclear capability is not only possible but may have decisive deterrent effects. This is not an enthusiastically embraced strategy, but an establishment’s answers to wicked problems, in the context of a great-power conflict, which have no easy or ideal solutions.
    Honestly, even had Ukraine been a part of NATO, a conflict in Ukraine would still have been a possibility, and would have seemed, at least to many in the West, as too remote, too much someone else's problem. Even worse, it may have been welcomed cynically, by hawks within Western establishments, as a Russian strategic blunder.

    The best solution was (and is) the Finlandization of Ukraine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poptart View Post

    So it seems like Zelensky is willing to compromise on the Russian occupied territories and give up NATO.

    I’m interested in the security guarantees Ukraine will need if they accept a deal with Russia.
    I doubt it. I find it more likely he just wants to look like he's willing to compromise. Time is in Ukraine's favor and not Russia's, so it'd make sense for Zelensky to try to drag this out without actually looking like he's trying to drag the war out.

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    ​As the invader closes in on Kiev, more and more 'info' of this stort starts to make its rounds. People have commented that Russia played a similar hand in Syria: first claim Intelligence detected chemical weapons in possession of the enemy, then use them to kill and blame the other side. I do remember the case of the White Helmets in Syria (I had forgotten about it). It wouldn't be strange if upon enclosing on the Ukrainian capital and meeting fierce resistance, the Russians used chemicals and blamed the opponent of staging the attack themselves. Actually, if one follows their information outlets or social media accounts it's easy to track all the stories they are coming up with just to gain plausibility, e.g. there is one that has started to be disseminated that "neo nazis" Ukr. groups are plotting to kill Zelensky if he becomes too soft in the negotiations. Just so, you know, in case some group associated with the Russians gets to him first and manages to kill him, they have an alternative story.

    https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/s...86665034457092
    "MFA spox #Zakharova: Recently found documents show that components of biological weapons were made in #Ukraine's laboratories, with funding from #US@DeptofDefense
    , in direct proximity to #Russia."



    Sicuramente cercherai il significato di questo.

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    I saw an article on Reddit today claiming that Putin has fired 8 top military generals since the start of the invasion.

    In an attempt to learn more about this story, I googled “Putin fires generals”. There were literally SO many reports of him firing military generals en masse over the last decade.

    In the business world, high turnover is an indicator of poor leadership. I’m guessing this also applies to high levels of government lol.

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    I have no idea what is going on tbh. Behind the scenes god only knows what’s really really going on. The news is so pro propaganda-ish and we are all a bunch of peasants here, mostly, I’m assuming. I seriously feel brainwashed. I took a political survey yesterday that was so biased it was ridiculous. And at the end they asked my thoughts, and I told them they had some really great brainwashing material right there. Maybe I should shut up. Ill prob end up getting shot, but sometimes I have a really hard time curbing my sarcastic assholism. I think it might even be worth death for the pleasure I get from it.
    To be fair @asterr I think it might be a Te polr issue and it is true the media tries to manipulate so much. But I just don't see how they are manipulating about Putin or this issue - in fact they are probably toning down how fucked up he is in order to be neutral or faux-logical like or something. You can just look into his eyes and tell he's a warmongering douchebag. /shrug. The media reporting the obvious isn't really 'brainwashing.' Putin is good at manipulating stupid homophobes though and the media probably doesn't like that cuz they are very GLBT friendly usually. They should be nicer to regular nuclear families I guess but respect works both ways idk.

    I don't think you'll get shot for your views lol but in this day and age ppl might try to cancel you if you have a platform that makes money maybe or you'll have a 4D Te social worker come to your house to make sure you're thinking only the 'correct thoughts.' Ewwwww yeah I don't like that either- but I have Te polr myself even though I'm not really against the Te on this one? lol

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    Are there no healthy Beta societies where you get hanged, imprisoned or suicided for speaking.
    No?
    Okay I will save them the trouble and kill myself then.
    “I want the following word: splendor, splendor is fruit in all its succulence, fruit without sadness. I want vast distances. My savage intuition of myself.”
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    in English language
    Russian view about military activity on ex-USSR territory known as "borderland" and some other
    http://eu.eot.su/tag/classical-war/

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sol View Post
    in English language
    Russian view about military activity on ex-USSR territory known as "borderland" and some other
    http://eu.eot.su/tag/classical-war/
    This is very interesting, @Sol. I don't see too many news feeds from Russia and it's good to know what news Russians are seeing.

    In this same vein,



    For the first five years or so of the Vietnam war, the US citizens were told it was going very well.

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    It's not about hatred but holding people accountable for their actions type of thing. I was being sassy per usual but not hateful lol. Anyways a person's righteous anger isn't the same thing as hatred either. When some homosexual males do in fact actually molest children ((not because they are teh gay but because they are teh fucked up)) - it would be fair to say the gentile str8 people townsfolk have well-deserved righteous anger anyway and not "hatred." There can be a thin line sure but whatever.

    I also feel like this site that was posted was quite dumb and misguided. https://jabberwocking.com/maybe-we-s...ff-a-tiny-bit/ I wouldn't do those things anyway even though I strongly disagree with the way the Russian leaders are leading their people not the Russians themselves, obviously. What misguided SJW bullshit.

    I also wouldn't ever listen to those artists anyway I don't think- not to virtue signal about Russian political BS - but because I don't think I was ever into them anyway. God this is so 1D Fi it hurts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shazaam View Post
    It's not about hatred but holding people accountable for their actions type of thing. I was being sassy per usual but not hateful lol. Anyways a person's righteous anger isn't the same thing as hatred either. When some homosexual males do in fact actually molest children ((not because they are teh gay but because they are teh fucked up)) - it would be fair to say the gentile str8 people townsfolk have well-deserved righteous anger anyway and not "hatred." There can be a thin line sure but whatever.

    I also feel like this site that was posted was quite dumb and misguided. https://jabberwocking.com/maybe-we-s...ff-a-tiny-bit/ I wouldn't do those things anyway even though I strongly disagree with the way the Russian leaders are leading their people not the Russians themselves, obviously. What misguided SJW bullshit.

    I also wouldn't ever listen to those artists anyway I don't think- not to virtue signal about Russian political BS - but because I don't think I was ever into them anyway.

    God this is so 1D Fi it hurts.
    The blog-writer who wrote that post that I linked self-identifies as an ILI. I, however, certainly am 1D Fi. Guilty as charged.

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    Yeah maybe I do hate Putin and some Russians for being homophobic douchebags. Maybe I do hate some regular townsfolk people for being so easily manipulated by a 'but what about the childreeeeeeen' power play.

    So fucking what. Scapegoating hatred as a bad thing is so petty and small to me here. Don't tell me that hatred destroys the hater and other Wayne Dyer faux-spiritual bullshit. Tell that to all the innocent Ukranians being blowed up by a douchebag. Hatred destroys the HATED while the hater laughs and sips champagne from their window.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shazaam View Post
    Yeah maybe I do hate Putin and some Russians for being homophobic douchebags. Maybe I do hate some regular townsfolk people for being so easily manipulated by a 'but what about the childreeeeeeen' power play.

    So fucking what. Scapegoating hatred as a bad thing is so petty and small to me here. Don't tell me that hatred destroys the hater and other Wayne Dyer faux-spiritual bullshit. Tell that to all the innocent Ukranians being blowed up by a douchebag. Hatred destroys the HATED while the hater laughs and sips champagne from their window.
    OK, I won't say that hatred harms the hater. I wasn't really thinking about that, to be honest. I was thinking about more practical stuff.

    Like, how do regimes really get replaced? Is it by lots of "little people" kicking each other? No. Regimes get replaced by equally powerful actors who step into a power vacuum. In Russia, as in the US right now, there is no power vacuum, so there will be no regime change.

    Reducing the net worth of the average Russian is not going to create a force in Russian society which will overthrow Putin, no matter how much we wish it or he deserves it. On the other hand, sanctions will reduce the ability of Russian industry to wage wars. Whether that happens before Russia levels all the Ukrainian cities remains to be seen.

    But our enemy is not the Russian people, but rather it is mafia states which step on individual rights.

    I will add that you will never change someone's mind by disrespecting them. You can disagree with them, but you have to respect both them and their views.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AWellArmedCat View Post
    No idea. It's an instinctual reaction, not a thoughtful judgement. When I see all these videos of violent tragedy in Ukraine I definitely experience negative feelings. I feel sadness, anger, and a hunger for justice, but I don't feel that grey feeling of deathly, dispiriting depression I get from observing social engineering and authoritarian legal control over everything. I find it personally very easy to romanticize a violent struggle and don't think I'm prone to feeling hopeless in the face of one, but legal struggles seem so much more smothering and hopeless - requiring large sums of money and a different sort of cunning to even have a chance at winning.

    Once again, I'm only speaking about my emotions in response to these things. I don't wish for violence. I assume it's just cause I'm Te-PoLR and value Se
    it's a Te polr issue. Often in legal cases, there is power hungry LSE judges that will misunderstand what IEIs say or take us to be too evil and them heroes. They often get pissed though cuz they often can't punish us as much as they would like to unlike our Fi polr sensor duals lol. I can't say I always like barbarism better or whatever but Se has a lot of carnality to it I think and IEIs dual seek Se and are weak against Te lol.

    oh I guess this isn't to say that some IEIs don't deserve the harsh rule of law despite the Te polr because well ... obviously they do like it's been said that one sexual abuse cult leader dude was IEI and got sent to prison for life for it I think or maybe death penalty too I'm not sure lol.

    I think in a lot of heavy Te valuing institutions, a lot of good natured IEI playfulness and ribbing will get twisted to mean something it doesn't as well even if the iei really isn't some horrible monster.

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    also yeah The Law is stern and serious and Te and authoriative and straight. For many years up until only very recently tbh gay/some bi guys have always been on the wrong side of the law cuz of this really - it was so natural in a socionics sense. There ain't nothin' gay about using the words 'pursuant to section 5 article 6 - thou shalt not be inappropriate and vulgar' like a goddamn snobby hetero with a stick up your ass. Even if you could accept the fact not all gays were bad- why in the hell would a strong Te valuer value the Fe gayness??

    I think a lot of the respect gays got objectively was due to IEE SJwism for that reason. IEEs really helped mend a lot of bridges between the hellish wars of IEI vs LSE with their 2D valued Te and their unvalued 4D Fe. Everybody likes to make fun of it but really without it, in an objective sense- gays would be fucked so hard and not in the good way.

    It's funny to me when I meet people who have to like always abide by the Te handbook but I mean yeah, there are going to be people like that in life I have to deal with not everybody is going to think like me. Sadly.

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    Ukraine's Bayraktar drones have been really effective at taking out Russian convoys and anti-air defenses. It has been one of the most useful tools in the Ukrainian arsenal. There is even a "Bayraktar" song now (the Russians already have "Katyusha").

    https://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...lla-air-force/

    For whatever reasons, though, the Russians aren't deploying their air force, which would make quick work of these drones.


    On the one hand, Ukraine's smaller army could use all the help it can get. On the other hand, the rise of robotic warfare using disposable machines seems ominous.

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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lf5C...annel=LazerPig
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPBU...annel=LazerPig

    Great takes on the situation by the guy who might as well have prepared the last 10 years of his life for this

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/arti...ng-for-defeat/

    Another guy's take, copy pasted here:

    "
    I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:
    1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
    2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
    3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
    4. The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.
    5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.
    6. The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.
    7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?
    8. The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
    9. The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.
    10. Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist.
    11. Turkish drones will become bestsellers.
    12. A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians. "

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    Glorious Member mu4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baqer View Post
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lf5C...annel=LazerPig
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPBU...annel=LazerPig

    Great takes on the situation by the guy who might as well have prepared the last 10 years of his life for this

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/arti...ng-for-defeat/

    Another guy's take, copy pasted here:

    "
    I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:
    1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
    2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
    3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
    4. The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.
    5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.
    6. The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.
    7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?
    8. The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
    9. The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.
    10. Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist.
    11. Turkish drones will become bestsellers.
    12. A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians. "
    Fukiyama is a wishful thinker, he was so wrong the last time about pretty much everything. I don't think he has much shot of being right this time either.
    A lot of this and what he said in the past is basically liberal capitalist wish fulfillment. His book of history has basically been followed up by history punching him and his wishful thinking in the face for 30 years.

    You have Brexit, the rise of right wing nationalism in the west, Trump, etc. All forces that aren't going away, you have incredible wealth disparity that is growing everywhere in the west which fuel these forces. This is a moment of clarity for the waning western powers but without fundamental rethinking of how to approach the welfare of the people, inevitably there will be turmoil.

    Fighting Russia/China economically may in the short term accelerate these forces which will put even less competent and more unscrupulous leadership in charge. This will be a serious crisis in Russia and I'm not sure what will happen in Central Europe or Russia.

    This war helps the Chinese a lot and the Chinese are just fundamentally thinking much longer term than the US for a while now, they will be patient if they attack at all.

    Chinese also hate war, nobody wants war anywhere, much less to take back their a rogue province which isn't even a country per UN charter or it's own constitution, which specifies that as well. This is why the Chinese are so focused on economics, because the believe with enough economic might they might entice Taiwan back. It's only after China has become #1 economically and the US's internal problems have become too debilitating that China will make a move on Taiwan, if the KMT in Taiwan doesn't outright give themselves up to China.

    If there is a war between China on Taiwan, they also won't need to lie to kids about why they are taking it. It's literally just ending a civil war. If the US wasn't backing Taiwan, Taiwan would have long been in Chinese's hands. The current situation is just American intervention in the sovereignty of China. The Chinese soldiers would be willing to die for this still, and they could go into this conflict with good morale, also it is highly unlikely they would go in if they were not assured of a swift victory. Also the kind of guerilla warfare that's happening in Ukraine would probably be unthinkable for Taiwanese. Also most of you kids probably don't know but prior to 1970's the current PRC wasn't even a country in the UN. And the Taiwanese claimed Mongolia until 1961. Xi and the Chinese leadership literally grew in a world where they were completely a nonstate like Taiwan is today.

    Ukraine is a country of battled hardened soldiers since they've had a war for 8 years, Taiwan's reason for existence are people that got their ass kicked by the Communists 70 years ago running away while being funded by the US. The Communists literally did to the KMT what the Ukrainians are doing to the Russians.

    The conditions for China taking Taiwan by force require a few things to happen.

    1. Yuan as hard currency
    2. Internal replacement of SWIFT
    3. Access to food and natural resources
    4. Western collapse
    5. No possibility of peaceful reunification

    Unlike Russia which produces not much but oil and gas, China literally is the biggest manufacturer in the world. They are the best now and their manufacturing tech is very high end. They lag behind only in things like semiconductors.

    Anyways, it's not likely China will be willing to attack Taiwan unless their leadership completely collapses into delusions, which is entirely possible given human frailty. But it will have to be the Americans who fight that as well. At the end of the day war is about economies, and China's dwarfs Russias.

    The west basically dodged a bullet because Trump didn't get elected a 2nd time, can you imagine a World where Trump was President and Russia invaded Ukraine, nobody would have gotten intel, Trump would have left NATO, etc.

    What I don't want to happen is people thinking that what's happening in Ukraine and their distant support of it is going to solve the very real problems the west is facing, because those solutions have to arise internally.

  38. #518
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    OK, I won't say that hatred harms the hater. I wasn't really thinking about that, to be honest. I was thinking about more practical stuff.

    Like, how do regimes really get replaced? Is it by lots of "little people" kicking each other? No. Regimes get replaced by equally powerful actors who step into a power vacuum. In Russia, as in the US right now, there is no power vacuum, so there will be no regime change.

    Reducing the net worth of the average Russian is not going to create a force in Russian society which will overthrow Putin, no matter how much we wish it or he deserves it. On the other hand, sanctions will reduce the ability of Russian industry to wage wars. Whether that happens before Russia levels all the Ukrainian cities remains to be seen.

    But our enemy is not the Russian people, but rather it is mafia states which step on individual rights.

    I will add that you will never change someone's mind by disrespecting them. You can disagree with them, but you have to respect both them and their views.
    there is habituated helplessness in that little people refuse to grow bc they think they cant do anything or that its worthless to try or that they are simple little people who shouldnt meddle anywhere. they absolve themselves of responsibility by making themsleves little. they let someone step in and take control. usually that someone's hierarchy controls others by fear on one part and the rest being worthless who have nothing better to live for than being abusers and serving an abuser. putin is not alone in what he's doing. im not advocating for the sanctions.

    and the disrespect thing is really bothering me. someone can ruin lives and take so much away, and then ur not even allowed to curse them, cry about it, yell bc its disrespectful. whatever the severity of what they did i dont see any reason for someone giving a shit about disrespect besides trauma making them hyperreactive to anything critical/negative which is easy to happen with someone under a lot of stress/trauma. theres ok disrespect and not ok disrespect and situations where its sensible for the disrespect to be understandable even if the disrespected person is in the right, and the opposite.
    Edit: this is nothing intended against adam
    Last edited by VewyScawwyNawcissist; 03-13-2022 at 06:57 PM.
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    I have the greatest respect for Vindman. I think the guy is ESI.


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    Yeah some people deserve to be disrespected if they are being douchebags. And this isn't a 'hurr hurr both sides are being assholes so ahem let's just all be respectful' thing either- and it's not about feeling SJW empathy for the Innocent Russian Townfolk. If the Innocent Russian Townfolk really are Innocent, they will see Putin for the jerk he really is and not support him just because he hates fags.

    I mean, Sol posted a bunch of anti-gay crap numerous times but I never posted anything anti-Russian- yet you are unnecessarily supervising me. I have absolutely nothing at all against the Russian people- but Sol obviously has something against me being GLBT. That's not "playing victim" - it's just the reality you 1D ethical you.

    Gaslightza is just a delusional old fool being manipulated by Trump and his cronies and can't get her head out of her ass to see the reality of anything. Being so caught up in her narcissistic "religion" like a female High Sparrow. Oh I know I'm not being respectful. I'm being a catty little bitch. But if you want to coddle them thinking you can save them go on right ahead. It turned out so well for AnnaLynne McCord LOL.

    This is how jerks like Putin always come into power. "Oh he's being so respectful and reasonable unlike that drag queen Shazaam!" /gives him even more power. Then *backstabs* *explosions*

    Aramas was so dead on right when he said supervisors should listen to their supervisees and not the other way around. LOL.

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