The Ukraine Question

[Baqer]

You might think that Russia is at the same stage as France was in 1789, but France had a small (disenfranchised), but growing, middle class, and a bankrupt ruling class, while Russia seems to be losing it's middle class as the guys at the top steal more and more. Poor, beaten people are not the ones who clamor for their rights, so my feeling is that Russia will remain a mafia state until some other, stronger power displaces the elites. I think that Kamil Galeev had a thread on who might displace Putin, but if Putin is replaced by some class from within Russia, the Russian government will not have any need or reason to abandon mafia tactics.

I think the best case scenario, fittingly, is exactly what Russia wants to do to Ukraine to make it easier to control, federalization. In one of the threads Kamil made about courtiers and barons, he mentioned how during the fall of the USSR Russia became extremely federalized, with power being concentrated in governors and local officials, but as time has gone on Putin has done everything he could to take that power away. So by pushing Russia into another chaotic state which, best case scenario involves even more balkanization(and no accidental nuke accidents). At that point, at least Russia will be even less of a threat, and more importantly will allow for these more autonomous areas to become more tied to the west.

Of course, that'll all depend on the details. Though I think at this point I'd be surprised if Russia doesn't go through a crisis period similar to that of 1991.

[Adam Strange]

I think the best case scenario, fittingly, is exactly what Russia wants to do to Ukraine to make it easier to control, federalization. In one of the threads Kamil made about courtiers and barons, he mentioned how during the fall of the USSR Russia became extremely federalized, with power being concentrated in governors and local officials, but as time has gone on Putin has done everything he could to take that power away. So by pushing Russia into another chaotic state which, best case scenario involves even more balkanization(and no accidental nuke accidents). At that point, at least Russia will be even less of a threat, and more importantly will allow for these more autonomous areas to become more tied to the west.

Of course, that'll all depend on the details. Though I think at this point I'd be surprised if Russia doesn't go through a crisis period similar to that of 1991.

I actually don't think that this war will affect Russia all that much. Yes, 10% of their military has been destroyed and they have proven to be no match against a modern (US) army, but no one is talking about invading Russia, not even the Ukrainians. Although, if I were Zelensky, I'd be offering farms to European immigrants while building up a military capable of marching on Moscow in ten years. It's only 450 miles away from Kiev. I've driven 450 miles in nine hours.

Germany seems content to continue with the low-cost solution of continuing to buy Russian gas, and so Russia will retain a steady if low flow of international income while its population continues to fall and every Russian who has the wherewithal to emigrate does so. China will continue to do nothing. The US won't act even if the Russian government falls. Russia's nuclear weapons ensures that outcome.
We had a chance to buy all the Soviet nuclear weapons after 1990, but did we? Noooooo. That would be far too expensive.

The average Russian has nothing to do with the government; they are just slaves to be worked and taken advantage of, and if Russia remains dirt poor (which is most likely), then the Russian people will remain poor and powerless, too.

No, I don't think that Putin will be replaced any time soon. He's going to die in bed of old age. By then, Russia will be a junk yard if the West continues to enforce sanctions, and then we may get another chance to buy their nuclear capability for the price of some Dodge Nitros and some Nissan Jukes.

But who knows? Maybe Putin will accidentally fall out of a fourth-story window, or will mistakenly drink some Polonium tea.

One never knows.

[Hot Scalding Gayser]

It's funny watching Americans defending Ukraine's right to decide its own foreign policy. Because, I assure you, none of the United States' neighbours are allowed to have a fully independent foreign policy of their own.

Even recently, the United States forced Canada to detain an important Chinese businesswoman. It caused a diplomatic spat between China and Canada, one in which China retaliated by imprisoning Canadian citizens (on bogus charges) and sanctioning Canadian imports. Canada was used as fodder in order to advance American foreign policy interests (the businesswoman was skirting American sanctions on Iran, sanctions which Canada doesn't even recognize). The Canadian court found no cause for extradition in the end, but damage was done.

If Mexico or Canada participated in Chinese wargames off the coast of California; allowed China to use their bases; and left NORAD, weakening American nuclear security in the process; would the United States not go a little ballistic (both figuratively and literally)? Like NATO, imagine that this alliance also provides intelligence-sharing and cybersecurity integration (don't think for a moment that the United States doesn't deploy cyber attacks).

Training with China means using the same hardware, which means buying Chinese-made weapons, trucks, cars, bullet-proof vests, and aircraft instead of American. And if that meant losing X million American manufacturing jobs, I'd wonder whether even Bernie Sanders would rediscover the Monroe Doctrine.

Ukraine has earned its independence; of that there's absolutely no question. And even if it loses, the Ukrainian struggle will be remembered and glorified for a very long time. Russia has done a very, very bad thing. But it'd be nice if Americans showed a little more introspection before criticizing Russia for wanting its own sphere of influence.

You shouldn't ever discourage or make fun of people for doing or trying to do the right thing even if obviously they have their own fucked up shit to work on. If that was the case nothing good or healing or productive would get done ever. If I was being chased by a serial killer, and somebody thought that they didn't have the right to stop them because they shoplifted before ((or even something more serious like bank robbery, I mean it's just an example)) is just flat-out ethically retarded.

The bigger ethical issue above all this crap is people thinking they are righteous and playing God, and how falsely limiting and insecure paper contracts are no matter how "official" people make them. You can have your own sphere of influence without vampircally trying to turn everything into yourself. Basic empathetic respect is co-existance with others who are different, basic narcissism is Putin becoming an Idea of himself and making everybody a clone of himself because he's cuckoo.

[Baqer]

I actually don't think that this war will affect Russia all that much. Yes, 10% of their military has been destroyed and they have proven to be no match against a modern (US) army, but no one is talking about invading Russia, not even the Ukrainians. Although, if I were Zelensky, I'd be offering farms to European immigrants while building up a military capable of marching on Moscow in ten years. It's only 450 miles away from Kiev. I've driven 450 miles in nine hours.

Well I don't think Russia is gonna fall because of military disaster, I(Well, mostly Kamil) think they're just on the same trajectory as they were after the Russo-Japanese War and the Russian war in Afghanistan. Maybe it won't be as fast as after Afghanistan, with something more similar to the Revolution of 1905 as opposed to 1917, but we're still talking a very obvious downward trajectory.

I don't know how long Russia is going to last in it's current form, but I'd be surprised if it lasts more than a few years past Putin.

[Adam Strange]

The Moscow stock market reopened today with a major rally. Evidently, the government spent one trillion rubles to support stock prices and, correspondingly, the Russian elites who own the stocks. Foreign investors can't take out their money.

As someone said, price supports might be compensation for the oligarch's losses from confiscations in other countries.

It will be interesting to see how long these stock prices stay high. Anyone with half a brain knows that none of these companies are going to be showing an actual profit in the coming year. US financial institutions are predicting that the Russian economy will shrink by 10% this year, and by 25% in the next three years.

"Hey, please lend me $1000. In three years, I will give you back $750. Thank you very much."

With the value of the Ruble falling, everything that Russians purchase from other countries (technology, mainly) is going to become much more expensive, assuming they can get that stuff at all.

https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/statu...C-pZrpheopAAAA

[Adam Strange]

While the world is saying they will sanction the Russian oligarchs, London seems to be doing something quite different.

https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1501878715709632518

London is the money laundering capital of the world.

[Ryan]

Can you imagine how it's like to be a Russian investor right now with all the already existing volatility in global markets? Honestly, if it wasn't for the expected destruction of value everywhere in Russia I would want to experience that. I have had a similar experience after the 2008 global recession and my local portfolio is up 300% since 2016 when I entered the stock market. I didn't even buy the dip. Someone is bound to make some money off of that.

[Ryan]

While the world is saying they will sanction the Russian oligarchs, London seems to be doing something quite different.

https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1501878715709632518

London is the money laundering capital of the world.

Apparently she was sanctioned today. Guess a little exposure is all what was needed lol.

https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1506954611122491394

[xerx]

You shouldn't ever discourage or make fun of people for doing or trying to do the right thing even if obviously they have their own fucked up shit to work on. If that was the case nothing good or healing or productive would get done ever.

That's fair.

[xerx]

https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/statu...C-pZrpheopAAAA

Loool at "Potemkin rally".

[Adam Strange]

This article is from Daily KOS, which is pretty liberal and is not that careful about checking sources (about 10% of Fox News, but in the other direction), but the author is basically reproducing a letter, so it's probably not that far off from the truth.

"A response to More about why the Russian army sucks."

A lesson in where Authoritarian ideology leads.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...ian-army-sucks

[xerx]

This article is from Daily KOS, which is pretty liberal and is not that careful about checking sources (about 10% of Fox News, but in the other direction), but the author is basically reproducing a letter, so it's probably not that far off from the truth.

"A response to More about why the Russian army sucks."

A lesson in where Authoritarian ideology leads.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...ian-army-sucks

Reminds of stories from the Syrian civil war: Soldiers would defect to the rebels because their platoon commander treated them like shit, not for any ideological reasons.

[xerx]

From Kamil Galeev

The morbid propaganda and imagery of Russian mercenaries —basically a Nazi-themed death cult.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...04629309132800

[Adam Strange]

From Kamil Galeev

The morbid propaganda and imagery of Russian mercenaries —basically a Nazi-themed death cult.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...04629309132800

So this is where those guys in Junior High ended up. I wondered about that.

[Park]

[Adam Strange]

Yesterday a 7th Russian General was killed in Ukraine, while a brigade commander was intentionally run over by a tank, driven by one of his own troops.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1507404485542518785

You might think it's dangerous to be a general in Ukraine, but it's dangerous to be a Russian general anywhere.

The Russian defense minister was just reported to have had a "heart attack." We might assume that he didn't have it while passing the 7th floor, but we don't know that for sure.

He follows in a long line of traditional ways that Russian generals retire.

https://twitter.com/EdoardoS95/statu...75997834293256

[xerx]

So this is where those guys in Junior High ended up. I wondered about that.

A few of them end up in the police force.

[Adam Strange]

https://youtu.be/q0B1kxT57c0

https://youtu.be/7fOsIY9ioQQ

Hi, Park. @<a href="https://www.the16types.info/vbulletin/member.php?u=307" target="_blank">Park</a>.

It's possible that those videos you posted were Russian productions. It seems likely to me, anyway.

For another, entirely unpolished look at the way the Russian invaders are treating the Ukrainians, click on the video at this link: https://www.reddit.com/user/Regrup/

Russian phone communications are easily intercepted and recorded.
The Russian heard in the video is talking to his GF and he doesn't sound to me like he's acting. Nor does she.

[Adam Strange]

According to Ukrainian reports, the Russian military has reportedly destroyed a brand new children’s rehabilitation center in Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/st...38340076974084

Obviously, anyone who has kids knows that the children did this to the building themselves.

[xerx]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ling-oil-deals

Saudi Arabia is talking to China about pricing some oil in Yuan instead of $. The fact that Yuan isn't a floating currency makes holding it less worthwhile, but the fact that a Petroyuan is being considered at all is geopolitically significant.

China is almost certainly watching how the Russian sanctions play out; is probably gaming the effects of possible sanctions on Chinese banks / the freezing of dollar-denominated Chinese assets.

[xerx]

The silver-lining to this mess would be the quicker transition to more renewable sources of energy (and nuclear). A far worse outcome would be the reversion to using coal.

[xerx]

No two countries that both had McDonald's had fought a war against each other since each got its McDonald's.

At least we can put this idea to rest.

[xerx]

Oh snap! Shots fired.

Russian fast-food chain backed by parliament to replace McDonald’s reveals near-identical branding

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2037987.html

[Adam Strange]

At least we can put this idea to rest.

That was said by Thomas Friedman, and it's disproval means that there wasn't anything he ever said that wasn't bullshit. He had that one statement going for him for a long time, but eventually, it proved to be cut from the same cloth as everything else he ever said.

[Minde]

I just learned about dedovshchina. OMG. I had to stop reading. This is how humans turn into animals.

They say it's been "getting better" since 2008 but it's also just how things are.

[Adam Strange]

How sanctions are killing Russia:

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...20680737218562

[Adam Strange]

An interesting suggestion on how sanctions will break up Russia, state by state.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...20688500920321

[Adam Strange]

Well, Russia is fucked for sure, now. They killed his dog.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...534080/photo/1

[xerx]

An interesting suggestion on how sanctions will break up Russia, state by state.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...20688500920321

Adam, I can tell that you're writing this with glee. But do you really want the "Islamic Emirate of Tatarstan" to have control over nuclear weapons? — A not unlikely scenario that might result from the breakup of Russia.

[Adam Strange]

Adam, I can tell that you're writing this with glee. But do you really want the "Islamic Emirate of Tatarstan" to have control over nuclear weapons? — A not unlikely scenario that might result from the breakup of Russia.

If the breakup results in babooshkas pulling plows in their Victory gardens, then I'm fairly sure the new states will trade their nuclear weapons for a few John Deere tractors.

There is another angle to nuclear weapons. They require maintenance (the radiation kills the electronics and the wiring and, to be honest, it even weakens the metal that the bomb is made from) and the really effective weapons require fresh Tritium gas to enhance the explosion. The products that Tritium decay into dampen the explosion, so the stuff needs to be maintained and replaced. I think that Tritium is about $20,000 per gram, so what are the chances that the team that goes around Russia to replenish the gas hasn't siphoned off some of the gas to sell on the world market? If these weapons haven't been fully serviced or completely replaced in the last ten to fifteen years, they are probably not going to work. Just like 20%-50% of Russia's rockets right now. Just like the tires on their vehicles.

I'm not suggesting that we count on these weapons not working, because a lot of them have been built in the last ten years and probably work just fine. However, it takes a large organization to maintain these things, and Russia is falling below that threshold. I think it would be wise to make it a priority to buy every last bomb, working or not, that we can find.

A recent post of a picture of the electronics inside a Russian rocket. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com..._super_rocket/ It's worthwhile reading the comments.

[Not A Communist Shill]

[Adam Strange]

https://twitter.com/JasonRoss70/stat...580740/photo/1

[Baqer]

At least we can put this idea to rest.

No two countries that both had McDonald's had fought a war against each other since each got its McDonald's* without McDonald's leaving the aggressor country in retaliation.

Alright, lets see how many years this lasts.

[xerx]

Alright fellas, have your little regime change. But Russian revolutions have never led to anything good — not for Russians, not for anyone else (and certainly not the Ukrainians).

[Adam Strange]

The Russian Army command is failing to reinforce troops in Ukraine with workable tanks and APCs from storage depots because optics, electronics and engine parts on the majority of them were stolen.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/stat...CymcPbouwpAAAA

Heck, they just aren't looking for the parts in the right places.

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_fro...ptics&_sacat=0




*EDIT*
I have one of these and the optics are superb and the price is basically free for what you are getting. Thank you, Russia!

https://www.ebay.com/itm/23409937444...UAAOSwb6Bg-R7z

[xerx]

The Russian Army command is failing to reinforce troops in Ukraine with workable tanks and APCs from storage depots because optics, electronics and engine parts on the majority of them were stolen.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/stat...CymcPbouwpAAAA

Damn, they even stole the copper wire. If only the Russians had applied that level of thoroughness to their operational planning.

[xerx]

According to Putin, Russia will survive Western sanctions because its economy is configured differently from the West's.

Russian economics: When the tank's copper wiring is worth more than the tank.

[Adam Strange]

This guy's YouTube channel contains some pretty funny posts about how the war in Ukraine is going, from the Ukrainian perspective.
I think the guy is SLI.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYL...88O2LjWaiYqV8A

Adam, I can tell that you're writing this with glee. But do you really want the "Islamic Emirate of Tatarstan" to have control over nuclear weapons? — A not unlikely scenario that might result from the breakup of Russia.

"Operator Starsky" reframed your question about having the "Islamic Emirate of Tatarstan" having control over nuclear weapons, at 18:00, but the whole video is worth watching.

[Park]

It's possible that those videos you posted were Russian productions.

No, they're not. The guy's been doing on the ground reporting from ex-Soviet territory (and beyond) since 2012, including Crimea and Donbas.

These discussions were also not Russian productions:

[xerx]

"Operator Starsky" reframed your question about having the "Islamic Emirate of Tatarstan" having control over nuclear weapons, at 18:00, but the whole video is worth watching.

I still disagree that breaking that place up will be a win for humanity. Opening Russia up is like opening Pandora's box.

Putin may be a deserving target of hatred, but he's just the scum that rose to the top. There is a lot more scum hiding beneath the surface of Russian society.