The Ukraine Question

[Park]

But I also believe that giving money to Ukraine in their fight against a murderous invader will also solve problems at home, because Putin will not stop at Ukraine and apologists like yourself will open the door for him.

Putin is no more of a murderous invader than George W. Bush or any POTUS in recent history, including Biden. This conflict will end in whichever way Putin wants it to end and ignorant bozos like yourself will allow the military–industrial complex and select politicians to profit off of the blood and torment of Ukrainian and Russian people. On the upside, we might get the privilege to witness nuclear warfare in our lifetimes.

But seriously, Adam, how can you think you're protecting Ukraine by pouring $40B worth of extremely destructive weapons onto their soil to ensure the war lasts years instead of months, while your government is blocking diplomatic attempts to end it?

[Park]

@Minde I have no idea what your problem is but I wish you'd stop trolling.

[Northstar]

Putin is no more of a murderous invader than George W. Bush or any POTUS in recent history, including Biden. This conflict will end in whichever way Putin wants it to end and ignorant bozos like yourself will allow the military–industrial complex and select politicians to profit off of the blood and torment of Ukrainian and Russian people.

Russian bootlicker much? Is Putin your best buddy?

[Park]

Anti-war left is dead in America. Fuck AOC and the Squad, and everyone else who voted for this bill.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/10/p...ill/index.html

"All 57 votes in opposition were from Republicans."

https://scheerpost.com/2022/05/11/gr...-who-benefits/

"The amounts allocated thus far — the new Biden request of $33 billion combined with the $14 billion already spent — already exceed the average annual amount the U.S. spent for its own war in Afghanistan ($46 billion). In the twenty-year U.S. war in Afghanistan which ended just eight months ago, there was at least some pretense of a self-defense rationale given the claim that the Taliban had harbored Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda at the time of the 9/11 attack. Now the U.S. will spend more than that annual average after just ten weeks of a war in Ukraine that nobody claims has any remote connection to American self-defense."

"The total amount spent by the U.S. on the Russia/Ukraine war in less than three months is close to Russia’s total military budget for the entire year ($65.9 billion). While Washington depicts Russia as some sort of grave and existential menace to the U.S., the reality is that the U.S. spends more than ten times on its military what Russia spends on its military each year; indeed, the U.S. spends three times more than the second-highest military spender, China, and more than the next twelve countries combined."

"But how does any of this benefit the vast majority of Americans? Does that even matter? As of 2020, almost 30 million Americans are without any health insurance. Over the weekend, USA Today warned of “the ongoing infant formula shortage,” in which “nearly 40% of popular baby formula brands were sold out at retailers across the U.S. during the week starting April 24.” So many Americans are unable to afford college for their children that close to a majority are delaying plans or eliminating them all together. Meanwhile, “monthly poverty remained elevated in February 2022, with a 14.4 percent poverty rate for the total US population…"

[Poptart]

Russia apparently dropped white phosphorus on Mariupol steelworkers. So far I’ve only seen it reported in British tabloids, so hopefully it’s not true. Phosphorus bombs are horrific.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...teelworks.html

Interesting read: The invisible Ukrainian who walked 225km to safety from Mariupol

[lynn]

Posting these videos really didn't age well considering what happened in other places such as Irpin and Bucha.

[Adam Strange]

Posting these videos really didn't age well considering what happened in other places such as Irpin and Bucha.

Well, then, let's update them with a video that was filmed more recently in Bucha, Irpin, Borodyanka, and Hostomel.

[Adam Strange]

A military is rarely better than the country that fields it.

How Russian commanders treat their soldiers:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...ir_commanders/

How Ukrainians treat Russian POWs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQPa3y2sQjs

What produces a government like Russia's?
Authoritarianism.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...in-putinology/




.

[Adam Strange]

An insightful statement about war:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...nd_on_youtube/

The comments are also worth reading.

[xerx]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...d-other-goods/

The Kremlin is considering pegging the Ruble to gold........ interesting development.

[xerx]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...d-other-goods/

The Kremlin is considering pegging the Ruble to gold........ interesting development.

Yet contradicted by Russia's central bank: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/kr...115807093.html

[leckysupport]

This conflict will end in whichever way Putin wants it to end...

Since serious western interference the war has passed the point of manageable complexity, for Putin and everyone else.

This war is now officially a mess, and it will end when it ends.

That is Putin's major mistake, being thrown off by "unforeseen" consequences.

[xerx]

So, Russia's income from exports hasn't fallen as a result of sanctions. The higher energy prices have compensated for the lowered purchase of Russian fossil fuels. Russia is making more money from energy exports than it otherwise would have without sanctions.

The Ruble has fully recovered from its dip, but this is due heavily to capital controls (raising of interest rates, etc.).

But sanctions are definitely hitting Russia when it comes to imports. It's running out of actual, physical stuff (microchips, etc.) that it needs. I guess we'll soon discover the extent of Russia's self-sufficiency (Mr. Putin insists that it is).

[xerx]

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...st-to-its-side

^ Russia has a strong online campaign to influence non-Westerners to back Russia. This job is no doubt made easier by the fact that many non-Westerners regard the United States as an imperial power in its own right (due, among other things, to the Iraq War and its history of support for less-than-democratic governments). There are also long-standing nationalist sentiments, as well as residual anti-colonial resentments, directed against Western Europeans.

No one besides the West (and eastern Europe) has followed the sanctions imposed on Russia. That includes staunch American allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkey (which is also a NATO member). Ukraine is also seen, by and large, as an American proxy.

[xerx]

And................ the poor are paying the price, as is usual.

‘Apocalyptic’ food prices will be disastrous for world’s poor, says Bank governor

...

Countries such as Egypt and Tunisia rely heavily on exports of Ukraine’s wheat and cooking oil, and the governor said his concerns about food supplies had been heightened after speaking to Kyiv’s finance minister at last month’s IMF meeting in Washington.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-bank-governor

[xerx]

Retired Russian colonel on Russian state TV; offers rare, pessimistic opinion on Russia's position in Ukraine.

Victory on the battlefield is determined by the high morale of the troops.
....

Sooner or later, reality will hit you on the head so hard, you won't know what hit you.

[Nephilthoth]

Nuclear weapons are beginning to look highly favorable to Putin


Why nukes?





Russia will not win this war going the conventional way.
.
.
.

Don't you think if Putin used nuclear weapons it would cause a nationwide opposition in Russia, even with widespread censorship? The Russian people will only follow Putin so far. For example, there was a point in the Cuban missile crisis where there was a good change that nuclear war was going to break out. What prevented it was opposition on the part of the Russian people, not the better judgement of Russian commanders. So even if Putin and his cadre were foolish enough to go through with nuclear war I think the Russian people would stand in the way.

At the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Soviet patrol submarine B-59 almost launched a nuclear-armed torpedo while under harassment by American naval forces. One of several vessels surrounded by American destroyers near Cuba, B-59 dove to avoid detection and was unable to communicate with Moscow for a number of days.^[14] USS Beale began dropping practice depth charges to signal B-59 to surface; however the captain of the Soviet submarine and its zampolit took these to be real depth charges.^[15] With low batteries affecting the submarine's life support systems and unable to make contact with Moscow, the commander of B-59 feared that war had already begun and ordered the use of a 10-kiloton nuclear torpedo against the American fleet. The zampolit agreed, but the chief of staff of the flotilla (second in command of the flotilla) Vasily Arkhipov refused permission to launch. He convinced the captain to calm down, surface, and make contact with Moscow for new orders.

[rizz]

Some people in Russian govt already are talking about the possibility of capitulation. Weird. But that could mean, Ukraine might stop suffering soon and we will build the new iteration of The Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth. We were joking yesterday, that since Lukashenko has the biggest balls and Zelensky is a very petite dude, we will have King of bulbash as our supreme leader, haha. Everything will be settled in the bathhouse as usual.

[Park]

Posting these videos really didn't age well considering what happened in other places such as Irpin and Bucha.

Bucha was a nightmare, but I'd be careful blaming it on Russia before sufficient evidence is obtained. Did they send forensic pathologists to determine the time and cause of death of all the people who were massacred? Is anyone investigating this? Not saying Russian forces didn't do it, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians (Azov Nazis et al.) staged it. We shall find out, eventually.

Do you recall how Syria was accused of carrying out a chemical weapons attack in Douma in 2018 and dozens of people were filmed dead? Later it was revealed that it was a major cover up and there was no evidence that the Syrian government carried out the attack.

[Park]

Since serious western interference the war has passed the point of manageable complexity, for Putin and everyone else.

This war is now officially a mess, and it will end when it ends.

That is Putin's major mistake, being thrown off by "unforeseen" consequences.

Hmm, not sure if he's being thrown off or just reacting semi-extemporarily as shit piles up. Either way, it's all about weapons ang gas for the US, and together with NATO they will try to drag this out as much as possible, as with any other low-risk high-reward proxy war.

I hope Russia finds a way to end this war sooner rather than later, which might require some bad-ass Ne skills and maneuvering. Which, considering the LSI consensus on Putin's type, might be a long way into the future... especially if stuff like this keeps happening: Finland and Sweden sign off on NATO bids.

[Park]

Rand Paul putting all the democrats to shame, particularly the self-proclaimed anti-war progressives.

I wish Dems had a spine... or just a smidge of character and integrity.

[Adam Strange]

De-Nazification continues with the Nazi National Gene Bank of Plants of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/jane_in_vain/sta...C9hdeZsq8qAAAA

[lynn]

Bucha was a nightmare, but I'd be careful blaming it on Russia before sufficient evidence is obtained. Did they send forensic pathologists to determine the time and cause of death of all the people who were massacred? Is anyone investigating this? Not saying Russian forces didn't do it, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians (Azov Nazis et al.) staged it. We shall find out, eventually.

Do you recall how Syria was accused of carrying out a chemical weapons attack in Douma in 2018 and dozens of people were filmed dead? Later it was revealed that it was a major cover up and there was no evidence that the Syrian government carried out the attack.

Of course, there are investigations going on. It's been in the news from pretty early on after the incident: French forensic experts visiting Bucha to examine the bodies and there are satellite images which prove that there were already dead bodies in the streets before the Russian army retreated from the territory: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/w...ne-bodies.html

[leckysupport]

Either way, it's all about weapons ang gas for the US, and together with NATO they will try to drag this out as much as possible, as with any other low-risk high-reward proxy war.

True, money and resources are involved in Western decisions but we can't diminish the fact that Europeans (the general population and governments) are genuinely terrified. Putin has directly expressed intentions of incorporating former Soviet satellite states into the Russian federation, a few of them are in the EU/NATO. There is a fear that Russian ambitions could destablise the region, bringing back the days of upstarts running around Europe directly or indirectly causing massive amounts of trouble.

[Park]

Of course, there are investigations going on. It's been in the news from pretty early on after the incident: French forensic experts visiting Bucha to examine the bodies and there are satellite images which prove that there were already dead bodies in the streets before the Russian army retreated from the territory: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/w...ne-bodies.html

Yeah, I remember seeing those satellite images in some report. Two problems: (1) not the most credible source (2) might not be sufficient evidence.

It might turn out to be complete bullshit, just like this:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ity-ar-ul.html (courtesy of the same NYTimes investigation team)

Or this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/vi...s-ordeal-video

[Park]

@leckysupport What I find interesting is how submissive the UK and other NATO members are to the US. The US says jump, they says how high. It makes me think they are as much if not more scared of the US/NATO (and what consequences their actions might have on their self-interests) than they are from what Russia might do. Most of what Russia does is in response to Western provocations, anyway. That's where the potential for destabilization comes from. Holding out on NATO's expansion or letting Putin push more oil through that new pipeline wouldn't have destabilized the region. It's Western greed and imperialist ambition that's leading to that.

[ILoveChinchillas]

[xerx]

Ukraine's economy is doing much better than expected, but it is still in bad shape (and going to get worse)—without access to the Black Sea, shipping goods is costlier, more complicated and incomplete. As the war has dragged on, thousands of Ukrainians have been killed, thousands of Ukrainian children have become war orphans, and thousands of young girls have probably been kidnapped and forced into sex slavery.

Ukraine has earned its right to full self-determination. I really do believe that. But given this humanitarian catastrophe (which, for all we know, may continue to drag on for some time), is conceding Ukrainian neutrality (and Russia's annexation of Crimea, autonomy for Donbass, etc.) really the worst possible outcome now? Or, are we intending to fight until the last Ukrainian just to give a bloody nose to our geopolitical rival?

[Poptart]

Ukraine has earned its right to full self-determination. I really do believe that. But given this humanitarian catastrophe (which, for all we know, may continue to drag on for some time), is conceding Ukrainian neutrality (and Russia's annexation of Crimea, autonomy for Donbass, etc.) really the worst possible outcome now? Or, are we intending to fight until the last Ukrainian just to give a bloody nose to our geopolitical rival?

Putin is a menace to humanity. What kind of maniac threatens nuclear war? If Ukraine wants to fight then we should support them. If anything we should be doing more

[Adam Strange]

Ukraine's economy is doing much better than expected, but it is still in bad shape (and going to get worse)—without access to the Black Sea, shipping goods is costlier, more complicated and incomplete. As the war has dragged on, thousands of Ukrainians have been killed, thousands of Ukrainian children have become war orphans, and thousands of young girls have probably been kidnapped and forced into sex slavery.

Ukraine has earned its right to full self-determination. I really do believe that. But given this humanitarian catastrophe (which, for all we know, may continue to drag on for some time), is conceding Ukrainian neutrality (and Russia's annexation of Crimea, autonomy for Donbass, etc.) really the worst possible outcome now? Or, are we intending to fight until the last Ukrainian just to give a bloody nose to our geopolitical rival?

Do you also tell kids in the schoolyard to just accept getting beaten up daily by bullies and they should just give the bullies their lunch money to appease them?

I have no idea why some people think this is a fight primarily between the US and “its geopolitical rival”. If it were, we’d be carpet bombing Moscow. Instead, Biden won’t even give Ukraine long-range missiles for fear of being seen as escalating the conflict.
Russia invaded Ukraine with the intention of stealing their resources and brought with them a death list of 45,000 names and mobile crematoria. This is Ukraine fighting for its life, and we are teaching it to punch back.

[Adam Strange]

Yesterday I was talking to a guy in Missouri who owns a company that does work for Boeing (and my company). I said that some people object to the amount of money that the US government spends on defense.

He laughed and said that those people have never been to some of the countries that we have been to. If they had, they’d want the government to spend more.

[lynn]

Yeah, I remember seeing those satellite images in some report. Two problems: (1) not the most credible source (2) might not be sufficient evidence.

It might turn out to be complete bullshit, just like this:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ity-ar-ul.html (courtesy of the same NYTimes investigation team)

Or this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/vi...s-ordeal-video

There's a difference of what can be staged by one person or a small group of people for a video to post online and the evidence to be found in places such as Bucha right after Russian occupation.

With most people rejecting to acknowledge war crimes happening, I assume it's not because they just think otherwise, but that the truth is that they simply don't care.

[Adam Strange]

Bush II had a hugely destructive effect on America's standing in the world. Here he is, again.

https://twitter.com/michaeldamianw/s...C-7bXeorEqAAAA

Can't make this stuff up.


My opinion: Bush was naive when he ran for president and he listened to the wrong people. About halfway through his tenure in office, he started to suspect that Cheney was not working in his best interests. Now Bush (an ESI) is having moral reconsiderations of his past actions.

Shakespeare wrote two kinds of plays; comedies and tragedies. The tragedies were not the kind where a person is walking down the street and a cornice falls on them.
No. They weren't that type of story at all. Those stories are for children.
Shakespeare's tragedies were stories about how a man's own personal failings led him to destruction.

[SacredKnowing]

Bush II had a hugely destructive effect on America's standing in the world. Here he is, again.

https://twitter.com/michaeldamianw/s...C-7bXeorEqAAAA

Can't make this stuff up.

The U.S. before Bush and the U.S. after Bush are like two different countries. I am very grateful for being old enough to remember what the U.S. was like before him.

[Adam Strange]

The U.S. before Bush and the U.S. after Bush are like two different countries. I am very grateful for being old enough to remember what the U.S. was like before him.

I feel exactly the same way, @Maromi.

I believe that the difference is entirely due to the influence of Fox News.

Fox News must be destroyed.

[xerx]

Putin is a menace to humanity. What kind of maniac threatens nuclear war? If Ukraine wants to fight then we should support them. If anything we should be doing more

Do you also tell kids in the schoolyard to just accept getting beaten up daily by bullies and they should just give the bullies their lunch money to appease them?

I have no idea why some people think this is a fight primarily between the US and “its geopolitical rival”. If it were, we’d be carpet bombing Moscow. Instead, Biden won’t even give Ukraine long-range missiles for fear of being seen as escalating the conflict.
Russia invaded Ukraine with the intention of stealing their resources and brought with them a death list of 45,000 names and mobile crematoria. This is Ukraine fighting for its life, and we are teaching it to punch back.

It is now obvious that Russia isn't strong enough to conquer the rest of eastern Europe. Making minor territorial and diplomatic concessions won't embolden Putin at this point.

As for making him pay the price: It wouldn't matter. Putin may be a menace to humanity, but so is the next silovik that could overthrow him and the one after that. Unless we're prepared and able to occupy Russia (unlikely), demilitarize it and replace its regime with nice, self-effacing, law-abiding, internationalist liberals, it'll just get another bully-in-chief.

Meanwhile, as the war goes on, thousands more Ukrainians will be dying, losing their livelihoods, and being sold into slavery. More than that, millions of people in the third world that depend on Ukrainian wheat (and Russian wheat, which is harder to get as a result of sanctions) would face starvation due to a food shortage and skyrocketing food prices. (https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...od-catastrophe)

[lynn]

(...)
Meanwhile, as the war goes on, thousands more Ukrainians will be dying, losing their livelihoods, and being sold into slavery. More than that, millions of people in the third world that depend on Ukrainian wheat (and Russian wheat, which is off the market as a result of sanctions) would face starvation due to skyrocketing prices (and already are).

I think this will also happen if no one supports Ukraine or Ukraine loses the war.

[xerx]

I think this will also happen if no one supports Ukraine or Ukraine loses the war.

I'm not sure what you mean by 'losing'. If it means annexation into Russia or becoming a Russian puppet, these are unlikely to happen at this point (Russia can't even take Kiev). But if conceding some territory means losing, and if that ends the war, it would also end the loss of life.

This will sound perverse, but guess what: German and French companies need markets and resources, the third world needs food, and we'll be compelled to drop sanctions on Russia within a few years anyway. We already tolerate and have normalized relations with other dictatorships; we have to sketch out a similar modus vivendi with Russia, whether we'd like to or not.

[Poptart]

@xerx if I was in Zelensky’s shoes, I might cede the territory to bring an end to the war because I hate fighting and watching people die. But I’m also SEI, and we’re not exactly known for our leadership skills on the world stage.

[Poptart]

Bush II had a hugely destructive effect on America's standing in the world. Here he is, again.

https://twitter.com/michaeldamianw/s...C-7bXeorEqAAAA

Who knew that his greatest Bushism would come in 2022?