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Thread: The Ukraine Question

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    A Ukrainian LII reporting on the Russian invasion from near Kiev.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7J94rETyyI

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    Just published from a Ukrainian source: ways that Russia is evading sanctions.

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    From the Austrian army channel, Austrian colonel gives superb analysis of the military situation in Donbass. On Ukraine's successful use of artillery (turn on subtitles if you don't understand German).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    A Ukrainian LII reporting on the Russian invasion from near Kiev.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7J94rETyyI
    I appreciate these kinds of perspectives, but it is important to keep in mind, as this is an ongoing situation and active war zone, everything has to be taken with a grain of salt. Including this man. The propensity for propaganda is the highest it has ever been in all previous wars and military campaigns. Whereas in the pre-internet world, it was easier for states to compartmentalize and segregate information -- and even control the flow of information across geographical boundaries -- technology has made this both harder and easier at the same time. We see countries like China paying Westerners to make pro-CCP propaganda, we have to assume the same is possible everywhere, by every side, for every conflict. Especially one that has the attention of the entire developed world. Even if this YouTube creator isn't "compromised" in some way, there has to remain some reasonable doubt in a part of our minds that perhaps they are, or that their information is wrong. Even their "lived experiences" are colored by the bias of their perspective, whether this is an ideological perspective, or just by virtue of the fog of war. The same critical eye must be turned to all news sources, official or unofficial.

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    That logo actually isn't that bad tbh.

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    Sometimes, there are apologists who will make up excuses for the people who cause bad things to happen. They basically say "If only the Tsar knew!" Well, the Tsar not only knows about the problem, he's the one who ordered it.

    I believe these people are called "useful idiots."


    https://twitter.com/mr_gh0stly/statu...CxuZW7hs4qAAAA
    .

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...C90fn7iM0qAAAA
    .

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    That last sentence: Ominous a. f.

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    Putin can keep his war against Ukraine going for a year at the rate he's going through troops. Fortunately for him, almost none of the Russian casualties are from Moscow or St. Petersburg.

    Here is a picture of the men from one of his units fighting in Ukraine.
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/9/7351558/

    If you throw the empire's minority subjects into the meat grinder, then you kill two birds with one stone. Get rid of the lower classes, the ones who cost you money, the ones who don't benefit from the regime. This war is a win-win for the Russian elite.


    When China's rulers decided to kill the protestors in Tiananmin Square in 1989, they brought in army units from outside the Beijing province, so the troops would have no problem killing the local protestors.

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    At 50, every man has the face he deserves.

    https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/...C4pfaQpswqAAAA

    Scholz is 62.

    He looks to me like a lying weasel. Surprising for an SLI, but there you have it.
    Last edited by Adam Strange; 07-25-2022 at 03:58 PM.

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    He's not "Putin the Great". "Putin the Terrible" works better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    He's not "Putin the Great". "Putin the Terrible" works better.
    "Terrible" used to mean "great".

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    I've said before that the j/p difference is the most subtle of the ways to distinguish people, but in relationships, it is a nuclear submarine.

    Very hard to see that it's even there, but it can destroy the world.

    Here is an interesting exposition of the j/p difference, writ large.


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    One of my dearest wishes, one which rarely is granted, is that the people who hold strong beliefs might get to live with the consequences of those beliefs, so it was with some satisfaction that I read the first part of the following tweet:

    https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/...Cw6dXuwdAqAAAA

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    I'm seriously worried about Ukraine losing access to the Black sea, esp. if this war solidifies into a protracted cold war. As long as the Black sea is blockaded by the Russian navy, Ukraine is effectively a landlocked state with much-diminished export capacity.

    Guess it's time to beef up Polish & Romanian ports.
    Last edited by xerx; 06-13-2022 at 08:34 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    I hate this

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    I'm seriously worried about Ukraine losing access to the Black sea, esp. if this war solidifies into a protracted cold war. As long as the Black sea is blockaded by the Russian navy, Ukraine is effectively a landlocked state with much-diminished export capacity.

    Guess it's time to beef up Polish & Romanian ports.
    It's going to be hard to get anyone outside of Europe to care or grasp the significance of this, strategically and economically. Nobody in the West actually cares or even understands the situation, even the ones who claim they do. They care because the media has been making such a fuss about it. The hype is slowly fading, even though the war trudges on. Ukraine was a popular topic that the Western media capitalized on the drama for a short period of time, but the narrative is played out and people are moving on with their lives. Just like Afghanistan faded into the background, just like the average American has no idea about all of the wars we're fighting surreptitiously, or not even really very hidden, just no one is looking behind the curtain and asking what's going on. The posturing and sympathy for Ukraine was and is fake. Although this forum isn't representative of the world at large, the fading popularity of this topic and how it has slowly drifted off course in various ways in this thread alone, is an analog of what's happening in Western society overall.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Capitalist Pig View Post
    It's going to be hard to get anyone outside of Europe to care or grasp the significance of this, strategically and economically. Nobody in the West actually cares or even understands the situation, even the ones who claim they do. They care because the media has been making such a fuss about it. The hype is slowly fading, even though the war trudges on. Ukraine was a popular topic that the Western media capitalized on the drama for a short period of time, but the narrative is played out and people are moving on with their lives. Just like Afghanistan faded into the background, just like the average American has no idea about all of the wars we're fighting surreptitiously, or not even really very hidden, just no one is looking behind the curtain and asking what's going on. The posturing and sympathy for Ukraine was and is fake. Although this forum isn't representative of the world at large, the fading popularity of this topic and how it has slowly drifted off course in various ways in this thread alone, is an analog of what's happening in Western society overall.
    I thought that the sympathy for Ukraine was pretty genuine. In my town, Ukrainian restaurants started getting lots of business. But yeah, it has faded from popular consciousness, and the more losses that Ukraine takes (the Ukrainian army hasn't collapsed, but it's not winning either, and the Russian army is making slow progress in the Donbass), the harder it will be to convince people to keep arming it (especially now that inflation is starting to bite).

    Congress has recently decided to send a massive $40 billion package. But even then, there is still a limit to how much weaponry we can keep sending—not without escalating the conflict into a wider war.

    Russia's economy has so far defied expectations of collapse, and if sanctions were ever meant to stop the invasion, they haven't been working.
    Last edited by xerx; 06-14-2022 at 10:00 PM. Reason: clarification

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poptart View Post
    I hate this
    Just one more depressing thing to come out of Russia lately.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    I thought that the sympathy for Ukraine was pretty genuine. In my town, Ukrainian restaurants started getting lots of business.
    I'm sure people genuinely sympathized with the plight of the Ukrainian people, but it's from a position of ignorance. Not understanding the culture of Ukraine, or realizing that there are segments of the Ukranian population that don't actually mind Russian dominion. Obviously migrants and expatriates have genuine thoughts and feelings on the invasion, but I question to what extent the larger outpouring of support for Ukrainian independence was fed by media hype and anti-Putin sentiments.

    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    But yeah, it has faded from popular consciousness, and the more losses that Ukraine takes (the Ukrainian army hasn't collapsed, but it's not winning either, and the Russian army is making slow progress in the Donbass), the harder it will be to convince people to keep arming it (especially now that inflation is starting to bite).

    Congress has recently decided to send a massive $40 billion package. But even then, there is still a limit to how much weaponry we can keep sending—not without escalating the conflict into a wider war.
    A move that I doubt a majority of Americans would have approved if the package was put to a vote. The economy was already in a downturn, and the war has accelerated many of the negative effects of that downturn.

    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    Russia's economy has so far defied expectations of collapse, and if sanctions were ever meant to stop the invasion, they haven't been working.
    Sanctions never work, and I think they were stupid to put into effect in the first place. Russia is not some small third world dirtball country (though I don't support sanctions on them either), they are large enough to absorb the effects and shift the focus of their regional economies to compensate for their losses. McDonald's pulled out, and a few weeks later, the restaurants are rebranded and open again, serving customers. They will just do what China does and do everything in their own Russkie way. The bottom line is you don't prevent wars by ceasing to be trading partners. Whatever negative consequences the sanctions had were only going to be short-term until the Kremlin pivots, and what bits and pieces of capitalism there are in Russia can fill in the gaps.

    I never understood the point of economic sanctions in any context. It doesn't do the innocent people of the target nation any good when faced with even the most benevolent dictator. Especially because, as we saw in Iraq and Cuba, and presently witness in North Korea, the aristocracy just hoards all the goods for themselves and leaves their worst off citizens to starve.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Capitalist Pig View Post
    or realizing that there are segments of the Ukranian population that don't actually mind Russian dominion.
    I tried to find recent information about this, but I couldn't find very much. Some of the more mainstream sources say that many Russian-speaking Ukrainians turned against Russia following the annexation of Crimea.


    Sanctions never work, and I think they were stupid to put into effect in the first place. Russia is not some small third world dirtball country (though I don't support sanctions on them either), they are large enough to absorb the effects and shift the focus of their regional economies to compensate for their losses. McDonald's pulled out, and a few weeks later, the restaurants are rebranded and open again, serving customers. They will just do what China does and do everything in their own Russkie way. The bottom line is you don't prevent wars by ceasing to be trading partners. Whatever negative consequences the sanctions had were only going to be short-term until the Kremlin pivots, and what bits and pieces of capitalism there are in Russia can fill in the gaps.

    I never understood the point of economic sanctions in any context. It doesn't do the innocent people of the target nation any good when faced with even the most benevolent dictator. Especially because, as we saw in Iraq and Cuba, and presently witness in North Korea, the aristocracy just hoards all the goods for themselves and leaves their worst off citizens to starve.
    Yeah, absolutely. Russia still has intellectual capital, and a massive import substitution drive, including reindustrialization, is easily possible for it. And, yeah, sanctions mostly hurt the people, not the regime.

    One of the harder things to substitute will be semiconductor technologies like microchips, though. The most sophisticated chips are hard to manufacture. It's a very delicate business that requires nanoscale precision (transistors are tiny). Very expensive, highly specialized equipment and engineers are required to assemble them, and only a handful of countries (all of which happen to be American allies) are good at it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    I tried to find recent information about this, but I couldn't find very much. Some of the more mainstream sources say that many Russian-speaking Ukrainians turned against Russia following the annexation of Crimea.
    You couldn't find information about the people Ukraine was bombing for years before the Russian invasion?

    Just out of curiosity, where did you search for this information?

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    Quote Originally Posted by FreelancePoliceman View Post
    You couldn't find information about the people Ukraine was bombing for years before the Russian invasion?

    Just out of curiosity, where did you search for this information?
    Not all Russian speakers are in Donbass. But I'm sure that many Russian-speakers, whether inside or outside the Donbass region, would indeed prefer to live under Russian rule.

    I just used Google search to look for the information. Some mainstream sources (The Economist, CNN, or something like that....) mentioned that Crimea's annexation united Russian-speakers around Ukrainian nationalism & territorial sovereignty. I don't recall any more than that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Capitalist Pig View Post
    I'm sure people genuinely sympathized with the plight of the Ukrainian people, but it's from a position of ignorance. Not understanding the culture of Ukraine, or realizing that there are segments of the Ukranian population that don't actually mind Russian dominion. Obviously migrants and expatriates have genuine thoughts and feelings on the invasion, but I question to what extent the larger outpouring of support for Ukrainian independence was fed by media hype and anti-Putin sentiments. .
    It's going to be hard to get anyone outside of Europe to care or grasp the significance of this, strategically and economically. Nobody in the West actually cares or even understands the situation, even the ones who claim they do.
    What makes you think that you’re less ignorant than the average American? Have you considered that people can understand the situation in Ukraine and disagree with you?

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    Not all Russian speakers are in Donbass. But I'm sure that many Russian-speakers, whether inside or outside the Donbass region, would indeed prefer to live under Russian rule.

    I just used Google search to look for the information. Some mainstream sources (The Economist, CNN, or something like that....) mentioned that Crimea's annexation united Russian-speakers around Ukrainian nationalism & territorial sovereignty. I don't recall any more than that.
    There are indeed many people who would like to live under Russian rule, and some of them live in the Donbas.

    Maybe, after Russia is expelled from Ukraine, the West could maintain Russia as it presently is, but sanctioned. We could also ship all the MAGA people there. There are many people who will never be comfortable in a liberal democracy, so why force them to live here?
    They'd have to give up their guns, though.


    When my sisters and I were fighting as kids, my mother would step in and would say, "I wish I could put you kids in a room and let you kill each other. Then I'd shoot the one who comes out."

    Which probably explains a lot about me, but I've always thought that letting people play out their impulses with others of their kind was a kind of perfect justice.
    I would LOVE LOVE LOVE to have people live in the kind of world that their philosophies logically lead to.

  27. #947
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    There are indeed many people who would like to live under Russian rule, and some of them live in the Donbas.

    Maybe, after Russia is expelled from Ukraine, the West could maintain Russia as it presently is, but sanctioned. We could also ship all the MAGA people there. There are many people who will never be comfortable in a liberal democracy, so why force them to live here?
    They'd have to give up their guns, though.
    If they want to hold a rifle, they can join the Russian army.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    If they want to hold a rifle, they can join the Russian army.
    Good point.

    Now, why aren't they? What is it about actually living under an immediately available Authoritarian regime that turns them off? I really can't comprehend this, since they want to turn this country into an Authoritarian paradise.

    Maybe they think they'll be the ones on top in this country. When they get rid of the liberals.

    This is exactly why I think it's so funny that all of the Russian sympathizers living in the Donbas and anxiously awaiting the Russian Mir get handed a rifle by the invaders as soon as they take a town and pushed to the front, only to die in a day or two.

    Man, it's perfect.

    The Ukrainians say that the invaders have lost about 30,000 soldiers since they invaded, but Russia says they've lost only about 10,000. But Russia doesn't count the conscripts from the provinces as "Russians", and they never will. So they are both right.


    Imperial invader to Authoritarian conscript: "You will die for me, and then your widow and children will become my servants."
    Authoritarian conscript: "Oh, thank you, great and powerful lord. We need your firm hand at the helm. May I lick your powerful boots first?"
    Last edited by Adam Strange; 06-16-2022 at 01:16 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    Russia says they've lost only about 10,000. But Russia doesn't count the conscripts from the provinces as "Russians", and they never will.
    Even that low estimate is nearly as high as Soviet losses in Afghanistan, in a war that lasted nine years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    One of my dearest wishes, one which rarely is granted, is that the people who hold strong beliefs might get to live with the consequences of those beliefs, so it was with some satisfaction that I read the first part of the following tweet:

    https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/...Cw6dXuwdAqAAAA
    Or as H.L. Mencken put it: "Democracy is the theory that the people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard". He is also, funnily enough, popularly thought of as an ILI (his ardent and damn near fanatical admiration of Nietzche speaks to this fact as well).

    I do (personally) absolutely adore his "utopian flight" of how any and all political office holders who just so happen to get assassinated likely have it coming and we should all welcome such a world. The assassin in this "utopia" is tried not on the grounds of whether or not they personally actually killed the fucker but, rather, whether the fucker they allegedly terminated deserved it!

    That is, it is not "malum in se" to kill a politician. The real question is, instead, whether or not that given politician had it coming. If they did the assassin not only walks but gets a heartfelt pat on the back. If not the assassin gets unceremoniously killed for being the equivalent of a dumbass wokie. I won't spell out the case in point but, well, who is really dumb enough to essentially charge a well organized and coordinated security detail?

    Wokies that's who. Probably just clinched the very ruling they sought to prevent from being handed down being handed down because we're not dealing with idiots on this front. Cave here because of that, and you cement the perception in everyone's minds that "violence" works. Yeah, bad. Worst case scenario bad. Final and top rung of the Escalation Ladder getting used bad.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xerx View Post
    Even that low estimate is nearly as high as Soviet losses in Afghanistan, in a war that lasted nine years.
    Oil was cheaper then. I think the West needs to increase its support for Ukraine.

    I also think that the West needs to economically isolate Russia. It won’t end the war, but it will make it harder to keep it going in the long run.

    Some people might say that Russia will just develop substitutes for Western goods, but I don’t believe this will happen. Many of the things made in the West are so complex and so intertwined with other industries that you could give Russia a product and they still wouldn't be able to duplicate it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSVHp6CAyQ8
    Furthermore, many business systems require entrepreneurs to make them work effectively, and very few entrepreneurs are going to help create a business which will be stolen from them.

    And theft is the heart and soul of the present Russian Federation.

    Russia has shown that it can win wars against medieval level societies, but I think it’s going the North Korea route now. That’s its only option, and it is an appropriate reward for its present behavior.
    Last edited by Adam Strange; 06-16-2022 at 04:40 AM.

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    Biden: U.S. to build silos on Poland border to export Ukrainian grain

    https://politi.co/3tEvAYF

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    Life in the Russian Sphere of Influence. In this case, the Donetsk People's Republic.

    https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status...47442547269632

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    Oil was cheaper then. I think the West needs to increase its support for Ukraine.

    I also think that the West needs to economically isolate Russia. It won’t end the war, but it will make it harder to keep it going in the long run.

    Some people might say that Russia will just develop substitutes for Western goods, but I don’t believe this will happen. Many of the things made in the West are so complex and so intertwined with other industries that you could give Russia a product and they still wouldn't be able to duplicate it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSVHp6CAyQ8
    Furthermore, many business systems require entrepreneurs to make them work effectively, and very few entrepreneurs are going to help create a business which will be stolen from them.

    And theft is the heart and soul of the present Russian Federation.

    Russia has shown that it can win wars against medieval level societies, but I think it’s going the North Korea route now. That’s its only option, and it is an appropriate reward for its present behavior.
    That's the thing. The PTB went so hard and were so successful in their subversion and demoralization of the "West" that it is now biting them in the ass so hard I can only laugh. If the "Mammon Mob" had remained overwhelming superior up to now than your plan would actually be feasible. The tools and means to actually isolate Russia in the way you would like would still be within your/the West's grasp.

    Too bad for them the "Death Cult" superseded them thanks to things like ESG investing (i.e. turning Mammon Mob logic against itself) and that had a de facto effect of allowing the Death Cultists to dictate terms to Mammon Mobsters. "Get Woke Go Broke" is but a pure cope because entities like Blackrock have 10 trillion dollars worth of disposable income to invest in businesses that are all about Diversity, Inclusivity, and Equality over, well, actually doing their stated fucking job!!!!

    Yet even that Market Making level of capital has its limits and we are about to hit them. Again, Mammon worshippers may be proven correct and their ideas and plans proven optimal in hindsight, but hindsight is 20/20 and that came at the cost of their foresight.

    Remember, Sin makes you stupid. While the Mammon mob may sin slightly less hard than the Death Cult they both sin and thus the end result is reached by both. Idiots. Blithering Idiots. Thank the Almighty as well for if that was not the case dystopia is our ultimate fate. Thankfully it is not .

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    “Everything is possible and nothing is true”
    - typical gullible cynic/ useful idiot

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poptart View Post
    “Everything is possible and nothing is true”
    - typical gullible cynic/ useful idiot
    Yes, that monstrously outrageous guile and cunning at the edge of death excite and motivate us to look further and push harder are always moments of sun and noon.
    Raptor had to lose in 2006 to become Revan, important errands of knighthood and valor to walk with Pokemon and charm the melodies of sweet channels to lush frenzy galloping solo yet swiftly into the sunrise for maximum presents and signed in deluxe oceans of fast trading cards bazooka cascading rumba of love Force constellations restoring last battle cardinal plants actively swirling for juice and petals to wishes
    https://www.the16types.info/vbulleti...k-2024-edition

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poptart View Post
    “Everything is possible and nothing is true”
    - typical gullible cynic/ useful idiot
    I believe that Trump used this approach in his campaign to destroy people's faith in any objective truth. It made his constant lying less contradictable.

    It should be the motto of internet trolls, and a trip-wire for normal people that indicates that you've run across a truly toxic situation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    I believe that Trump used this approach in his campaign to destroy people's faith in any objective truth. It made his constant lying less contradictable.

    It should be the motto of internet trolls, and a trip-wire for normal people that indicates that you've run across a truly toxic situation.
    I'd argue it was an attack on the public's faith in their institutions. Institutions he was, I'd argue, absolutely right to attack as they are now and have been for many a year actively hostile towards the class of people they are supposed to engineer an advantageous situation.

    When dealing with the "American" government you ought to act as though it can and will at all times try to engineer a situation where "Americans" get a better deal than you do if you are a foreign power. That's where the "Art of the Deal" comes in. I mean let's admit a pretty hardcore truth. The best deals are where the deal broker successfully convinced both sides they somehow got one over on their opponent. Persuasion is superior to manipulation in almost all cases. Persuading/Seducing both sides into believing they got one over on the other party is an optimal outcome. If at the end of the day the math ends up in your ​favor so much the better .

    I digress however. Trump never tried to distract from objective truth, he just pointed out subjective points that undermined the narrative the PTB were pushing. He's still doing it right now. Hell, the only reason he's not dead (nor any of his directly related family I'd add) is because there is now no way you could tell literally half the population of the USA (and the majority of the world's population if I'm being honest) that some Gamma Ray Burst/Micro Meteoroid Swarm/Etc. event that kills him wasn't somehow engineered by the likes of the WEF and the Bilderberg Group.

    There is now no room for the PTB in the minds of the brainless normies to maneuver. I mean fucking hell, people used to view Alex Jones as an outright nutjob. Now, after almost everything he ranted on about in the 90's has been proven true objectively... Yeah, there's that...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    I believe that Trump used this approach in his campaign to destroy people's faith in any objective truth. It made his constant lying less contradictable.

    It should be the motto of internet trolls, and a trip-wire for normal people that indicates that you've run across a truly toxic situation.
    “Mass propaganda discovered that its audience was ready at all times to believe the worst, no matter how absurd, and did not particularly object to being deceived because it held every statement to be a lie anyhow. The totalitarian mass leaders based their propaganda on the correct psychological assumption that, under such conditions, one could make people believe the most fantastic statements one day, and trust if the next day they were given irrefutable proof of their falsehood, they would take refuge in cynicism; instead of deserting the leaders who had lied to them, they would protest that they had known all along the statement was a lie and would admire the leaders for their superior tactical cleverness.”

    - The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poptart View Post
    What makes you think that you’re less ignorant than the average American? Have you considered that people can understand the situation in Ukraine and disagree with you?
    You mean, have I thought about the fact people have different opinions? Sure, the thought has crossed my mind, that there is always someone out there smarter than me.

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