The Ukraine Question

[Adam Strange]

@xerx if I was in Zelensky’s shoes, I might cede the territory to bring an end to the war because I hate fighting and watching people die. But I’m also SEI, and we’re not exactly known for our leadership skills on the world stage.

I think that Zelensky is EII.

If I were in his shoes, I'd just keep wearing away the Russian forces for a couple of months until the new Ukrainian recruits can be trained, then I'd cut off the rail lines inside Russia which resupply the invaders, make a push to cut a corridor to the border through the Russians in the East Ukraine so they can't leave and they can't be resupplied, and then I'd wait a week for the remaining Russians to start getting hungry and think about their probable future, and then I'd start attacking with artillery followed by tanks covered by infantry.
I'd tell Putin that he can have his troops back in exchange for all the territory that Russia ever took from Ukraine, plus the people that Russia has sent to remote locations, plus reparations. But Ukraine will be filtering the Russian troops for war criminals before they are allowed to leave.
Otherwise, all the troops will be converted to sunflowers.

But that's just my fantasy. I'm sure that the professionals have something better planned.

And this is exactly why I should not be in politics.

[Poptart]

I think that Zelensky is EII.

If I were in his shoes, I'd just keep wearing away the Russian forces for a couple of months until the new Ukrainian recruits can be trained, then I'd cut off the rail lines inside Russia which resupply the invaders, make a push to cut a corridor to the border through the Russians in the East Ukraine, and then I'd wait a week for the remaining Russians to start getting hungry and think about their probable future, and then I'd start attacking with artillery followed by tanks covered by infantry.
I'd tell Putin that he can have his troops back in exchange for all the territory that Russia ever took from Ukraine, plus the people that Russia has sent to remote locations, plus reparations. But Ukraine will be filtering the Russian troops for war criminals before they are allowed to leave.

But that's just my fantasy. I'm sure that the professionals have something better planned.

Zelensky EII? That’s a new one. I think he’s SEE.

Okay if I was in Zelensky’s shoes I would resign and hand over power to Zelensky because I actually have no interest in being President

[Adam Strange]

Zelensky EII? That’s a new one. I think he’s SEE.

Okay if I was in Zelensky’s shoes I would resign and hand over power to Zelensky because I actually have no interest in being President

Me, too, really. He's doing a great job on his own.

Postscript.

I do think Zelensky is EII. Some of these male EIIs have real backbone, and they certainly have a moral compass. I also think his wife is ESI, and I've seen a lot of EII-ESI pairs.
I think a SEE would bluster on about how great he was, while Zelensky just asks for more help. Just like an EII would.
Zelensky also doesn't seem like he's all that comfortable in his body, the way an Se-dom would be. He seems to actually be oblivious to Se, especially with respect to the comment he made when Russians were closing in on Kiev and had targeted him with death squads. He just said "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition". But his Fi-moral compass seems quite strong.

[lynn]

I'm not sure what you mean by 'losing'. If it means annexation into Russia or becoming a Russian puppet, these are unlikely to happen at this point (Russia can't even take Kiev). But if conceding some territory means losing, and if that ends the war, it would also end the loss of life.

This will sound perverse, but guess what: German and French companies need markets and resources, the third world needs food, and we'll be compelled to drop sanctions on Russia within a few years anyway. We already tolerate and have normalized relations with other dictatorships; we have to sketch out a similar modus vivendi with Russia, whether we'd like to or not.

The problem is that the people living in the Ukraine are against the Russian occupation. They will continue to defend themselves nonetheless, just without Western support. So, the plundering, killing, raping, deporting and forced re-education of people through the Russian army, whose military presence will be required years to come, will go on even if there are no missile attacks going hitting the occupied areas. If they scare the population into submission, it will just go on behind closed doors. There will be no peace, just no one stopping them.

[xerx]

The problem is that the people living in the Ukraine are against the Russian occupation. They will continue to defend themselves nonetheless, just without Western support. So, the plundering, killing, raping, deporting and forced re-education of people through the Russian army, whose military presence will be required years to come, will go on even if there are no missile attacks going hitting the occupied areas. If they scare the population into submission, it will just go on behind closed doors. There will be no peace, just no one stopping them.

If someone showed me a realistic roadmap for forcing Russia to retreat, I'd be fully on board. I'm serious.

But, as it stands, forcing the Russians to retreat means going on the offensive, which means attacking dug-in defenders that would be fighting for their lives (a reversal of the current situation in which Russia is the attacker). I'm not saying that Ukraine can't win, but as badly devastated as the Russian army has been, so has the Ukrainian army.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but it all just seems like pie-in-the-sky / wishful thinking.

[xerx]

@xerx if I was in Zelensky’s shoes, I might cede the territory to bring an end to the war because I hate fighting and watching people die. But I’m also SEI, and we’re not exactly known for our leadership skills on the world stage.

I think that you'd be a cool world leader.

[Park]

[Adam Strange]

The US stock market is down this week, but it's nothing compared to the problems that Russia is experiencing.

Three facts about #Russia's federal budget in #April:
- Oil&gas made up 63% of revenue.
- National defense almost doubled vs previous months (627bn vs 351bn).
- VAT fell to ONE THIRD of previous months, despite high inflation. (192bn vs 573bn).

This looks catastrophic for #Russia's economy. If the VAT number is any indication for consumption (it usually is), the crisis will be much deeper than most forecasts predict.*

https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1...C9lbiQ4rYqAAAA



*This is what happens to a country when IKEA leaves. There's nothing left to buy in the shops, so the people stop spending.
Those Russian invaders in Ukraine are just going to have to loot harder, that's all there is to it.

[xerx]

*This is what happens to a country when IKEA leaves. There's nothing left to buy in the shops, so the people stop spending.

For retail and services, how hard would it be for a native Russian company to take over from exiting firms? It's possible that I'm being naive, but it doesn't seem difficult as the staff and mid-level management are already trained to do their jobs. (This is already happening to McDonald's: https://www.theguardian.com/business...d-rebrand-them).

Russia is mostly self-sufficient when it comes to food (https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analy...ucceeding.html). It also has a high-tech sector that could potentially replace Amazon, cloud service providers, anti-virus software providers, etc.

OTOH, WRT the import of finished, high-tech products like assorted semiconductor technology... then yeah, Russia is in a difficult situation.

Luckily for Russia, the Geneva convention forbids sanctions on the export of vital medicine.

[Adam Strange]

For retail and services, how hard would it be for a native Russian company to take over from exiting firms? It's possible that I'm being naive, but it doesn't seem difficult as the staff and mid-level management are already trained to do their jobs. (This is already happening to McDonald's: https://www.theguardian.com/business...d-rebrand-them).

Russia is mostly self-sufficient when it comes to food (https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analy...ucceeding.html). It also has a high-tech sector that could potentially replace Amazon, cloud service providers, anti-virus software providers, etc.

OTOH, WRT the import of finished, high-tech products like assorted semiconductor technology... then yeah, Russia is in a difficult situation.

Luckily for Russia, the Geneva convention forbids sanctions on the export of vital medicine.

Normally, it is pretty easy to step into a fully functional, profitable business and run it, especially if the employees and managers are already trained. In the States, the biggest problem the new manager will encounter is his own ignorance and ego, either of which can destroy a business in a fairly short time.

This would be true in Russia, too, but to this, you’d have to add the near certainty of corruption which permeates every part of Russian society. Corruption is normal there. In most cases, corruption is the point. There are no large, private businesses in Russia because, as soon as a business gets large enough, state elites steal it from the owners.
A native Russian (who is living in the States now) told me that everyone still in Russia is lazy, corrupt, or stupid, because it is easier to steal than it is to work hard.

In an environment like that, why would anyone work hard? If you had the means, you’d leave the country as soon as you could. Exactly like what the oligarchs do with their families. The bread-earner (or hunter-gatherer exploiter) might have to stay in Russia, but they buy a house in the West and send their kids to Western schools.

The fact that Russia is a mafia gives you everything you need to know about life in Russia and Russia's probable future.

[Adam Strange]

I work with a number of Russian immigrants who are all hard-working and brilliant. In many cases, they brought their families with them to live in the States. Not one of them talks about going back to Russia. It is very rare that they speak of Russia at all. It’s almost as if they were all from very traumatized families.

Let’s say you own a kennel for breeding dogs. Every week, you give your dogs an intelligence test and you remove the dogs which are the smartest.
In addition, you don’t give the dogs enough food, so there is competition among them for the basic necessities of life.
Then, you provide an escape route from this hell that you have created, which can only be navigated by the hardest-working individuals. These are allowed to escape.

What will your kennel look like in a few generations?

[leckysupport]

Russians appear to be gaining serious battle experience while taking huge losses.

The soldiers who survive the war (given their efforts aren't suppressed) will have the capability to rebuild the Russian army many times stronger than it was pre-war.

Western militaries should go a spending frenzy. There is a good chance that the long peace is over.

[Adam Strange]

The Russian Gas Station Mafia army is attacking a Ukrainian solar power station.

https://twitter.com/MakichyanA/statu...Cz8efqr8AqAAAA

Because, of course, solar power is Nazi.

[Capitalist Pig]

Ukraine is a Slavic issue. If it can be shown to me why Ukranian independence matters to the USA, I'll say okay, let's support them, but on the down low like it has historically been handled. Stop saying shit out loud and pissing off the Bear. For one, Biden couldn't intimidate a fucking toddler; secondly, the VP is a dumb fucking child who can't be taken seriously; and third, Putin may have less political experience than Biden, but his KGB background makes him way more threatening of a world leader compared to the resumes of prominent Western heads of state. I'm not fanboying for Putin, I'm just over here questioning if the average American really gives a fuck about Ukraine while they're paying over $4/gal at the pump, with projections of $5 and even $6 per gallon by August at the present rate. I don't think they care much for it at all. I know I don't.

[Adam Strange]

On Russian state TV, they discuss not only what it would take to destroy the United States, but also how many Ukrainians have to be massacred. One lawmaker came up with a figure: 2 million. No one in the studio blinked or objected—including the host, who is himself a Duma member.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...01883628986368


Online tankies: Russia is simply responding to NATO expansion because Washington won't meet Moscow's reasonable requests!
IRL Russian Defense Official: We're an empire and we consume territories and peoples by force. Always have, always will. Problem?

https://twitter.com/willdizard/statu...C4ofaVmsEqAAAA
.

[Lycantrope]

Don't you think if Putin used nuclear weapons it would cause a nationwide opposition in Russia

Not really, it's just that nuclear weapon is a waste at a moment like this. It's like trying to use a shotgun to kill a cockroach

[Adam Strange]

Not really, it's just that nuclear weapon is a waste at a moment like this. It's like trying to use a shotgun to kill a cockroach

I once read that the virtue of nuclear weapons is that they are cheap for their destructive power. Instead of weeks and months of bombing raids carried out by waves and waves of B-52's (cf. Vietnam or Dresden), you only need a few ICBMs and maybe three or four bombs per city, and no one has figured out how to defend against ICBMs yet.

The Russian Mafia only exists in strength in two cities; Moscow and St. Petersburg. Almost none of the present Russian casualties are coming from either of those cities. The elite prefer to fight until the last provincial is dead, not themselves. So, you could just take out two cities and let the rest of the territories go their own way, ending Russia as a federation and a threat to civilized countries.

I'm not suggesting this course of action. I'm merely saying that nuclear weapons are cheap for their destructive power.

One thing I should add is that most people in the world (correctly) believe that Americans are both violent and crazy. They are well aware that the only country which has used nuclear weapons in a war was the US.

[Lycantrope]

So, you could just take out two cities and let the rest of the territories go their own way

Well that's kinda psychopathic, not much good would come out of it. This isn't like the end of WW2 where us just went "hey let's test our new toy, see how much damage it does"

The Russian Mafia only exists in strength in two cities; Moscow and St. Petersburg

Wait, are you talking about the actual Russian Mafia or are you calling the russian government and army "the russian mafia"?

[End]

@Adam Strange I wonder how you'd feel if a nuke got dropped on the WEF while they discuss the virtues of us evil plebs being forced to eat bugs and the like. I for one will not eat the bugs nor live in the pod.

Also yes, we Americans are both violent and crazy. In all the right ways I'd argue. You want innovation? A "fresh" perspective more likely than not to actually be just that? You ask an American. Preferably/most likely an American who is stereotypically labeled a "redneck" or something close to it. He is in all likelihood "dumber" than you. Yet that's exactly the perspective you need to win the long game...

[xerx]

The Russian Mafia only exists in strength in two cities; Moscow and St. Petersburg. Almost none of the present Russian casualties are coming from either of those cities. The elite prefer to fight until the last provincial is dead, not themselves. So, you could just take out two cities and let the rest of the territories go their own way, ending Russia as a federation and a threat to civilized countries.

Russia's provincial minorities deserve the most sympathy. They shoulder so much burden only to be treated as second class citizens in their own country, enduring all kinds of racial and religious discrimination.

Would breaking Russia up really allow them to chart the prosperous future that they deserve? Maybe, I don't know. But my sense is that these new statelets would only become chess pieces in yet another great power struggle (between China, the United States, Japan and Turkey, perhaps) and never allowed to establish independent, transparent and democratic governments.

[Adam Strange]

@Adam Strange I wonder how you'd feel if a nuke got dropped on the WEF while they discuss the virtues of us evil plebs being forced to eat bugs and the like. I for one will not eat the bugs nor live in the pod.

Also yes, we Americans are both violent and crazy. In all the right ways I'd argue. You want innovation? A "fresh" perspective more likely than not to actually be just that? You ask an American. Preferably/most likely an American who is stereotypically labeled a "redneck" or something close to it. He is in all likelihood "dumber" than you. Yet that's exactly the perspective you need to win the long game...

What would I call a nuked WEF? I'd call that a start.

Most of those guys are parasites.

[Adam Strange]

Russia's provincial minorities deserve the most sympathy. They shoulder so much burden only to be treated as second class citizens in their own country, enduring all kinds of racial and religious discrimination.

Would breaking Russia up really allow them to chart the prosperous future that they deserve? Maybe, I don't know. But my sense is that these new statelets would only become chess pieces in yet another great power struggle (between China, the United States, Japan and Turkey, perhaps) and never allowed to establish independent, transparent and democratic governments.

The provincials have been trained to accept their servility, but I don't think servility is inevitable once the Russian autocratic empire falls. Ukraine used to be pretty autocratic before they got help from the West. The individual republics, or whatever they call themselves, could also take this path.

I doubt if they will ever have the prosperous future that they deserve, but that's mainly because none of us will have the prosperous future that we deserve. Not for fifty years or so, anyway. Not until we've made the transition to renewables or nuclear power and the world population starts to come down. Personally, I expect that global warming will displace huge numbers of people from their homes towards the first world, with some major wars along the way to reduce that population, before we reach a new, more prosperous equilibrium.

Some of the break-away nations could make deals with China or India or other players. That would probably be a good thing. I'm pretty sure that the US doesn't give a rat's ass what happens to them, since there aren't any resources there other than hydrocarbons, which we should outlaw, or minerals, which are needed by advanced nations in only small quantities. Nope. I think they'd be left to their own devices.

India is probably not inclined to build an empire on the ashes of the Russian Federation, and China probably has too many of it's own problems to deal with before it tries to incorporate some vast tracts of very cold pine trees. It already has cities which are empty.

[Adam Strange]

If I were a European leader, I'd incorporate Ukraine into Europe so fast it would make your head spin. Ukraine has vast fields of food, and Europe can't feed itself. I'd be building railroads straight from Berlin to Kiev.

Ukraine also has oil and gas, but no one should be burning hydrocarbons anytime soon, so food will have to be reason enough.

[leckysupport]

Ukraine is a Slavic issue.

If this was western European issue would you care more?

[xerx]

Ukraine's going to need 100's of billions of dollars for its reconstruction. The Whitehouse is debating whether or not to confiscate frozen Russian assets (~$300 billion) and give them to Ukraine. It would be a powerful gesture, but it is debatably illegal under American law, and some argue that it could make other countries hesitant to store their reserves in dollars.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/u...nk-assets.html

[Adam Strange]

Ukraine's going to need 100's of billions of dollars for its reconstruction. The Whitehouse is debating whether or not to confiscate frozen Russian assets (~$300 billion) and give them to Ukraine. It would be a powerful gesture, but it is debatably illegal under American law, and some argue that it could make other countries hesitant to store their reserves in dollars.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/u...nk-assets.html

My understanding is that seizing assets violates due process laws in the US, which is why both the most conservative and the most liberal senators were against it.

For different reasons, though.

[Capitalist Pig]

If this was western European issue would you care more?

I understand the pressure it puts on Europe to have Ukraine under Russia's thumb again, but the countries that matter are already NATO partners (though Turkey seems vulnerable). Are you suggesting Putin will initiate an open war with NATO? What, exactly, does Russia accomplish having Ukraine that justifies the USA sending billions of our tax dollars over there, while we are in an economic meltdown, with little to zero oversight or predetermined ROI? We're on the cusp of hyperinflation, then recession, but everything is fine, right? This is good for the American people?

[xerx]

After this war is over, we need to seriously get our act together.

Above all, we need to quickly and ruthlessly transition to green energy. That means investment in renewable energy and the more efficient use of energy (by adding insulation to buildings, and so on). We need to go on an investment spree in the third world, building mines and the necessary logistics to diversify our suppliers of commodities. Never again should we be held hostage by the likes of Putin.

[Adam Strange]

France has nuclear power stations which have never had an accident. Germany, under the influence of the Green Party, closed it's nuclear power plants and made a policy to not use nuclear energy.

It turns out that Germany's Green Party was heavily funded by Putin.

It also turns out that Germany's former chancellor, Gerhardt Schroeder, was until recently on the board of directors of Russia's Oil company Rosneft, where he was paid almost $1M/year for his services.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-germa.../31860377.html

Politicians are so cheap nowadays, in terms of what their "work" will buy for you. And there seems to be no downside to them for working in the interests of a foreign country.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz has been talking and talking about the need to supply Ukraine with weapons, but so far, he seems to be dragging his feet.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61604329

Scholz can talk the talk, but he seems not to be walking the walk. I'd call him "not the kind of guy you ever want to rely on".
In fact, I'd say that he's waiting to see how it all turns out before he picks a side.

[xerx]

Germany... closed it's nuclear power plants and made a policy to not use nuclear energy.

Finland may be in the process of solving the radioactive waste issue:

In a matter of months, the machines inside this boxy gray building will begin a weekly routine that will continue for a century: placing highly radioactive gray cuboid rods into copper cylinders the length of a Lincoln Town Car. From there, the canisters will travel roughly two hours underground to crypts meant to keep the spent-fuel rods undisturbed for millennia in bedrock that geologists say hasn’t shifted in almost 2 billion years. Sealed twice over in bentonite clay ― which expands when wet, preventing water from seeping in and corroding the capsules, and offers stability in case of an earthquake ― this site is meant to entomb nuclear waste for as close to eternity as any human endeavor can guarantee.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/finla...b09c32edf7be5a

[The Reality Denialist]

Finland may be in the process of solving the radioactive waste issue:



https://www.huffpost.com/entry/finla...b09c32edf7be5a

Yes, Onkalo project works on a premise: we can not handle it - so let it handle itself.



I type originator of that plan as LIE.

[Capitalist Pig]

Nuclear energy is clean energy.

[Not A Communist Shill]

A move toward nuclear energy will be too late to prevent the worst effects of increases in anthropogenic global warming, it produces waste that will have to be dealt with for thousands of years to come as far as we can foresee, and countries use it as a way of hiding their development of nuclear weapons. If it could limit increase in anthropogenic global warming in time, I would probably be in favour of it.

[Adam Strange]

An SLI Ukrainian soldier reporting from somewhere near Kiev.

Let me just say, SLIs look harmless but they are actually lethal.



This guy has a channel on YouTube which is quite entertaining.

[Adam Strange]

Russia should export this instead of oil. I'd pay for it, but then, I always have had a Republican/Fascist streak in me.

I mean, I'm aware of it. I fight against it. But it definitely exists.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...94891173855232

[Anonymous]

I have deliberately refrained from commenting on the Ukrainian war on but I just want to say one thing and leave it at that.


National sovereignty under capitalism is nothing more than a phantom . The Ukrainian fighters are not dying for Ukraine, they are dying for American capital. The Russian fighters are not dying for Russia, they are dying for Russian capital.


For the working person it makes no difference which administrative body is ruling over them.


Putin is not innocent, that's for certain. But you think that dog Zelensky is? He is making Ukrainians fight in a war they in reality have no interest in fighting for and put in their head the false consciousness that they are fighting 'freedom for Ukraine' when they are in reality fighting for freedom for western capital. Wretched disgusting politician. I have by chance, not been born a Ukrainian. I would have put him down by now worse than JFK. I am already in possession of the necessary armaments to do so.


I'm also not a fan of the anti-war protestors either. They remind of those stupid fucking hippies when America was at war with Vietnam. Doing protests, singing songs, and smoking pot- while American planes were firebombing Vietnamese people and American boys were being shot dead in rat ditches. It's just a bunch of self-congratulatory retards trying to feel good about themselves while men are out there fighting and getting killed. If you don't like your government, overthrow it. All else is cowardice.


I've considered going to the war zone to see it for myself. I've went on some Russian speaking forums and expressed my opinion and was immediately met with hostility from everyone. I take it I'm not wanted then so I'll shut the fuck up and mind my own business. It is clear that I am not invited.


Overall I find the war and both parties utterly disgusting. I can't help as feel though I'm wrong morally for not intervening.


Back when there were still MEN on this earth they would go out into the field in war and deal with their problems with themselves. Not destroy people who are not involved.


And to those of you who can muster up the balls to call ME a coward for not following up on MY THREAT against Zelensky's character . Look, I don't have Ukranian problems on my lawn. I am already a dissident in my own country and busy enough with that as it is. So I'm sorry I don't have the energy to participate in this thing which I have deliberately avoided hearing propaganda from. I have went on Russian speaking forums but it seems as though I cannot provide any help, and no one has asked me to. I do not go to places where I am not wanted.

All politicians are criminals.

I meant no offense to anyone in this thread.

[Capitalist Pig]

So, wait, the Azov Battalion is a neo-Nazi faction? Thanks for the confirmation of Russian "propaganda," leftist media! I'm sure all the "pro-Ukrainian independence" champions in this thread will just gloss over this, and say surely it must be a mistake, or it has some alternative, not-neo-Nazi meaning. Or maybe even the line about how you can't judge a nation by a few bad apples. Sure, okay, whatever, these excuses only work when you want them to.

[Poptart]

Russia should export this instead of oil. I'd pay for it, but then, I always have had a Republican/Fascist streak in me.

I mean, I'm aware of it. I fight against it. But it definitely exists.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...94891173855232

It’s giving Annie vibes

[RBRS]

So, wait, the Azov Battalion is a neo-Nazi faction? Thanks for the confirmation of Russian "propaganda," leftist media! I'm sure all the "pro-Ukrainian independence" champions in this thread will just gloss over this, and say surely it must be a mistake, or it has some alternative, not-neo-Nazi meaning. Or maybe even the line about how you can't judge a nation by a few bad apples. Sure, okay, whatever, these excuses only work when you want them to.

AZOV is on Israel's payroll. You can guess the rest.

[xerx]

The Azov battalion's infiltration of Ukrainian society has been known about for some time. Ukraine wasn't exactly a bastion of enlightened multiculturalism before the war.

The battalion has even succeeded in reaching and radicalizing Westerners (via a strong social media presence), and Western neo-Nazis have even travelled to Azov training camps. MSM outlets used to print highly critical stories about Azov's social media penetration. (https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1350428277610065925)

(Obviously, in no way does this justify Russia's invasion. H!tler became a war criminal after invading neighbouring countries that, even by contemporary standards, had governments that were atrociously anti-Semitic. More than that, Russia itself isn't exactly a greater bastion of human rights than Ukraine.)

After this war is over, Azov will have gained a lot of weapons and a lot of experience. And even if they do constitute a small minority within Ukraine's body politic, it is often energetic and well-organized minorities that effect change. Those are the people who get things done.

My fear is that we're seeing the creation of our own Al-Qaeda, which was also the creation of a proxy war, masterminded by Western establishments (by notable people like Zbigniew Brzezinski), and cynically exploited to bleed an enemy dry in an eerily similar fashion to how this war is being waged.