I read the thread. I agree that Putin is a manipulative opportunist who doesn't give a sh*t about international law. I agree that his diplomatic overtures are, at best, a calculated ruse intended to lull his target into complacency.
But, what struck out is Russia's comparison to Nazi Germany, which always comes tacked-on with the premise that it can be defeated, occupied, and Westernized into a liberal democracy.
A better comparison is the German Empire, which was badly defeated in WW1, adopted one of the world's most liberal constitutions, and replaced its militaristic monarchy with a democracy. Culturally and politically, this new Germany was at the height of contemporary Western civilization. As it turned out, that democracy was also fertile ground for a certain breed of rabble-rousing, ultra right-wing populism.
Nazi Germany was firebombed into unconditional surrender, fully militarily occupied, and transformed into a submissive protectorate of the United States. But unless someone shows me a realistic roadmap, I don't get the impression that we can do this with Russia. All I'm seeing are thought experiments, as though real life was a college class on moral philosophy, and we were debating whether or not to push the "Democracy Button".
Last edited by xerx; 03-18-2022 at 07:06 AM. Reason: .
That whole video was a fake created by Ukrainian media to emotionally hype up everyone living in Europe and the US. By reading the responses above, it seems to have been working.
From France24: As gunfire was erupting in this northeastern district of Kyiv, many English- and French-speaking accounts claimed that these images showed a Russian tank deliberately running over a civilian. But there is no evidence to support this. On the contrary, there are several indications that it is a Ukrainian Stela-10 missile launcher.
https://observers.france24.com/en/eu...ilian-car-kyiv
They use these images on TV because they know us civilians know jack shit in how to recognize them. Russians didn't even take Ky on March 3rd when this video was posted and it's, let's say, highly improbable they've taken a whole city with a single missile launcher.
The news you've been watching in the west have been lying to you.
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Russia should be careful that China doesnt invade its borders when their country starts to implode I think. With all Russia's natural resources and a lack of good allies it makes it an option for China to launch a "peacekeeping operation" that way, whileat the same time taking over Russia's natural resources. Either this or they start buying their resources for cheap.
Last edited by Karbonkel; 03-18-2022 at 05:16 PM.
.The Soviet Union exploited its fraternal connections with Czechoslovakia during the 1968 invasion to undermine Czechoslovak readiness for such an attack and minimize resistance from the Czechoslovak military and population. Prior to the invasion, Soviet officials underscored the bonds between the two countries.
In its 4 July 1968 letter to the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia (CPCz) Presidium, the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) Politburo (1968b: 198) claimed that ‘Soviet [C]ommunists, and all the Soviet people, will always stand shoulder to shoulder with their Czechoslovak brothers’. Soviet premier Alexei Kosygin reinforced this sentiment at a press conference nine days later, stating that ‘[o]ur country and our party have long marched in struggle and friendship side by side with the Czechoslovak people and the [CPCz]’ (Dawisha 1984: 200). As a result, the Czechoslovak leadership largely failed to predict or prepare for the forthcoming invasion. First Secretary Alexander Dubček (1993: 128, 178) later wrote that at no point before 20 August 1968 did he believe that the invasion would happen; he considered a Soviet military operation ‘simply unthinkable’ because ‘[i]t ran contrary to my deepest idea of the value system I thought governed the relationships between socialist countries’. He also claimed that when Anton Tazky, the secretary of the Slovak Communist Party Central Committee, saw the invading tanks, he remarked that they must be part of a film shoot; he could not fathom that a Warsaw Pact invasion was underway (Dubček 1993: 173). The Czechoslovak People’s Army (CzPA) consisted of 175,000 troops, but because the government did not consider an invasion from the east a possibility, they were all oriented towards NATO on its western borders (Windsor and Roberts 1969: 112).
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If German Nazis haven't invaded the entirety of Europe, then USSR wouldn't have to respond to the European aggression.The Soviet Union exploited its fraternal connections with Czechoslovakia during the 1968 invasion to undermine Czechoslovak readiness for such an attack and minimize resistance from the Czechoslovak military and population. Prior to the invasion, Soviet officials underscored the bonds between the two countries.
In its 4 July 1968 letter to the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia (CPCz) Presidium, the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) Politburo (1968b: 198) claimed that ‘Soviet [C]ommunists, and all the Soviet people, will always stand shoulder to shoulder with their Czechoslovak brothers’. Soviet premier Alexei Kosygin reinforced this sentiment at a press conference nine days later, stating that ‘[o]ur country and our party have long marched in struggle and friendship side by side with the Czechoslovak people and the [CPCz]’ (Dawisha 1984: 200). As a result, the Czechoslovak leadership largely failed to predict or prepare for the forthcoming invasion. First Secretary Alexander Dubček (1993: 128, 178) later wrote that at no point before 20 August 1968 did he believe that the invasion would happen; he considered a Soviet military operation ‘simply unthinkable’ because ‘[i]t ran contrary to my deepest idea of the value system I thought governed the relationships between socialist countries’. He also claimed that when Anton Tazky, the secretary of the Slovak Communist Party Central Committee, saw the invading tanks, he remarked that they must be part of a film shoot; he could not fathom that a Warsaw Pact invasion was underway (Dubček 1993: 173). The Czechoslovak People’s Army (CzPA) consisted of 175,000 troops, but because the government did not consider an invasion from the east a possibility, they were all oriented towards NATO on its western borders (Windsor and Roberts 1969: 112).
And if Nato hasn't expanded, we wouldn't be stuck in the midst of US-sponsored European lies.
This is like like history repeating itself all over again.
More footage of general wreckage and savagery inflicted by the russians. Why do you think the Ukrainians are close to 2 million refugees and millions more internally displaced, because they're running away from a film set? Since you're so into fakes, please explain how in 2018 Russia accused Georgia of running bio-labs, in 2020 they accused Kazakhstan of the same and now Ukraine is the victim of the same playbook. Those are fakes.
Well, they might dislike Zelensky all they want but that's not the point here nor is it a factor in their patriotism and resistance, so tell that to someone that cares.
Sicuramente cercherai il significato di questo.
Give the guy a break, he's just an actor who inadvertently found himself playing a role in a movie with an unexpectedly difficult plot twist.
Realistically speaking, he's been cornered from all sides (NATO, Azov/Neo-Nazis and Russia) and most politicians would act the same way in his place. The self-aggrandizing and self-preservation aspects are just par for the course. He's basically a tool with his hands tied, playing safe and to his own advantage as much as he can, letting the war play out as it will.
No surprise there. They've done the same with Russiagate and US-led wars. I guess people are easy to manipulate. Not so much as when mainstream media used to be the only/main source of news, but it's still quite bad. It's going to take time for people in the west to realize what's actually happening, as things like the sanctions and the potential collapse of the petrodollar (https://markets.businessinsider.com/...es-deal-2022-3) begin to affect them personally and they start asking real questions. There is always going to be a fraction of the population that remains ignorant, and those people will just keep drinking whatever kool aid the propaganda machine is selling. I think this is also a problem of education, as the ability to put things in proper context and know how to filter and interpret the news is directly proportional to people's knowledge of social studies and their aptitude for learning and critical thinking.
Last edited by Park; 03-21-2022 at 11:57 AM.
“Whether we fall by ambition, blood, or lust, like diamonds we are cut with our own dust.”
Originally Posted by Gilly
https://understandingwar.org/backgro...sment-march-19
"
We now assess that the initial Russian campaign to seize Ukraine’s capital and major cities and force regime change has failed;
Russian forces continue efforts to restore momentum to this culminated campaign, but those efforts will likely also fail;
Russian troops will continue trying to advance to within effective artillery range of the center of Kyiv, but prospects for their success are unclear;
The war will likely descend into a phase of bloody stalemate that could last for weeks or months;
Russia will expand efforts to bombard Ukrainian civilians in order to break Ukrainians’ will to continue fighting (at which the Russians will likely fail);
The most dangerous current Russian advance is from Kherson north toward Kryvyi Rih in an effort to isolate Zaporizhiya and Dnipro from the west. Russian forces are unlikely to be able to surround or take Kryvyi Rih in the coming days, and may not be able to do so at all without massing much larger forces for the effort than they now have available on that axis;
The Russians appear to have abandoned plans to attack Odesa at least in the near term.
"
Welp, now it'll just be a question of how effectively Ukraine will be able to push back in the case of a stalemate. The re-capture of Kherson and breaking the siege of Mariupol are probably the two big things which Ukraine is going to have to do if momentum really starts to go it's way, but until then this war is just gonna be hell.
What do Russians think of Putin?
ESI at 17:03, SLE at 18:18.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HAmzPeDoE3Q
It's funny watching Americans defending Ukraine's right to decide its own foreign policy. Because, I assure you, none of the United States' neighbours are allowed to have a fully independent foreign policy of their own.
Even recently, the United States forced Canada to detain an important Chinese businesswoman. It caused a diplomatic spat between China and Canada, one in which China retaliated by imprisoning Canadian citizens (on bogus charges) and sanctioning Canadian imports. Canada was used as fodder in order to advance American foreign policy interests (the businesswoman was skirting American sanctions on Iran, sanctions which Canada doesn't even recognize). The Canadian court found no cause for extradition in the end, but damage was done.
If Mexico or Canada participated in Chinese wargames off the coast of California; allowed China to use their bases; and left NORAD, weakening American nuclear security in the process; would the United States not go a little ballistic (both figuratively and literally)? Like NATO, imagine that this alliance also provides intelligence-sharing and cybersecurity integration (don't think for a moment that the United States doesn't deploy cyber attacks).
Training with China means using the same hardware, which means buying Chinese-made weapons, trucks, cars, bullet-proof vests, and aircraft instead of American. And if that meant losing X million American manufacturing jobs, I'd wonder whether even Bernie Sanders would rediscover the Monroe Doctrine.
Ukraine has earned its independence; of that there's absolutely no question. And even if it loses, the Ukrainian struggle will be remembered and glorified for a very long time. Russia has done a very, very bad thing. But it'd be nice if Americans showed a little more introspection before criticizing Russia for wanting its own sphere of influence.
Let’s say that you have neighbors who have sex in public and collect the heads of mailmen and delivery drivers who walk onto their property. (Actual practice of ancient Roman allied tribes.) Of course, these guys have the right to self-determination, but some practices should be discouraged.
I certainly realize that US policy is not even-handed. But I believe it is an improvement over the policies of most countries. Usually. Although at age 20, I did want to overthrow the government of the United States by force and violence.
Some practices should be discouraged, though.
In May of 1823, one John Nash of Bristol led his wife, whom he had placed in a halter, to the town marketplace, where he sold her to a young man for six pennies. The new owner then took her away.
This was perfectly legal, although some parts of society looked down upon the practice of men selling their family members in the town marketplace. Prudes and busybodies, perhaps.
So in 1885, England made a law which made it illegal to sell or kidnap a girl into prostitution if she was under the age of sixteen. Girls older than sixteen were still fair game, though.
Little by little, we progress.
Last edited by Adam Strange; 03-20-2022 at 05:02 AM.
I wasn’t offended. America has a lot to answer for.
My defense of US foreign policy is not at all based on moral arguments, because it is indefensible in moral terms.
No, my defense of US policy is entirely based on the practical view that America is less bad than most, and that it’s influence has generally been more good than bad. In my opinion.
Latest poll by Rating Group in Ukraine:
https://ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine/Belief in victory remains at its highest level: 93% of the respondents believe that Ukraine will be able to repel Russia's attack. Confidence in victory prevails in all the regions of the country.
Half (47%) of respondents hope that Ukraine will be able to win the war with Russia over the next few weeks. A quarter (23%) believe that the war will last several months. Only 12% think that the war will end in six months or more. There are almost no people who do not believe in victory at all. 17% were not able to answer this question.
The vast majority of the respondents (82%) consider the threat of the country being split unlikely. This confidence has increased significantly due to the public cohesion during the war.
At the same time, signing a temporary truce with Russia without withdrawing its troops from Ukraine is viewed as unacceptable by Ukrainians (89%).
Sicuramente cercherai il significato di questo.
Come to think of it, Russian equipment quality, operational competence, logistics, lack of corruption, morale, and sobriety have always been uneven at best. That didn't stop them from winning WW2.
Whether sanctions end up achieving Washington's objectives remains to be seen, but it is worth noting that Russia has always been a poor country. It was poor when it defeated H!tler and Napoleon.
For an alternate view, read this: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...47886908424195
A counter-argument, from the same guy: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...76859741904898
One random report: https://twitter.com/markito0171/stat...36178394488835
Last edited by Adam Strange; 03-21-2022 at 11:54 PM.
"Russian equipment quality, operational competence, logistics, lack of corruption, morale, and sobriety have always been uneven at best. That didn't stop them from winning WW2."
They had a home turf advantage initially, and when they raided Germany the Germans were surrounded on all fronts... it's not really comparable to the Ukraine situation. The West can continue to fund Ukranians with high tech weapons for quite a long time, and probably will, it's going to be very hard to keep a sustained military presence in Ukraine. And if they don't have some sustained presence... how do they keep a government in place? And if they can't do that... what is their objective? All they can do is level things and then leave, and I don't see what they gain from the doing that.
Zelensky announces ban on 11 Ukrainian political parties with ties to Russia
Well done, Zelensky. This is your shittiest, most self-defeating, move so far.
“Whether we fall by ambition, blood, or lust, like diamonds we are cut with our own dust.”
Originally Posted by Gilly
Tell me your deepest thoughts about your dictator who has poisoned politicians in opposition, put protestors in a jail, probably conducted numerous false flag operations against the citizens, started an insane war and made nuclear threats. You should not worry as we are only going to post the video for international consumption your face and voice in it.
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https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...85616834457619
Demographics are fucking Russia over
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1506265327973376009
Possible encirclement of Russian forces north west of Kyiv
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/sta...06447116718085
Some guy nerding out about trucks
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...russia/627121/
Russia is losing
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1505995831681458177
"Accidently" published article by a pro-Kremlin publication claiming 9861 deaths of Russian forces.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...21-p5a6n6.html
On Mariupol
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/21/p...war/index.html
"Wait, who's in charge here?"
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1505649722408767498
Ukraine has managed to take more equipment than it has lost, (if only based on video/image evidence)
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...why-it-matters
And finally, the ISW.
Those are some of the most notable threads/articles from around the past day. Enjoy!
I told my husband what you said here about your experiences and conclusion (including that you're an engineer who contracts with the govt. making military things). He sat quietly for a moment thinking, then said, "Yes, I absolutely agree," and didn't expound or qualify at all. Which is saying something for a Te lead.
Oh, to find you in dreams - mixing prior, analog, and never-beens... facts slip and turn and change with little lucidity. except the strong, permeating reality of emotion.
When I talk to LSEs, a kind of door opens in the air between our heads and a huge amount of Te information flows back and forth without any impedance.
I was in South Africa during apartheid, which many people thought might be a lawless, scary place. A passenger plane flying in from Europe had just been shot down when it crossed a neighboring country. Several of the countries bordering S. Africa were sending armed young men across the border to kill whites. I was there to sell the South Africans machine tools which they could use to make weapons.
The head of the local organization and I were being driven down the road by his driver in a big Mercedes sedan, and we were passed at high speed by a Jaguar. We were out in the middle of nowhere, with tall yellow grass, punctuated by occasional trees, stretching out to the horizon.
A few seconds after the Jag flew past us, we could see, far down the road, a black guy in khakis run out of the bush onto the road in front of the Jag and raise his hand towards his head. The Jag hit the brakes and pulled over to the side of the road.
"That guy's in trouble", the rep said.
"Why is that?", I asked.
"He was speeding, and that policeman caught him." We flew past them. The policeman was alone, on foot. The Jag wasn't forced to stop.
"Here, because we are under an oil embargo, speeding is a national offense. It is considered to be "intentionally wasting national resources.""
The guy driving the Jag stopped because it was the law and because he believed in the law.
Last edited by Adam Strange; 03-22-2022 at 08:20 PM.
Yeah, right. Pretend you care about democracy and represent all Ukrainians while mirroring your opponent's autocratic tactics, ostracizing political opponents which incidentally (or not?) happen to be mostly left wing parties. You wouldn't dare to call out and ban the Azov Battalion or any of the fascist formations, would you? But yeah, fuck all Ukrainians who identify as ethnic Russians, they don't need representation... And where is the evidence of spying performed by these 11 entities? Was each party caught independently? Was it a joint effort?
Last edited by Park; 03-22-2022 at 09:47 PM.
“Whether we fall by ambition, blood, or lust, like diamonds we are cut with our own dust.”
Originally Posted by Gilly