
Originally Posted by
End
There's a funny thing about all those that can be summed up by something pretty much any military historian worth a damn will tell you: "Children study tactics. Men study logistics."
The rebel army will start with de facto control of the countryside. Which immediately makes anything regarding logistics "fun" for the side holed up in the cities and the coastline. Furthermore, those things are highly complex machines that need equally complex logistical systems to keep them fueled up, full of ammo, and in a state of good repair. Yes, those things give the "loyalist" (I use that term ironically) army a significant edge... for about a week. The more complex a system, the easier it is to disrupt. Plus the people I mentioned also happen to be the people in charge of repairing and maintaining those war machines. If they think they're about to be used on "their" side I'd bet a case of sabotage is about to happen. Then there's theft to worry about. I don't think those F-16's and whatnot come equipped with a remote self-destruct system or emergency override codes that the top brass can turn to if a particular asset decides to give command the finger and just go fuck off with the thing. Hell, in an all volunteer force, the installation or existence of such things would keep most from ever signing up. (Plus, y'know, if the enemy ever got their hands on those things you're pretty much fucked so yeah, best to actually not have them at all).
Point is, unless they intend to simply glass the country side with nukes and/or carpet bomb it back to the stone age they will quickly be reduced to fighting with small arms and infantry unsupported by air, naval, and armored assets against the side that also happens to grow all the food. I mean, you could import from other nations, but that gets expensive really quick and nothing tanks an economy quite like a good ol' Civil War. A civil war that, unlike last time, has no real moral impetus behind it in regards to the "loyalist" faction. Fighting to end slavery is a cause worth fighting family members and dying for. Fighting to keep those damned "privileged" proles in line, in the union, and paying their taxes a central government many view as illegitimate, well, I don't think the history books would lionize such a casus belli and nobody (except sociopaths) likes to be the obvious jack booted thug (i.e. the baddies) without a moral rationalization to cover for it.
The "rebels" however, have the very American "fighting to overthrow a tyrannical government that won't allow them to be represented" moral cause to back them up. That gives them a huge morale advantage right off the bat. Folly it is to disregard troop morale in regards to determining the outcome of a conflict.