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  1. #241
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    The Spanish Flu of 1918-20: Health and Macroeconomic Effects

    http://conversableeconomist.blogspot...ealth-and.html

    Recommended government policy response to COVID-19:

    http://conversableeconomist.blogspot...d-for-few.html

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    I'll be sure to cast my vote against Dummy Trump on election day...see my thread. By February 06 the research clearly showed rapid transmission among asymptomatic patients.

    https://www.the16types.info/vbulleti...very-low!-quot

    Yet by February 26th, Trump appears entirely out of touch with reality -- passing up leadership at a time of War to empty shelled Mike Pence and brushing off the risk of infection to Americans as very low. Now, nearly 20,000 positives later, he calls himself a "wartime president." I agree this is war, which begs the question wtf kind of wartime president responds to the enemy's declaration of war by ceding the reins over to a VP.

    Three possibilities for Trump's willful omission of reality and complete breakdown in leadership ability: 1) Dummy Trump either didn't do his homework because he's incompetent; 2) dummy trump did his homework but chose to deny the findings without basis because, well, he's incompetent; or 3) dummy trump did his homework, chose to accept the findings and just outright lied to the American people. Either way you cut it, his instincts are horrible.

    Trump's "chinavirus" language is an attempt to bait the media into shifting the discussion over to where it started, but where COVID-19 started becomes a moot issue on February 6 in terms of Trump's failure to act. The publicly available study on February 06, 2020 supercedes China as the causal agent of Trump's incompetence, because from February 6th on, Trump still had enough to time to start doing what he waited all the way until mid-march to do.

    Human beings are generally consistent....because this is an issue of Trump's own failure of mental toughness the same incompetency and horrible instincts is bound to repeat in the next four years...I've certainly never been a Trump hater, but pretty much stuck here while the economy is going to shit in a scenario that never had to occur if Trump was in touch with reality....some things are just unforgivable!

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    Quote Originally Posted by onfireee View Post
    the reaction to coronavirus parallels election time hysteria

    funny times we live in
    I wonder if this will affect the votes, considering Biden's supporters are mostly the elderly.


    Last edited by Asenath; 03-22-2020 at 12:56 AM.
    'The charm of knowledge would be small if so much shame did not have to be overcome on the road to it.'

    - Friedrich Nietzsche

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    Dummy trump prolonged the duration of this pandemic here in the states through both his willful failure to act sooner and outright misleading statement that the risk remained very low and all was under control (thereby giving people no reason to refrain from close interactions and crowded places)...None of this will make the nation stronger at the end of the day-- but only broker, sicker and deader. So pick up a pitchfork and make dummy trump pay for it on election day. This degree of incompetence is completely unforgivable. Dummy Trump is on the verge of bankrupting the country like he bankrupted his businesses!

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    So, many people I know (most, perhaps, discounting retirees) have lost their jobs because of the virus. A few more have taken pay cuts. It's not as if I'm qualified to predict major economic events, but I don't see how we aren't going to see a depression. Most people only have, at best, a few months' worth of expenses saved. It's not really possible to get a job with these conditions, and states' unemployment systems are seeing record spikes in applicants (will states even be able to pay unemployment to such great numbers of people?). Money will vanish quickly, mostly into the hands of landlords and banks. If the virus runs its course in a few months, then at the end of it, who will have the money to buy goods as before?

    If there's something I'm not considering, I'd love for someone to tell me. But it seems to me now that there will be a depression.

    Incidentally. American insurance companies don't have the cash to cover every one of their customers who will be infected. They're going to demand bailouts, if they haven't already behind closed doors. Imagine the outcry. The one good outcome of this situation might be enough public pressure that universal healthcare finally gets implemented.
    I was a Democratic caucus. Have you ever been to a caucus? No you haven't. You're a lying dog-faced pony soldier.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kill4Me View Post
    Dummy trump prolonged the duration of this pandemic here in the states through both his willful failure to act sooner and outright misleading statement that the risk remained very low and all was under control (thereby giving people no reason to refrain from close interactions and crowded places)...None of this will make the nation stronger at the end of the day-- but only broker, sicker and deader. So pick up a pitchfork and make dummy trump pay for it on election day. This degree of incompetence is completely unforgivable. Dummy Trump is on the verge of bankrupting the country like he bankrupted his businesses!
    Joe Biden has dementia, and while I'm not sure about Trump's mental condition, it seems better than Biden's; also, Trump at the least is concerned enough by his image that he has some motivation to do what's popular. He might genuinely be the better choice between the two.
    I was a Democratic caucus. Have you ever been to a caucus? No you haven't. You're a lying dog-faced pony soldier.

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    The Trump administration has made America #1 in the world.

    https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020...-response.html

    Just because there are a lot of people who are being forced out of their workplaces does not mean that a depression is inevitable. Clearly, when the banks committed massive fraud under the umbrella of the Bush administration and went completely bust in 2008, no one in banking lost their jobs or went hungry.

    There are a number of actions that the administration can take to head off the financial problems that the involuntarily unemployed will see.

    https://cepr.net/quick-note-on-stimu...d-the-economy/

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/u...-analysis.html

    Will the Trump administration take any of these actions? We shall see. The key questions to ask are,
    1.) Will any of these actions inadvertently benefit Black Americans, and
    2.) Will any of these actions cost the 1% any money, in any way, shape, or form?

    Remember, Universal Health Care will allow the government to set doctor's salaries. And doctors make up much of the 1%.

    Based on the administration's past track record on everything they have tried to do to date (Mexico still hasn't paid for that wall, and where is that "insurance for everybody" and his "phenomenal health care plan"? Same place as Trump Airlines, Trump Steaks, and Trump Vodka*), I'd say that a lot of people are going to have to move back in with their parents. Assuming their parents haven't contracted the COVID-19 virus, that is.




    *The CATO Institute is one of the most conservative voices in Washington, regularly advocating policies which benefit ultra-wealthy conservatives, and they are not impressed by Mr. Trump's performance. https://www.cato.org/publications/co...marred-failure

    Business Insider is not exactly your most socialist publication, but they have been keeping track of Trump's accomplishments and this is what they have to say: https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...impeachment-11
    Last edited by Adam Strange; 03-22-2020 at 03:52 AM.

  9. #249
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    As president, dummy trump had a duty to stay informed about COVID-19. If he had fulfilled that duty he would have known by February 09-10 about the research on Coronavirus that had been published on February 9, 2020.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....06.20020974v1

    The research clearly shows that once COVID-19 hits US Soil, it will rapidly spread from human to human and that this rapid transmission is metastaized by the fact transmission can occur through asymptomatic carriers. The term "super spreader" was first introduced. At that point, what China failed to do is moot in so far as Trump's incompetence goes, because now the information about rapid transmission among asymptomatic patients is publicly available.

    If Trump was doing his job, he would have taken action on or shortly thereafter February 9, 2020. Trump's incompetence is multi-fold: 1) he failed at that point to warn the American public to start social distancing and avoid large gatherings; 2) he didn't shut any borders down; 3) he didn't initiate a largescale travel ban until March, and 4) as late as February 26, 2020, he ignorantly misled the public by telling them that the risk to americans was very low.

    Telling the American Public that the risk was very low encouraged the American public to still congregate and socialize in crowded places and in close proximity to one another. Failure to warn, failure to act, and outright misrepresentation = total incompetence.

    If Biden had any brains, he would have that February 9 study linked on his website with the conclusions about rapid transmission and asymptomatic patients highlighted and bolded. HE would also have staffers professionally seek out testimonials from COVID-19 patients (active and recovering) who believe that their coronavirus infection was caused by a reliance upon Trump's ignorant claim that the risk was very low

    By the way, you can watch all the media talking heads who are critical of Trump. Nobody right now in the mainstream is making a stronger case of Trump's mishandling of this as I am or even seeing half of these angles as I am. Mark my words, I"m the first one to see many of these angles, including the comparison between his bankrupting of his businesses with his likely bankrupting of the country. I didn't put together a 2500+ only valid breakdown for every type wing and stack for nothing.
    Last edited by Kill4Me; 03-22-2020 at 01:10 PM.

  10. #250
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    Quote Originally Posted by FreelancePoliceman View Post
    So, many people I know (most, perhaps, discounting retirees) have lost their jobs because of the virus. A few more have taken pay cuts. It's not as if I'm qualified to predict major economic events, but I don't see how we aren't going to see a depression. Most people only have, at best, a few months' worth of expenses saved. It's not really possible to get a job with these conditions, and states' unemployment systems are seeing record spikes in applicants (will states even be able to pay unemployment to such great numbers of people?). Money will vanish quickly, mostly into the hands of landlords and banks. If the virus runs its course in a few months, then at the end of it, who will have the money to buy goods as before?

    If there's something I'm not considering, I'd love for someone to tell me. But it seems to me now that there will be a depression.

    Incidentally. American insurance companies don't have the cash to cover every one of their customers who will be infected. They're going to demand bailouts, if they haven't already behind closed doors. Imagine the outcry. The one good outcome of this situation might be enough public pressure that universal healthcare finally gets implemented.
    There will be a depression. We won't have a vaccine for 18 months unless something fortuitous happens. Lockdowns will continue for longer than we expect.

  11. #251
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    Dummy Trump Jr. (aka Mr. Uptight) trying to deflect from dummy daddy's incompetence:

    Donald Trump Jr. on Twitter: "WHO Spread False Chinese Government Propaganda: Coronavirus Not Contagious Among Humans https://t.co/Wf0NpA9o7t"

    Whatever the Chinese Government or WHO said or did after February 9th is irrelevant.

    The ominous findings were right there for dummy Trump, dummy trump jr., empty-shell Pence, walking corpse carson, and the team of so-called experts to review.

    Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China | medRxiv

    "Conclusions: The 2019-nCoV epidemic spreads rapidly by human-to-human transmission. Normal radiologic findings are present among some patients with 2019-nCoV infection. "

    "These findings echo the latest reports, including the outbreak of a family cluster,4 transmission from an asymptomatic patient,6 and the three-phase outbreak patterns.8 Our study cannot preclude the presence of patients who have been termed “super-spreaders.”"

  12. #252
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    k4M even ahead of Biden's Curve. he writes today on twitter:

    In January, Donald Trump claimed the coronavirus was “totally under control.”

    In February, he said it would disappear.

    Now, he’s saying it “could’ve been stopped pretty easily if we had known.”

    Donald Trump knew. He failed to act. And now we’re paying the price.
    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1242240964288286721

    I already had that entire angle down. I publsihed it on this forum.

    I told you I did not put together the only valid breakdown for eveyr type wing and stack for nothing. It gives me a great deal of insight.

    also my so/sp antennae for the political jugular is faster and sharper than his sp/so antennae...

    now watch, everybody who follows Biden will start repeating that attack right into the general election. You heard it here from me first.

    Biden still hasn't figured out that there's a failure to warn and a misrepresentation ("the risk remains very low") contained in that attack.

  13. #253
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    China probably isn't finished with it yet. I really can't imagine them not having a second wave since asymptomatic carriers are a primary path of transmission. This thing is like stopping the wind. I'm not sure if it's possible. China will certainly be a great way to follow if it actually works, I'm incredibly skeptical it will though. This may literally continue for 12-18 months until enough of the population has gotten infected or we find a vaccine. Flattening the curve will probably only prolong cases, not getting rid of them entirely. This does keep hospital workloads down. We'll probably get to the point where we are like "ah cases are going down ... social distancing is working" , then we're going to get hit by a giant right hook.
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    These ppl don't even frear Coronavirus.






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    ^explains why Germany has almost no deaths : )

    China's not the only country lying, Germany is without a doubt too (apparently they can't count the tests they make...?!) but UAE, Spain, Turkey, Russia, Japan, they're all hiding/falsifying data. not nice, world.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ooo View Post
    ^explains why Germany has almost no deaths : )

    China's not the only country lying, Germany is without a doubt too (apparently they can't count the tests they make...?!) but UAE, Spain, Turkey, Russia, Japan, they're all hiding/falsifying data. not nice, world.
    I heard the reason Germany's death rate is so low is because they are devoting all their ICUs to people with the virus. They are now using 27,000 ICUs out of 28,000 total now however and the death rate is thus set to climb rapidly if infections continue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hitta View Post
    China probably isn't finished with it yet. I really can't imagine them not having a second wave since asymptomatic carriers are a primary path of transmission.
    I agree. Additionally, I'm skeptical of recent reports stating that China has zero confirmed cases because I believe China has a history of media control and censorship.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ooo View Post
    ^explains why Germany has almost no deaths : )

    China's not the only country lying, Germany is without a doubt too (apparently they can't count the tests they make...?!) but UAE, Spain, Turkey, Russia, Japan, they're all hiding/falsifying data. not nice, world.
    UAE has two deaths as of last week. Also, the community spread has started, some idiot who got tested and was asked to remain in self quarantine until the results come back managed to infect at least 17 people.

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    China, Italy, and Coronavirus: Geopolitics and Propaganda
    FEATURES | DIPLOMACY | EAST ASIA
    China, Italy, and Coronavirus: Geopolitics and Propaganda
    In Italy, China is no longer thought of as the origin of COVID-19, but as a friend in a time of dire need.

    By Theresa Fallon
    March 20, 2020
    China, Italy, and Coronavirus: Geopolitics and Propaganda
    Medics and paramedics from China salute as the board a Red Cross vehicle upon arrival at the Malpensa airport of Milan, March 18, 2020.

    Credit: AP Photo/Antonio Calanni
    Italy has been an alluring geopolitical prize throughout the ages because of its strategic location in the middle of the Mediterranean, its wealth, and the useful skills of its people. Now it’s the turn of today’s rising power, China, to seek to extend its influence there.

    Last year, Italy signed a Memorandum of Understanding with China on participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Italy was the first and so far the only G-7 country to do so. Laboring under many years of economic stagnation, Italy hoped to bring about a much-needed stimulus to growth thanks to business with China. The move was sneered at by Italy’s Western allies and was also contentious domestically, with one part of the government coalition of the time (Matteo Salvini’s right-wing Lega) opposing it. At the end of the day, however signing the MoU did not bring Italy more contracts from China compared to other countries that had not done so — for instance, France.

    Fast-forward to March 2020. Italy is in the grip of the coronavirus crisis. As of March 20, the disease has killed more than 3,400 Italians – more than the death toll registered in China, where the pandemic began in late 2019. At the beginning of March, Italy asked for help from its European Union partners though the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. No EU member state responded. In addition, France and Germany imposed a ban on the export of face masks. Many Italians feel deceived and humiliated by their European partners.

    Beijing, however, responded bilaterally and promptly airlifted 30 tons of medical supplies to Rome. Italy’s Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio posted a video of the arrival of the supply-laden aircraft on his Facebook page. It was an information and public diplomacy triumph for China — when Italy needed help, Europe dithered while the PRC was portrayed as Italy’s savior. Germany subsequently pledged to provide face masks to Italy, but it was too late. The simple narrative in social media had already been shaped: the European Union deserted Italy and China saved the day. Di Maio took credit for China’s help, which he linked to his China policy and to his phone call with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi on March 10, two days before the delivery of supplies from China.

    In reality the supplies had been sent by agreement between the Chinese and the Italian Red Cross. As is customary between branches of the Red Cross in different countries, the Chinese Red Cross reciprocated for the help received from the Italian Red Cross only one month earlier, when Italy sent 18 tons of supplies to Wuhan. The call between Di Maio and Wang Yi concerned not the Red Cross donation, but the purchase by Italy of a large quantity of much-needed ventilators (artificial respiratory devices) for intensive care units. Several European countries were competing with each other to receive this equipment first, and Di Maio pleaded with Wang Yi to put Italy at the top of the list. The ventilators have not yet been delivered to date.

    Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.

    The Chinese propaganda machine was quick to seize the opportunity and posted videos of grateful Italians praising China for its generosity. One video even showed Italians singing China’s national anthem from their balconies (it was, however, a fake). These videos have Chinese subtitles and were probably made with a Chinese audience in mind. It has been reported that the inhabitants of Wuhan refused to express their gratitude to China’s leader Xi Jinping for handling the crisis successfully; now at least the authorities could show that they had worked well abroad and that foreigners were grateful.

    In addition to the first shipment of medical supplies, which landed in Rome on March 12, China also sent a second shipment to Milan on March 18. This was sent by Chinese provinces including Zhejiang, which has a large immigrant community in Italy. Other donations by Chinese companies went to Italian regions and towns that host their Italian counterparts.

    One of the companies in question is ZTE, which donated 2,000 face masks to the city of L’Aquila in central Italy, where ZTE runs a joint 5G innovation and technology center with the local university. In addition, Huawei offered to set up a cloud computing network to connect Italian hospitals among themselves and with hospitals in Wuhan — which raises serious issues for the control of critical infrastructure and data protection.
    https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/chin...nd-propaganda/

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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy View Post
    I heard the reason Germany's death rate is so low is because they are devoting all their ICUs to people with the virus. They are now using 27,000 ICUs out of 28,000 total now however and the death rate is thus set to climb rapidly if infections continue.
    yeah, the problem with Germany is that there's no official data (really?! it makes no sense in such a technological country..), but now it's fundamental to have that trusted data, we can't deal with this monster with lies. I doubt Germany is devoted to the extent you say to fighting this, up to last week it had taken no restrictive measures to prevent Covid, my fb friends were in Germany touring around.. and this alone says something.

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    Quote Originally Posted by COOL AND MANLY View Post
    UAE has two deaths as of last week. Also, the community spread has started, some idiot who got tested and was asked to remain in self quarantine until the results come back managed to infect at least 17 people.
    the amount of tests in UAE is the same as last week (=125.000 tests appeared from thin air in a day), yet 10 days later the contagions grew and the tests didn't change.

    all the countries with rounded numbers are suspicious, Russia, Iran, Spain... also it's counterproductive to test the entire population in one day, some people may get infected the next day, this requires a steady control.. anyway, I hope my critiques are not offending the people, I'm criticizing my country greatly these days, we need to be unanimous in this. we need to ask for more collective efforts. no time for "who got it longer" jokes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ooo View Post
    yeah, the problem with Germany is that there's no official data (really?! it makes no sense in such a technological country..)...
    That's not true.
    Formal (by Robert Koch Institute) confirmed Covid-19 infections in Germany on March, 24, 2020, midnight: 27,436

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    Quote Originally Posted by WinnieW View Post
    That's not true.
    Formal confirmed Covid-19 infections in Germany on March, 24, 2020, midnight: 27,436
    out of how many people tested? that's not to be known. we need these kinds of data now

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    Quote Originally Posted by ooo View Post
    out of how many people tested?
    There is no official accurate number of tested people. However they say roughly about 4 percent of the tested people are infected.
    Which is a estimated number of around 685,000 people.
    There are not enough test kits available to test all people, so only people that show symptoms of infections are tested.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WinnieW View Post
    There is no official accurate number of tested people. However they say roughly about 4 percent of the tested people are infected.
    Which is a estimated number of around 685,000 people.
    There are not enough test kits available to test all people, so only people that show symptoms of infections are tested.

    In Germany, the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians said on March 2, that it had a capacity for about 12,000 tests per day in the ambulatory setting and 10.700 had been tested in the prior week. Costs are borne by the health insurance when the test is ordered by a physician.[121] According to the president of the Robert Koch Institute [March 22], Germany has an overall capacity for 160,000 tests per week.[122]
    according to the declarations of the experts it's impossible theyve conducted 685,000 tests.

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    I guess it's an statistical extrapolated value, because the accurate number of tests conducted is not known. So the statement of 4 percent is based on a smaller number of tests.
    Doctors have only to report positive test results, not the number of negative test results.

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    makes no sense in a study but ok

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    I wouldn't label it as study, it's more like a preliminary report-

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    Quote Originally Posted by khcs View Post
    Actually she makes sense. INTPs like to predict things.

    https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/scie...lines-map-hold

    More details on this study

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    Just reading these posts gives you the root of the problem;

    hate, distrust, and polarization.

    Everyone in this country is so divisive and unwilling to come together.

    This is just a *preview* of things to come for us
    He always finds a way

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    honestly i get angry because I care, because I'm tired of hearing lies about this and I'm tired of inaction, I want this situation to end and the more we ignore the problem or play it dirty the further we get from a solution... IDK what country you live in, I really hope you the best, I hope the best for everyone and I hope everyone has the courage to raise their voice when they experience things they don't deserve.

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    I was sick on my birthday this year, end of February. I got sick, I think 3-4 days prior to that. Started as malaise, then bad muscle aches, then I got a stuffy nose. I had a 103 degree temp and I haven’t had one that high since I was younger. I told my husband I was afraid I was going to quit breathing in my sleep. Then the coughing started. I’ve been stuffy on and off ever since. I kind of wonder if I haven’t had it myself. I just didn’t put two and two together since I didn’t think it was here yet. My 8 year old gave it to me. I imagine she got it at school. But it makes me wonder!! Maybe it was just the regular flu. I’ve heard a lot of people say they think they’ve had it already.
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    Quote Originally Posted by aster View Post
    I was sick on my birthday this year, end of February. I got sick, I think 3-4 days prior to that. Started as malaise, then bad muscle aches, then I got a stuffy nose. I had a 103 degree temp and I haven’t had one that high since I was younger. I told my husband I was afraid I was going to quit breathing in my sleep. Then the coughing started. I’ve been stuffy on and off ever since. I kind of wonder if I haven’t had it myself. I just didn’t put two and two together since I didn’t think it was here yet. My 8 year old gave it to me. I imagine she got it at school. But it makes me wonder!! Maybe it was just the regular flu. I’ve heard a lot of people say they think they’ve had it already.
    Sounds like it.. I've read fevers of 103 or higher are an indicator usually

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    Quote Originally Posted by aster View Post
    ...then I got a stuffy nose. I had a 103 degree temp and I haven’t had one that high since I was younger.
    Stuffy nose (or runny nose) and elevated body temperature is more likely a flu or a common cold. A stuffy nose is a rare symptome for Covid 19.
    Sore throat, dry cough and fever are the most common symptoms for Covid 19, followed by shortness of breath.

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    I've been calling it the bat cold since it's from bats and 4 human coronaviruses are responsible for causing common colds. Supposedly it's related to SARS and structurally similar but doesn't seem to share very many features regarding symptoms or transmission so people have been calling it COVID-19 and not its other official name. Calling it the "Wu Flu" reflects not taking it very seriously and seems to be a lot of how we got in this mess even if "bat cold" sounds like a cold that mutated inside of Batman.

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    One good thing that might come out of this pandemic is an upgrade to the nation's health care system.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WinnieW View Post
    Stuffy nose (or runny nose) and elevated body temperature is more likely a flu or a common cold. A stuffy nose is a rare symptome for Covid 19.
    Sore throat, dry cough and fever are the most common symptoms for Covid 19, followed by shortness of breath.
    Many people have atypical symptoms when they have COVID-19. For example 5% of people with COVID-19 have been documented to have a runny nose, which is not quite a stuffy nose. People could also have a stuffy nose from some other cause like allergies then COVID-19 could make it worse. Perhaps that's what "atypical symptoms" are.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    One good thing that might come out of this pandemic is an upgrade to the nation's health care system.
    I know you're just trying to be optimistic, but I don't think that's worth even one person dying over. The only thing that we could get out of this pandemic that we couldn't get otherwise is possible increased immunity to other bat coronaviruses which seem to be coming in an inevitable tide. (This coronavirus was no surprise to experts in bat diseases, only the fact it hit Wuhan in central China first instead of somewhere subtropical like Guangdong.)

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