The Rise of Far Left Extremism

[Raver]

They'll grow up and deal with their childish fears when their economies become noncompetitive due to aging populations. If you want a vision of how this is going to play out, look no further than Japan, a xenophobic country that has been forced to import vast amounts of migrant labour due to an aging workforce.

The main concern I have with the economic argument is that when automation rears its ugly head, which it likely will happen some time in this century. Wouldn't immigrants become no longer necessary? Heck, even a good chunk of the native population will become obsolete as well once automation comes in. A declining population due to low birth rates would become more of a boon at that point. As for Japan, I think only time will tell of their repercussions of not allowing many immigrants will do. It will be an interesting contrast to see how Japan, a 1st world homogeneous ethno-state does economically compared to most of Western Europe that is seeking to become more multicultural in the long term.

[xerx]

The main concern I have with the economic argument is that when automation rears its ugly head, which it likely will happen some time in this century. Wouldn't immigrants become no longer necessary? Heck, even a good chunk of the native population will become obsolete as well once automation comes in. A declining population due to low birth rates would become more of a boon at that point. As for Japan, I think only time will tell of their repercussions of not allowing many immigrants will do. It will be an interesting contrast to see how Japan, a 1st world homogeneous ethno-state does economically compared to Western Europe that is seeking to become more multicultural in the long term.

It's jumping the gun to assume that automation is around the corner. For one thing, we're quickly reaching the limits of transistor miniaturization, meaning that traditional CPUs aren't going to get faster. Short of some breakthrough in new methods of computation (quantum, optical, etc..), many tasks will still be difficult or expensive to automate.

Even with some form of automation and an aging workforce, it might still be cheaper for firms to find labour overseas. They wouldn't even have to go far since a large reservoir of cheap African labour is right around the corner. That labour can stay and spend its earnings in Africa, or it can migrate to Europe and pay taxes.

[Singu]

The main concern I have with the economic argument is that when automation rears its ugly head, which it likely will happen some time in this century. Wouldn't immigrants become no longer necessary? Heck, even a good chunk of the native population will become obsolete as well once automation comes in. A declining population due to low birth rates would become more of a boon at that point. As for Japan, I think only time will tell of their repercussions of not allowing many immigrants will do. It will be an interesting contrast to see how Japan, a 1st world homogeneous ethno-state does economically compared to most of Western Europe that is seeking to become more multicultural in the long term.

The problem is thinking that more people is somehow bad. The more people the better, because that means more creativity to solve more problems. Automation isn't creative.

Most developed countries don't have enough birth rates to sustain the population, so without immigrants they have no choice but to decline to a slow death.

[Cheebs]

The problem is thinking that more people is somehow bad. The more people the better, because that means more creativity to solve more problems. Automation isn't creative.

Most developed countries don't have enough birth rates to sustain the population, so without immigrants they have no choice but to decline to a slow death.

Incentivizing the native population to have children is impossible because the corporations who want cheap labor told me so. ( `ε´ )

[Raver]

It's jumping the gun to assume that automation is around the corner. For one thing, we're quickly reaching the limits of transistor miniaturization, meaning that traditional CPUs aren't going to get faster. Short of some breakthrough in new methods of computation (quantum, optical, etc..), many tasks will still be difficult or expensive to automate.

Even with some form of automation and an aging workforce, it might still be cheaper for firms to find labour overseas. They wouldn't even have to go far since a large reservoir of cheap African labour is right around the corner. That labour can stay and spend its earnings in Africa, or it can migrate to Europe and pay taxes.

Automation will be an issue though regardless if it happens sooner or later, it's just a matter of when rather than if and when that happens, immigrants and natives will be competing for the remaining jobs left and it won't be pretty. So, why bring in a lot of immigrants that are beneficial to the country at the moment, but will be a burden in the future? It just seems short-sighted to me to be honest, to be so fixated on solving current problems without taking into consideration the future problems that can arise as a consequence of trying to solve present problems.

The problem is thinking that more people is somehow bad. The more people the better, because that means more creativity to solve more problems. Automation isn't creative.

Most developed countries don't have enough birth rates to sustain the population, so without immigrants they have no choice but to decline to a slow death.

Quantity /= quality. Bringing in more people is going to be both good and bad. Sure, some of them will be intelligent, talented and hard working people and will help move the country further, but most of them will just be ordinary people and that's fine and there will also be a minority of immigrants that will cause trouble and problems. The majority of immigrants are not going to be innovating solutions for future problems, only the minority and the same applies to the native population as well of course. I do think immigration is one way to fix declining birth rates, but another way is giving subsidies to larger families like some European countries and Hungary have done. I'm not saying that you have to specifically do one or the other, but there are two possible solutions to low birth rates, not just one.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/have...-for-life.html
https://www.vox.com/2016/5/23/114406...hild-allowance

[xerx]

Automation will be an issue though regardless if it happens sooner or later, it's just a matter of when rather than if and when that happens, immigrants and natives will be competing for the remaining jobs left and it won't be pretty. So, why bring in a lot of immigrants that are beneficial to the country at the moment, but will be a burden in the future? It just seems short-sighted to me to be honest, to be so fixated on solving current problems without taking into consideration into future problems that can arise as a consequence of trying to solve short term problems.

I'm not convinced that the job losses caused by automation are going to be as dramatic as your scenario suggests; from what I've seen and read, economists are divided or unclear about the possible effects.

As for current problems, solving these isn't optional. The biggest current burden is the continued retirement of old people and the consequent growth of the welfare system, which the millennial generation is going to have shoulder. You bring up the fact that immigrants are here to get freebies; the case, however, is quite the opposite: immigrants pay contributions to taxes that the welfare state needs to function.

[Raver]

I'm not convinced that the job losses caused by automation are going to be as dramatic as your scenario suggests; from what I've seen and read, even economists are divided or unclear about the possible effects.

As for current problems, solving these isn't optional. The biggest current burden is the continued retirement of old people and the consequent growth of the welfare system, which the millennial generation is going to have shoulder. You bring up the fact that immigrants are here to get freebies; the case, however, is quite the opposite: immigrants pay contributions to taxes that the welfare state needs to function.

Maybe it won't be as dramatic that most immigrants and natives become obsolete and jobless and start competing with eachother for a scarcity of jobs, but I think it is clear automation will have an impact on the job market and it is not as far in the future as you think.

At the very least, we should minimize immigration right now with the goal to maintain populations at the same level in most 1st world nations with the exception of a few because of the threat of automation instead of continuously striving for population growth.



https://www.visualcapitalist.com/aut...jobs-7-charts/

As for legal immigrants paying taxes, that may be true, but only of the legal ones that actually work. Legal immigrants that don't work or even worse illegal immigrants do nothing to contribute to the welfare state.

[xerx]

Maybe it won't be as dramatic that most immigrants and natives become obsolete and jobless and start competing with eachother for a scarcity of jobs, but I think it is clear automation will have an impact and it is not as far in the future as you think.

At the very least, we should consider toning down and minimizing immigration right now to sustain birth rates rather than create population growth because of automation instead of continuously striving for population growth.



https://www.visualcapitalist.com/aut...jobs-7-charts/

As for legal immigrants paying taxes, that may be true, but only of the legal ones that actually work. Legal immigrants that don't work or even worse illegal immigrants do nothing to contribute to the welfare state.

RE: automation: sure, that's a possibility.
RE: immigrants working: countries typically try to attract highly educated immigrants who are willing to work in their chosen professions. That might change with enough job shortages that are difficult to automate (think of simple jobs related to elderly care).

[Raver]

RE: automation: sure, that's a possibility.
RE: immigrants working: countries typically try to attract highly educated immigrants who are willing to work in their chosen professions. That might change with enough job shortages that are difficult to automate (think of simple jobs related to elderly care).

That is true for most legal immigration into the US/Canada/Aus/NZ. As for the mass immigration situation in Europe, there is an awful lot of unskilled economic migrants that will drain the welfare system without contributing any taxes. If European nations only accepted refugees from Syria instead of mostly economic migrants then this wouldn't be an issue.

[mfckrz]

The problem is thinking that more people is somehow bad. The more people the better, because that means more creativity to solve more problems.

The world is in the midst of ecological catastrophe with unprecedented rates of extinction and loss of nature. The last thing it needs is more people.

Automation isn't creative.

90 IQ migrants aren't either.

Most developed countries don't have enough birth rates to sustain the population, so without immigrants they have no choice but to decline to a slow death.

It's natural for population levels to decline. We've effectively reached our Malthusian limits in the developed world. Stop huffing the fallacy of endless growth.

[Singu]

The world is in the midst of ecological catastrophe with unprecedented rates of extinction and loss of nature. The last thing it needs is more people.

If you think that people are problem-creators and not problem-solvers, then yes. Fortunately people are problem-solvers.

90 IQ migrants aren't either.

IQ has nothing to do with creativity. It has to do with the right culture.

It's natural for population levels to decline. We've effectively reached our Malthusian limits in the developed world. Stop huffing the fallacy of endless growth.

Uh... the whole point was that Malthus was wrong. Population growth will be offset by innovation and creativity, in this case innovation of food production and agriculture. However what I'm talking about is sustaining the current population, not necessarily population growth. With the declining population, younger generations will have to take the burden of taking care of the aging population, and there's simply going to be not enough young people and the whole system is going to collapse.

[mfckrz]

If you think that people are problem-creators and not problem-solvers, then yes. Fortunately people are problem-solvers.

This could only be true assuming more people with the necessary intelligence to contend with civilizational problems of ever increasing complexity. Which will not be the case for us on this present trajectory, as Meisenberg explains:

IQ has nothing to do with creativity. It has to do with the right culture.

On the contrary, this is easy to ascertain: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3682183/

"For the most advanced indicator of creativity, namely creative achievement, intelligence remains relevant even at the highest ability range."

Uh... the whole point was that Malthus was wrong.

Malthus was not wrong (only deferred). This is a conceit of pollyannas living in the afterglow of the Industrial Revolution.

Population growth will be offset by innovation and creativity, in this case innovation of food production and agriculture.

Again, there are realistic limits to growth. And at a normative level, one should question whether continued population growth is desirable. Especially when depopulation would solve a bevy of contemporary problems…

However what I'm talking about is sustaining the current population, not necessarily population growth. With the declining population, younger generations will have to take the burden of taking care of the aging population, and there's simply going to be not enough young people and the whole system is going to collapse.

There are three other options out of this quandary:

–Automation continues to augment labor productivity such that fewer workers are required
–Advances in longevity medicine to expand functional lifespan and keep older people working
–Euthanize old folks