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Thread: Are we in the middle of a winter?

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    Default Are we in the middle of a winter?

    DISCLAIMER: I'm well aware that this should all be taken with a grain of salt as a generational theory is merely analyzing patterns of the past and present and predicting future trends attributing them to arbitrary categorical cycles.


    Hard times create strong men,
    Strong men create good times,
    Good times create weak men,
    Weak men create hard times.



    The last winter we had was back during the great depression, World War II and the dust bowl (1929-1946). Now we're heading towards a new crisis once again with the Great Recession, War on Terror, Climate Change, Opioid epidemic and Migration Crisis (2008-2030????) Is this a coincidence or is this really a pattern that all societies go through? We'd be smack in the middle of winter if this generational theory was true. Right after the '08 recession, we have been in a constant state of flux. Economically, the gap between the rich and poor is greater than ever. Living costs have skyrocketed to new heights, while living wages cannot keep up. We've been in war in Afghanistan since 2001, the war in Syria has been ongoing since 2011, which has spawned the Migration Crisis.

    The Opioid epidemic has resulted in a substantial amount of deaths in everyday average Americans possibly due to the stress of dire times we are currently living in economically and in other aspects. Regardless of your stance on mass migration whether you're for or against it, it's safe to say that there is a migration crisis occurring right now at Western Europe and the American border. Multitudes of third world immigrants setting up tents and camps inside countries they've moved into legally or illegally is not a good thing regardless of your stance on immigration. Politically since 2016, we've never been more politically divided then ever. Far left activists (SJWs) are seeking to undermine free speech in the guise of fighting hate speech pushing many to the far right as a reaction to their antics.

    The rise of fake news with mainstream media being more interested in promoting an agenda (mostly Liberal biased ignoring Fox News) and making money rather than publishing accurate news stories. Less men and women getting married and having kids, more single men ending up unemployed living at home into their thirties without a career or relationship and the growing amount of childless women with a career. We've had a rise in mass shootings and terrorist attacks in the past years where many have died for simply being at the wrong place at the wrong time. Tech censorship on social media looms as tech corporations gain more power, money and influence. The past decade or so has not been boring to say the least, the amount of social upheaval is unparalleled and only rivaled by the last winter that occurred during the great depression and WWII.

    The 2020s is likely to be a traumatic and intense decade that hopefully we will come out stronger from it as soon as the 2030s come around. Politically, with the left and right so heavily divided and moving to further extremes, will we be able to reach a compromise? Where will we end up as a society between protecting minorities and protecting free speech? Where will we end up between capitalism and socialism? How will we deal with mass immigration? What sources of energy will we prioritize? So my question to you is are we in the middle of a metaphorical winter that started with the 2008 recession and won't end until around the late 2020s to the early 2030s or are these drastic changes occurring in society that are merely happening due to coincidence or is it a mixture of both?


    Generations


    Lost Generation (1883–1900)
    Greatest Generation (1901–1924)
    Silent Generation (1925–1942)
    Baby Boomer (1943–1960)
    13th Generation/Generation X (1961–1981)
    Millennial Generation/Generation Y (1982–2004)
    Homeland Generation/Generation Z (2005–2025????)


    Generational Archetypes


    Prophets

    Prophet generations (dominant) are born after a Crisis, during a time of rejuvenated community life and consensus around a new societal order. Prophets grow up as the increasingly indulged children of this post-Crisis era, come of age as self-absorbed young crusaders of an Awakening, focus on morals and principles in midlife, and emerge as elders guiding another Crisis. Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their coming-of-age fervor and their values-oriented elder leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area of vision, values, and religion. Their best-known historical leaders include John Winthrop, William Berkeley, Samuel Adams, Benjamin Franklin, James Polk, Abraham Lincoln, Herbert Hoover, and Franklin Roosevelt. These were principled moralists who waged idealistic wars and incited others to sacrifice. Few of them fought themselves in decisive wars, and they are remembered more for their inspiring words than for great actions. (Example among today’s living generations: Boomers.)

    Nomads

    Nomad generations (recessive) are born during an Awakening, a time of social ideals and spiritual agendas, when young adults are passionately attacking the established institutional order. Nomads grow up as under-protected children during this Awakening, come of age as alienated, post-Awakening adults, become pragmatic midlife leaders during a Crisis, and age into resilient post-Crisis elders Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their fast-paced, alienated rising-adult years and their midlife years of pragmatic leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area of liberty, survival and honor. Their best-known historical leaders include Nathaniel Bacon, William Stoughton, George Washington, John Adams, Ulysses Grant, Grover Cleveland, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower. These were shrewd realists who preferred individualistic, pragmatic solutions to problems. (Example among today’s living generations: Generation X.)

    Heroes

    Hero generations (dominant) are born after an Awakening, during a time of individual pragmatism, self-reliance, and laissez faire. Heroes grow up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, come of age as team-oriented young optimists during a Crisis, emerge as energetic, overly-confident midlifers, and age into politically powerful elders attacked by another Awakening. Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their collective military triumphs in young adulthood and their political achievements as elders. Their main societal contributions are in the area of community, affluence, and technology. Their best-known historical leaders include Cotton Mather, “King” Carter, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, John F. Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan. These have been vigorous and rational institution builders. In midlife, all have been aggressive advocates of economic prosperity and public optimism, and all have maintained a reputation for civic energy and competence in old age. (Examples among today’s living generations: G.I.s and Millennials.)

    Artists

    Artist generations (recessive) are born during a Crisis, a time when great dangers cut down social and political complexity in favor of public consensus, aggressive institutions, and an ethic of personal sacrifice. Artists grow up overprotected by adults preoccupied with the Crisis, come of age as the socialized and conformist young adults of a post-Crisis world, break out as process-oriented midlife leaders during an Awakening, and age into thoughtful post-Awakening elders. Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their quiet years of rising adulthood and their midlife years of flexible, consensus-building leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area of expertise and due process. Their best-known historical leaders include William Shirley, Cadwallader Colden, John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson, Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson. These have been complex social technicians and advocates for fairness and inclusion. (Examples among today’s living generations: Silent and Homelanders.)


    Turnings


    Recent Turnings - Millennial Saeculum (73 + years)

    American High - 1946-1963 (High/Spring)
    Consciousness Revolution - 1963-1983 (Awakening/Summer)
    Culture Wars - 1984-2008 (Unraveling/Fall)
    Millennial Crisis - 2008-2030???? (Crisis/Winter)

    High aka Spring

    The First Turning is a High. This is a post-Crisis era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, though those outside the majoritarian center often feel stifled by the conformity. America’s most recent First Turning was the post-World War II American High, beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963. The Silent Generation (Artist archetype, born 1925 to 1942) came of age during this era. Known for their caution, conformity, and institutional trust, Silent young adults epitomized the mood of the High. Most married early, sought stable corporate jobs, and moved into new suburbs.

    Awakening aka Summer

    The Second Turning is an Awakening. This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Young activists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural and spiritual poverty. America’s most recent Awakening was the “Consciousness Revolution,” which spanned from the campus and inner-city revolts of the mid 1960s to the tax revolts of the early 1980s. The Boom Generation (Prophet archetype, born 1943 to 1963) came of age during this era. Their idealism and search for authentic self-expression epitomized the mood of the Awakening.

    Unraveling aka Fall

    The Third Turning is an Unraveling. The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of a High: Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Highs come after Crises, when society wants to coalesce and build. Unravelings come after Awakenings, when society wants to atomize and enjoy. America’s most recent Unraveling was the Long Boom and Culture Wars, beginning in the early to mid 1980s and ending in the mid to late 2000s. The era began with a new ethic of individualism (Reagan’s “Morning in America”), which has developed into an edgy popular culture, a pervasive distrust of institutions and leaders, and the splitting of national consensus into competing “values” camps. Generation X (Nomad archetype, born 1961-1981) came of age during this era. Their risk-taking, free agency, and market orientation epitomized the mood of the Unraveling.

    Crisis aka Winter

    The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects towards community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. Fourth Turnings have all been new “founding moments” in America’s history, moments that redefined the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with the end of World War II. The G.I. Generation (Hero archetype, born 1914 to 1928) came of age during this era. Their confidence, optimism, and collective outlook epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s youth, the Millennial Generation (Hero archetype, born 1982 to 2004), show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straus...ational_theory


    The Fourth Turning Infographic:




    Neil Howe, one of the originators of Generations Theory discussing our current Winter Crisis:

    Last edited by Raver; 06-20-2019 at 04:09 AM.
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    Well it's a mistake to equate human activities to the cyclical nature of seasons or something. Since the laws of human societies are determined by human beings, and not the laws of nature. In short, the future depends on what people choose to do. And the past has also been determined by what people chose to do. It's not unlike anthropomorphizing natural disasters and attributing them to the wrath of Gods or something. Natural disasters are caused by the laws of nature, not the laws of the personal psychology of Gods.

    Karl Marx may have been correct in his critique of capitalism, but he was mistaken in prophesying it. It could be true that capitalism would eventually collapse. And it could be true that there would be a "socialist revolution" after that, as he had predicted. But it could also be true that human societies would descend into chaos and people would not recover from that. Or it could also be true that someone would come up with a completely new economic theory that would allow us to do economic activities in a completely new and unexpected way. That would be impossible to predict, since it's something completely new that nobody had thought up before.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Singu View Post
    Well it's a mistake to equate human activities to the cyclical nature of seasons or something. Since the laws of human societies are determined by human beings, and not the laws of nature. In short, the future depends on what people choose to do. And the past has also been determined by what people chose to do. It's not unlike anthropomorphizing natural disasters and attributing them to the wrath of Gods or something. Natural disasters are caused by the laws of nature, not the laws of the personal psychology of Gods.

    Karl Marx may have been correct in his critique of capitalism, but he was mistaken in prophesying it. It could be true that capitalism would eventually collapse. And it could be true that there would be a "socialist revolution" after that, as he had predicted. But it could also be true that human societies would descend into chaos and people would not recover from that. Or it could also be true that someone would come up with a completely new economic theory that would allow us to do economic activities in a completely new and unexpected way. That would be impossible to predict, since it's something completely new that nobody had thought up before.
    I understand your point, but aren't humans bound by the laws of nature as we're a part of nature? Also, aren't human societies capable of repeating the same mistakes in different ways because generations under a new 80 year cycle forgets the mistakes of its predecessors and repeats them in different ways? Like the quote "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes". As for socialism, I don't think we're heading towards any form of pure socialism in the near future. However, I do see social democracy as a possible positive trend for countries outside of Western Europe that has already adopted it, which is capitalism with socialist elements so it diminishes the drawbacks of capitalism without fully delving into the weaknesses of socialism. I think in the future, we'll likely figure out an economic system better than both capitalism and socialism, but it won't be for a very long period of ftime IMO.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raver View Post
    I understand your point, but aren't humans bound by the laws of nature as we're a part of nature? Also, aren't human societies capable of repeating the same mistakes in different ways because generations under a new 80 year cycle forgets the mistakes of its predecessors and repeats them in different ways? Like the quote "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes". As for socialism, I don't think we're heading towards any form of pure socialism in the near future. However, I do see social democracy as a possible positive trend for countries outside of Western Europe that has already adopted it, which is capitalism with socialist elements so it diminishes the drawbacks of capitalism without fully delving into the weaknesses of socialism. I think in the future, we'll likely figure out an economic system better than both capitalism and socialism, but it won't be for a very long period of ftime IMO.
    I think people can repeat the same mistake, but only if they choose to. But there could also be someone who would propose a new solution and say that we should try something new. And that can't be predicted, because if we could, then we would have had a solution now, and not later.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Singu View Post
    I think people can repeat the same mistake, but only if they choose to. But there could also be someone who would propose a new solution and say that we should try something new. And that can't be predicted, because if we could, then we would have had a solution now, and not later.
    Of course. IMO, I think the issue is that we repeat the same mistakes, but under different pretenses to justify it so we don't realize we're doing it again. As for proposing a new original solution that can actually work and be implemented, I agree that cannot be predicted.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raver View Post
    Of course. I think the issue is that we repeat the same mistake, but under different pretenses to justify it so we don't realize we're doing it. As for proposing a new original solution that can actually work and be implemented, I agree that cannot be predicted.
    Well you could say that people are "naturally" conservative or something, and they'd rather stick their heads in the sand, and not do anything and doom themselves. But how can it be that we know that rationally it's wrong, but we "don't feel it in our hearts"? Well the solution is that we'd better have systems, institutions, laws, cultures, etc, to save us from our own human foibles so that we don't screw ourselves up. So sometimes, if not often the case, those rational systems that we create are even more clever than ourselves. But of course, it doesn't mean that they're perfect, and they're also error-prone like anything else.

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    Every time is a winter for somebody. Although I do tend to agree with the whole hard times...strong men thing.

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    so millennials aren't the huge pussies we're made out to be?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Singu View Post
    Well you could say that people are "naturally" conservative or something, and they'd rather stick their heads in the sand, and not do anything and doom themselves. But how can it be that we know that rationally it's wrong, but we "don't feel it in our hearts"? Well the solution is that we'd better have systems, institutions, laws, cultures, etc, to save us from our own human foibles so that we don't screw ourselves up. So sometimes, if not often the case, those rational systems that we create are even more clever than ourselves. But of course, it doesn't mean that they're perfect, and they're also error-prone like anything else.
    Well, the idea of generational theory is that we reinvent these systems, institutions and laws during a winter crisis as our previous ones all come crashing down, which we are going through right now. As for people that are naturally conservative or naturally liberal, I believe that they both play a crucial role in all of this. Liberals' purpose is to introduce positive ideas that will benefit society, conservatives' purpose is to reject negative ideas that will harm society, while centrists tend to support both sides specifically in ways they view beneficial. Neither role should be discredited or diminished as they both are valuable for society, but in completely different ways.

    Quote Originally Posted by ouronis View Post
    Every time is a winter for somebody. Although I do tend to agree with the whole hard times...strong men thing.
    This is true. However, society's four turnings actively reflect a human life and I don't think that it's coincidental that both last roughly ~80 years. Society eroding and reinventing itself every ~80 years makes sense as it is in tune with the average life span. I also agree that we all go through our own winter, fall, spring and summer seasons in our own life as well. So society, just like a human life goes through its own ups, downs and everything in between.

    Quote Originally Posted by xerxe View Post
    so millennials aren't the huge pussies we're made out to be?
    If this theory is correct, millennials will be looked back in history as a strong minded and effective generation just like the greatest generation. We all know the real worst generation of modern times is the baby boomers :



    And who better to represent the quintessential baby boomer than Donald Trump himself?
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    I read some of his stuff and he's at least correct that Millennial media is bland and conformist compared to what they had in the 1960's. This isn't a bad thing per se; watching boomers age into tattooed grandparents who get naked at Rolling Stones concerts is cringe-inducing af.

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    After 2008 something changed and life got harder, or at least it kinda got harder to earn good money with just hard work and a bit of intelligence.
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    Quote Originally Posted by xerxe View Post
    I read some of his stuff and he's at least correct that Millennial media is bland and conformist compared to what they had in the 1960's. This isn't a bad thing per se; watching boomers age into tattooed grandparents who get naked at Rolling Stones concerts is cringe-inducing af.
    Agreed, it is basically the difference between those who reached young adulthood during a counter culture summer phase in the 1960s and those who reached young adulthood during a recession winter phase in the 2010s.

    Quote Originally Posted by FDG View Post
    After 2008 something changed and life got harder, or at least it kinda got harder to earn good money with just hard work and a bit of intelligence.
    People generally underestimate how significant and traumatic the 2008 recession was. We were fortunate to diminish and avert it with government bail outs, but that was merely a band-aid that protected the general economy and several big corporations mostly from failing like it did in the 1930s during the great depression.

    Only in the long term, will the repercussions of the 2008 recession to average middle class and working class families become fully apparent. What we are seeing so far is a worsening trend of a diminishing middle class, rising living costs and salaries not keeping up. Current cultural and societal upheavals were likely sparked from the 2008 recession.
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    I think humanity will face a technological revolution. Modern society was structured because of the industrial revolution.
    I think a global reset and a new economical system via technology is going to emerge as the ultimate, sustainable and brand new solution with multiple benefits. There will be a war for technology. The one who controls and impose it will rule the world. China already has this technology and is testing it in its cities. I don't think North America will be able to keep up with the leadership. But Amazon is testing this method with physical stores. It will the end of physical money. Automatic phone payments are going to be used as transition and adaptation. The winner of this battle would brand people and migrate their account info to skin dispositive. It will be used as ID. People would be no longer able to receive money, buy or sell without it. Immigration problems will end. There would be no terrorism as everyone will be identified automatically in airports or at distance via street surveillance cameras or similar. Black market and corruption is going to be limited as money is going to be tracked and monitored. Criminality will descend as ppl could be easily identified. Individual Spying. Totalitarian state covered up with promises of peace and security for all. Millenials will think the end of physical money will erase injustice. Freedom and the world as we know it is going disappear and change. The new terrorists would be those who don't accept this new system. They would be labeled and stigmatized as potential criminals and terrorists. They would be confined and their possessions taken by government as they can't pay bills anymore.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ragdoll Lynx View Post
    I think humanity will face a technological revolution. Modern society was structured because of the industrial revolution.
    I think a global reset and a new economical system via technology is going to emerge as the ultimate, sustainable and brand new solution with multiple benefits. There will be a war for technology. The one who controls and impose it will rule the world. China already has this technology and is testing it in its cities. I don't think North America will be able to keep up with the leadership. But Amazon is testing this method with physical stores. It will the end of physical money. Automatic phone payments are going to be used as transition and adaptation. The winner of this battle would brand people and migrate their account info to skin dispositive. It will be used as ID. People would be no longer able to receive money, buy or sell without it. Immigration problems will end. There would be no terrorism as everyone will be identified automatically in airports or at distance via street surveillance cameras or similar. Black market and corruption is going to be limited as money is going to be tracked and monitored. Criminality will descend as ppl could be easily identified. Individual Spying. Totalitarian state covered up with promises of peace and security for all. Millenials will think the end of physical money will erase injustice. Freedom and the world as we know it is going disappear and change. The new terrorists would be those who don't accept this new system. They would be labeled and stigmatized as potential criminals and terrorists. They would be confined and their possessions taken by government as they can't pay bills anymore.
    IMO, while the details are certainly up for debate, I think it is becoming clearer as time passes by that the future of humanity worldwide in 1st and 3rd world countries alike to varying degrees is heading towards a dark grim cyberpunk future. Totalitarian tiptoe is akin to the boiling frog metaphor. We are slowly heading towards totalitarianism so in the span of years it is not noticeable, but in decades it more evident and in centuries it becomes obvious.

    Nearly everything we are witnessing occurring politically from both sides of the spectrum only confirm what I am suspecting and fear. Either enough people wake up to put a stop to it or we end up submitting to tyranny. It is clear we are heading towards a world that benefits the few at the expense of the many. The many are too busy fighting amongst themselves to notice unfortunately. A lot of my political beliefs are based on preventing a dystopian future. This movie did a good job of showing a potential cyber punk future hundreds of years from now:

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ragdoll Lynx View Post
    I think humanity will face a technological revolution. Modern society was structured because of the industrial revolution.
    I think a global reset and a new economical system via technology is going to emerge as the ultimate, sustainable and brand new solution with multiple benefits. There will be a war for technology. The one who controls and impose it will rule the world. China already has this technology and is testing it in its cities. I don't think North America will be able to keep up with the leadership. But Amazon is testing this method with physical stores. It will the end of physical money. Automatic phone payments are going to be used as transition and adaptation. The winner of this battle would brand people and migrate their account info to skin dispositive. It will be used as ID. People would be no longer able to receive money, buy or sell without it. Immigration problems will end. There would be no terrorism as everyone will be identified automatically in airports or at distance via street surveillance cameras or similar. Black market and corruption is going to be limited as money is going to be tracked and monitored. Criminality will descend as ppl could be easily identified. Individual Spying. Totalitarian state covered up with promises of peace and security for all. Millenials will think the end of physical money will erase injustice. Freedom and the world as we know it is going disappear and change. The new terrorists would be those who don't accept this new system. They would be labeled and stigmatized as potential criminals and terrorists. They would be confined and their possessions taken by government as they can't pay bills anymore.
    Or…


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ragdoll Lynx View Post
    I think humanity will face a technological revolution. Modern society was structured because of the industrial revolution.
    I think a global reset and a new economical system via technology is going to emerge as the ultimate, sustainable and brand new solution with multiple benefits. There will be a war for technology. The one who controls and impose it will rule the world. China already has this technology and is testing it in its cities. I don't think North America will be able to keep up with the leadership. But Amazon is testing this method with physical stores. It will the end of physical money. Automatic phone payments are going to be used as transition and adaptation. The winner of this battle would brand people and migrate their account info to skin dispositive. It will be used as ID. People would be no longer able to receive money, buy or sell without it. Immigration problems will end. There would be no terrorism as everyone will be identified automatically in airports or at distance via street surveillance cameras or similar. Black market and corruption is going to be limited as money is going to be tracked and monitored. Criminality will descend as ppl could be easily identified. Individual Spying. Totalitarian state covered up with promises of peace and security for all. Millenials will think the end of physical money will erase injustice. Freedom and the world as we know it is going disappear and change. The new terrorists would be those who don't accept this new system. They would be labeled and stigmatized as potential criminals and terrorists. They would be confined and their possessions taken by government as they can't pay bills anymore.
    If money became digital humanity will become a slave race. Black markets will spring up in response. You could kiss your freedoms goodbye. They won't confine people in prisons and they won't take your possessions. You just will be locked out from the system. Not much different from today, except today you can still walk around with physical cash and that buys you freedom of movement and life.

    China is already practising a Social Credit system. Your good behaviour gives you rewards, your bad behaviour, what they deem to be bad, will have you locked out from the system. You can't have facebook, you cant buy a train ticket to go someplace. This is already happening today.

    If money goes digital you will become a total serf of the Banking State.

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    If you are going to think of Winter, summer, spring, fall,

    you need to think much further time frames.

    Maybe we already arose to splendor before the end of the last ice age and were wiped out by a cataclysm, like a metoer impact in the Northern ice sheets that sent the planet into a deep freeze and then 1000 years later a subsequent secondary impact with the same comet stream struck the ocean and raised the temperatures of the planet again, but not before all of pre history was lost.

    There is a greek legend of Prometheus. The moral of the story was that having invented Fire, man would be free to worship as he pleased with his new found energy and energy saving device, no longer worshiping the old Gods with toil.

    It came at a cost, he would always be striving to escape misery.

    To me, all of history seems to be a movement towards escaping misery. Now that we are here in the age of energy, we are still striving to escape misery.

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    Ragdoll Lynx's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by timber View Post
    If money became digital humanity will become a slave race. Black markets will spring up in response. You could kiss your freedoms goodbye. They won't confine people in prisons and they won't take your possessions. You just will be locked out from the system. Not much different from today, except today you can still walk around with physical cash and that buys you freedom of movement and life.

    China is already practising a Social Credit system. Your good behavior gives you rewards, your bad behavior, what they deem to be bad, will have you locked out from the system. You can't have facebook, you cant buy a train ticket to go someplace. This is already happening today.

    If money goes digital you will become a total serf of the Banking State.
    yep, I know, its not some dystopian future, is happening now, but it will extend over other countries and whoever wins the current economic and technological war is going to implement worldwide a new economic system /new crypto currency.

    But, what would happen if for example, 20% of the population won't submit to this system? Do you think you will be able to keep your possessions (without being able to pay taxes and services bills) to walk around freely like a beggar? Bet no. Ppl who doesnt submit to the system will be a big problem, they would be confined otherwise they will stealing and commit other kind of crimes.

    Now a problem is this stuff would be "sold" as good, positive, innovating, sustainable,fair and any other adjective useful for getting ppl accepting it without thinking twice. Fear, insecurity and poverty will be a tool for pushing it. I think this is going to be implemented step by step in the next 30 years. A lot of steps are being tried right now in different places around the globe.





    what-is-codi-and-how-does-it-work-in-mexico
    https://www.tellerreport.com/life/--...HycsfxQOE.html


    When most ppl think on a world without "money" they imagine a utopian world were peace, security and mutual benefit would reign, banks will be abolished and debts won't exist. Sustainable energy will be there for all and hippies will exchange organic stuff they cultivate in their garden by manual labour, but in reality this could turn to be digital slavery.





    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHho8Pa0O6I

    For example, bunch of TEDX talks about "moneyless" societies already working on ppls minds (as always) to accept something presenting the benefits and inifinte postive possibilities of it (but not the potential risks and implications) mentioning obvious facts and well known failures and deficiencies of the current system.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKCTiwK1iF0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LViQjSXjZPw

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88ksYFsleto

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5uGLbV5zVo

    @Raver, yeah, a lot of movies from the recent years seem to portray interesting cyberpunk post apocalytpic future scenarios, but I was thinking more in some crypto socialism or communism that will be given as solution to current problems in the next decades.
    Last edited by Ragdoll Lynx; 06-24-2019 at 05:25 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by timber View Post
    If you are going to think of Winter, summer, spring, fall,

    you need to think much further time frames.

    Maybe we already arose to splendor before the end of the last ice age and were wiped out by a cataclysm, like a metoer impact in the Northern ice sheets that sent the planet into a deep freeze and then 1000 years later a subsequent secondary impact with the same comet stream struck the ocean and raised the temperatures of the planet again, but not before all of pre history was lost.

    There is a greek legend of Prometheus. The moral of the story was that having invented Fire, man would be free to worship as he pleased with his new found energy and energy saving device, no longer worshiping the old Gods with toil.

    It came at a cost, he would always be striving to escape misery.

    To me, all of history seems to be a movement towards escaping misery. Now that we are here in the age of energy, we are still striving to escape misery.
    Why can't it be both? You can have seasons that fall under decades in a cycle that last nearly a century or seasons that fall under centuries in a cycle that lasts nearly a millennia. They don't have to be mutually exclusive as it is possible to analyze patterns in human society at varying time scales. Of course, both time frames are susceptible to a form of pattern bias in that you only see patterns when looking for them. However, regardless if they exist or not in reality, both time spans have similar validity and are prone to similar falsedoms as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ragdoll Lynx View Post
    yeah, a lot of movies from the recent years seem to portray interesting cyberpunk post apocalytpic future scenarios, but I was thinking more in some crypto socialism or communism that will be given as solution to current problems in the next decades.
    Gotcha. I generally advocate for social democracy within capitalism, but the idea of a cashless society within socialism/communism seems frightening to me. Far too little potential for upward mobility with authoritarian control of every day citizens sounds like a nightmare. Seems like the bastard child of Brave New World and 1984.
    Last edited by Raver; 06-24-2019 at 05:39 AM.
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    xerxe xerxe's Avatar
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    I don't trust people who make money consulting using their theories because they have an incentive to custom-tailor them to their audience, so I don't trust this. Cyclical history is also something a super-majority of historians dispute. It's still a pretty interesting theory, though.

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    China's gonna grind us all into cat food. There won't BE a light of progress at the end of our dying war. Get over it, trilobites. History's over.
    Quote Originally Posted by Singu View Post
    Shut the fuck up, dumbass.


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    Quote Originally Posted by xerxe View Post
    I don't trust people who make money consulting using their theories because they have an incentive to custom-tailor them to their audience, so I don't trust this. Cyclical history is also something a super-majority of historians dispute. It's still a pretty interesting theory, though.
    I take it all with a grain of salt. The financial incentive is one reason to be critical of it. However, I think it is one of those grey areas where the theory has truth based on history, but also falsedoms forcing patterns in as well.
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