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Thread: How Liberals can exploit the shit out of global warming

  1. #81
    Adam Strange's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xerxe View Post
    What are you talking about?

    It would be a strategic win in Russia's eyes if Western European countries were forced to handle tens of millions of refugees. Not only would it be a shock to European government budgets, it would likely destabilize European politics by raising the the profile of the far-right in the immediate aftermath.

    Russia doesn't even need to go to war, only provide an air shield and supplies under the guise of humanitarian aid.

    You say that I'm overestimating Russia / China / Turkey's strength; I'd say that you have unexamined assumptions about the defensive capabilities of European countries.
    Does Russia really want Muslims on its western border, too? Seems unlikely. I suspect that Russian's innate racism makes them prefer Christian capitalists, especially if Russia can get them on the hook of buying Russian fuel.

  2. #82
    mfckrz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xerxe View Post
    What are you talking about?

    It would be a strategic win in Russia's eyes if Western European countries were forced to handle tens of millions of refugees. Not only would it be a shock to European government budgets, it would likely destabilize European politics by raising the the profile of the far-right in the immediate aftermath.
    Sure, but you're describing eventualities Russia has zero capability to orchestrate.

    Russia doesn't even need to go to war, only provide an air shield and supplies under the guise of humanitarian aid.
    Russian air supremacy in NATO territory? Not happening.

    You say that I'm overestimating Russia / China / Turkey's strength; I'd say that you have unexamined assumptions about the defensive capabilities of European countries.
    European countries aren't the ones defending Europe lol. Guess who does that?

  3. #83
    xerxe xerxe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Strange View Post
    Does Russia really want Muslims on its western border, too? Seems unlikely. I suspect that Russian's innate racism makes them prefer Christian capitalists, especially if Russia can get them on the hook of buying Russian fuel.
    At the risk of continuing to make predictions that might have as much credibility as a science fiction film, why wouldn't Russia want minorities that it can protect in exchange for loyalty? It doesn't need to force Europe to take all of them either, just enough to create destabilization and political division. Russia's biggest threats have always come from France or Germany, whereas the threat of Islam has always been a sideshow; neutering either of these would leave Russia unchallenged in Europe, certainly in Eastern Europe.
    Last edited by xerxe; 06-20-2019 at 07:38 PM.

  4. #84
    xerxe xerxe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mfckrz View Post
    Sure, but you're describing eventualities Russia has zero capability to orchestrate.

    Russian air supremacy in NATO territory? Not happening.

    European countries aren't the ones defending Europe lol. Guess who does that?

    Bro, the NATO umbrella isn't guaranteed to last forever, and it's entirely possible that political forces within the United States will compel acquiescence to an isolationist foreign policy -- this is already a popular proposal among many Americans. The United States might have to contend with its own breakdown and could easily face a refugee crisis in its own hemisphere.

    This means that Russia doesn't need to be some ultimate power, just stronger than its rivals on the continent.

    Whatever outcome is had, my goal here isn't to craft some specific narrative of how this situation is going to play out -- we could invent a miraculous technology tomorrow for all I know. My point is that we need to get our act together so that we don't have to consider these pessimistic scenarios at all.

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