Sure, but you're describing eventualities Russia has zero capability to orchestrate.
Russian air supremacy in NATO territory? Not happening.Russia doesn't even need to go to war, only provide an air shield and supplies under the guise of humanitarian aid.
European countries aren't the ones defending Europe lol. Guess who does that?You say that I'm overestimating Russia / China / Turkey's strength; I'd say that you have unexamined assumptions about the defensive capabilities of European countries.
At the risk of continuing to make predictions that might have as much credibility as a science fiction film, why wouldn't Russia want minorities that it can protect in exchange for loyalty? It doesn't need to force Europe to take all of them either, just enough to create destabilization and political division. Russia's biggest threats have always come from France or Germany, whereas the threat of Islam has always been a sideshow; neutering either of these would leave Russia unchallenged in Europe, certainly in Eastern Europe.
Last edited by xerx; 06-20-2019 at 07:38 PM.
Bro, the NATO umbrella isn't guaranteed to last forever, and it's entirely possible that political forces within the United States will compel acquiescence to an isolationist foreign policy -- this is already a popular proposal among many Americans. The United States might have to contend with its own breakdown and could easily face a refugee crisis in its own hemisphere.
This means that Russia doesn't need to be some ultimate power, just stronger than its rivals on the continent.
Whatever outcome is had, my goal here isn't to craft some specific narrative of how this situation is going to play out -- we could invent a miraculous technology tomorrow for all I know. My point is that we need to get our act together so that we don't have to consider these pessimistic scenarios at all.