Do you believe aliens exist

[Radio]

we're arrogant enough to think something like us needs to exist, maybe because we're too scared of accepting the possibility that we're completely alone in the cold unfeeling cosmos.

[Aylen]

http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/vi..._alien_19a.htm

[Radio]

A good example of Ne PoLR. Almost textbook. To support again my ESI typing of you.

always start your argument with a healthy dose of confirmation bias.

Our solar system has 8 planets and 5 dwarf planets. Of those 8 planets, we know for sure life is on 1, of course, out of the 8, and it's most probable that there was life on Mars as well (some scientists suggest this is proven, but we'll give benefit of the doubt, and consider this a 'maybe'). So you can say at least in our solar system, there was a 12.5% chance of life per planet, 1/8, and *maybe* a 25% chance of life per planet, 2/8. We're still buffooning around trying to conclude the existence of life on a planet right next to us; but even in our small sample set, we know there was a 12.5% chance of intelligent life. 25% chance *maybe* of some kind of life.

if we're counting arbitrary quantities why not include asteroids, moons, and dwarf planets, some of which fall technically under our definition of "habitable", and exclude gas giants which technically could never host life? questions questions.

What if we applied that same ratio to other known solar systems within our Milky Way Galaxy?

slow down carl sagan.

Well, our solar system is actually the largest with 8 planets. There are 2 solar systems with 7 planets (14 more planets), 2 solar systems with 6 planets (12 more planets), 15 solar systems with 5 planets (75 more planets), 49 solar systems with 4 planets (196 more planets), 98 solar systems with 3 planets (294 more planets), and about 300 solar systems with 2 planets (about 600 more planets). That gives a total of about 1,199 planets in 467 solar systems, or 1,191 planets outside of our solar system.

If we use the same ratio of 12.5% chance of intelligent life, as taken from the sample set of our very own solar system, and apply it to the rest of the known solar systems in the Milky Way Galaxy, we could estimate there are approximately 1,199*12.5%=149.9 planets out there with intelligent life in our area of the galaxy. Let's round down and say only 149. And there would be an estimated 1,199*25%= 299.8 planets with some kind of life.

Astronomers have found over 500 solar systems in our Milky Way Galaxy, and that number is constantly growing as new ones are discovered. But here's way it gets crazy - those 500 solar systems are only in our small 'neighborhood' of the Milky Way Galaxy. Scientists estimate there are tens of BILLIONS of SOLAR SYSTEMS - possibly as many as 100 billion solar systems in our Milky Way Galaxy.

100 billion is a big number. That's 100,000,000,000. Most of us won't ever make that much money or dollars in our lifetime - but consider that each of those is a SOLAR SYSTEM with a chance of intelligent life. - so whatever $$$ you make in your bi-weekly paycheck, think of each dollar as an entire SOLAR SYSTEM with a sun just like our own, and a chance of intelligent life.

In our known solar systems, we have about 1,199 planets in 467, or about 2.567 planets per solar system. Let's apply that same ratio to the estimate of 100 billion solar systems in our galaxy, and we can estimate there are 256,700,000,000 planets in the Milky Way Galaxy. If we apply the same ratio of 12.5% chance of intelligent life, we can estimate there are 32,087,500,000 planets with intelligent life in the entire galaxy, or 64,175,000,000 planets with some kind of life.

The chances of the Earth being some immaculate exception are statistically extremely low. If my point hasn't been proven yet, here's where it gets even crazier. Astronomers estimate there are at least 100 billion GALAXIES in the observable UNIVERSE. So if we apply the same ratio of intelligent life from our solar system and the same ratio of planets to solar systems from our galaxy to other galaxies, we can estimate there are 32,087,500,000 (# of planets with intelligent life estimate) * 100,000,000,000 (# of galaxies in the observable universe to get 3,208,750,000,000,000,000,000. That means there are an estimated 3,208,750,000,000,000,000,000 planets with intelligent life in our universe, or 6,417,500,000,000,000,000,000 planets with some kind of life.

But what if the Earth is somewhat of an anomaly? What if the chances of having a habitable planet are smaller in other solar systems and in other galaxies? Well, logically, the chances of it being 'less' for things we don't know could also be the same likelihood that it could be 'more'. But what do the professionals think?

As of January 2013, the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics estimated that there are 17 billion, or 17,000,000,000 planets with Earth-like planets in the Milky Way Galaxy. (More than the estimates I gave above!) But according to researchers at the University of Auckland in April of 2013, there could be 100 billion, or 100,000,000,000 Earth-like planets in the Milky Way Galaxy. NOW - multiply that with their estimates of 500 billion galaxies in the universe (again, higher than the conservative estimates I gave above!), and that results in 50 sextillion habitable planets in the universe, or 5x10^22, or 50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 habitable, Earth-like planets in our universe.

So what are the chances that the Earth is some special exception, considering there are an estimated 49,999,999,999,999,999,999,999 other Earth-like habitable planets like us? As you can see, Radio, the chances are MATHEMATICALLY, STATISTICALLY, extremely low.

castles in the sky, because you don't understand how statistics work (see above) and you are basing your entire argument on a faulty premise. i get the general idea you're trying to convey, but i'm not forgiving that creative Ti of yours to get something so rudimentary so so wrong.

It's not really a question of IF there is intelligent life, but a question of WHEN we'll meet intelligent life besides us.

yeah and there's an invisible immaterial unicorn dancing on my table but you can't touch, feel, sense or smell it. okay.

As you can see, Radio, your blanket dismissal of math and the probability of other life existing on other planets based on some blanket emotional assumption of 'arrogance' and 'delusion' is, well, as Starfall put it, actually more arrogant.

sure, i am still making logically sound arguments with a basis in empirical facts.

Ne is defined by the Socionics Institute as "Capabilities, ability, guess, uncertainty, suddenly, polysemy, ability to see the gist, perception of the whole, inner structure, invention, chance"

and Ne-PoLR topics that break communication are "Superfluous information, vague perspectives, “what if?”

not interested.

[Capitalist Pig]

Yes, but they probably haven't been to Earth or made any significant human contact.

[Chae]

Yes, but they probably haven't been to Earth or made any significant human contact.

...either because their vehicles suck or they think we're a hassle.

[The Reality Denialist]

...either because their vehicles suck or they think we're a hassle.

Yeah. If they have capacity to travel fast enough/have freakish life spans and technology. We come off as dust mites. Let's clean that place if we see it as productive enough.
WHAT???
That's actually very common attitude. Just look at expeditions. Those guys were even same species.