You're seriously underestimating guys when it comes to recognizing make-up (I won't comment on fashion or shoes, because I can see that as a weak spot, lol). It's quite obvious that everyone on TV or during a photoshoot is wearing make-up, their skin is almost perfect (no wrinkles) even when they're under strong sunlight and are being looked at from less than 30 cms, unless they're above 60 yo.
Now if you want to convince yourself that someone who says "I perfer natural" really means something else, by all means do it if that makes you happy, it prolly won't lead to a significantly diverging outcome. Just don't try to think that such opinion is a realistic representation of how people think.