What's the chance you'll ever meet a dual who's single

[Jarno]

Of course this depends on the age you're starting your search.

But i'm curious about your opinions

[XoX]

On the average around 3% of the people you meet are duals of your opposite gender (assuming here you are heterosexual).
If we assume that roughly 1/4th of those are single then around 0,5%-1% of the people you meet are single, opposite gender and your duals.

So if you meet one new person every day then you will meet around three potential candidates a year. If you meet one new person every month then you will meet potential candidate once every ten years. If you meet one new person once a year then you are lucky to find one potential candidate in your lifetime. So the more you meet new people the more likely you will find what you are looking for

[Slacker]

Oh wow. That's kind of disturbing. Especially when you realize that the first impression of your dual might not be that positive.

How about this? If you know 100 people, then you know 3 members of the opposite sex who are your duals. If you're in college, every class of 30 people has one. Does the math work for that? It sounds more optimistic anyway.

[Creepy-bg]

what about if you don't go outside anymore like me?

[Blaze]

if one could learn to easily identify one's dual in on-line venues, it could potentially be more efficient and fruitful!

[Drommel]

On the average around 3% of the people you meet are duals of your opposite gender (assuming here you are heterosexual).
If we assume that roughly 1/4th of those are single then around 0,5%-1% of the people you meet are single, opposite gender and your duals.

So if you meet one new person every day then you will meet around three potential candidates a year. If you meet one new person every month then you will meet potential candidate once every ten years. If you meet one new person once a year then you are lucky to find one potential candidate in your lifetime. So the more you meet new people the more likely you will find what you are looking for

First, I think your numbers are made up. Second, even if they're not, you're assuming random distribution. Birds of a quadra flock together. Therefore, the odds could be much higher.

[Slacker]

On the average around 3% of the people you meet are duals of your opposite gender (assuming here you are heterosexual).
If we assume that roughly 1/4th of those are single then around 0,5%-1% of the people you meet are single, opposite gender and your duals.

So if you meet one new person every day then you will meet around three potential candidates a year. If you meet one new person every month then you will meet potential candidate once every ten years. If you meet one new person once a year then you are lucky to find one potential candidate in your lifetime. So the more you meet new people the more likely you will find what you are looking for

First, I think your numbers are made up. Second, even if they're not, you're assuming random distribution. Birds of a quadra flock together. Therefore, the odds could be much higher.

Yet more optimism That's very true too. People attract people of their own quadra, so your friends' friends would be more likely to be of your quadra and you meet more of them than people in general.

[Creepy-bg]

if one could learn to easily identify one's dual in on-line venues, it could potentially be more efficient and fruitful!

It'd probably help if I could figure out my own type then...

[Jarno]

On the average around 3% of the people you meet are duals of your opposite gender (assuming here you are heterosexual).

you mean 6,25%

1/16th of the opposite gender is a dual.

[XoX]

On the average around 3% of the people you meet are duals of your opposite gender (assuming here you are heterosexual).
If we assume that roughly 1/4th of those are single then around 0,5%-1% of the people you meet are single, opposite gender and your duals.

So if you meet one new person every day then you will meet around three potential candidates a year. If you meet one new person every month then you will meet potential candidate once every ten years. If you meet one new person once a year then you are lucky to find one potential candidate in your lifetime. So the more you meet new people the more likely you will find what you are looking for

First, I think your numbers are made up. Second, even if they're not, you're assuming random distribution. Birds of a quadra flock together. Therefore, the odds could be much higher.

My numbers are calculated assuming equal (not random) distribution. So yes if the types are not equally distributed then the odds differ from type to type. In addition to assuming equal distribution I subjectively estimated the amount of single people. It could be lower or higher and probably depends on your age (e.g. at age of 15, 30, 45, and 60 the likelihood of being single probably differs). However I consider my "rule of thumb" calculation pretty good. I also consider it to be fundamentally optimistic because if the types are very unequally distributed then there exists some people who will have significantly lower chance of finding their dual. In my model everybody has at least some chance.

If we assume that members of a Quadra are more likely to "flock" together then this increases the odds of finding your dual, yes. However very often the members of a Club (ST, NT, SF, NF) not Quadra flock together in hobbies and workplaces. Thus there are so many factors involved which we don't know the exact value of that by working with my original simple assumptions we can come as close to the truth as possible and any other method just adds speculation and just decreases the reliability of the result.

[XoX]

On the average around 3% of the people you meet are duals of your opposite gender (assuming here you are heterosexual).

you mean 6,25%

1/16th of the opposite gender is a dual.

What I meant was that 1/16th of people are your dual and 50% of those i.e. 1/32th of people are duals of your opposite gender. 1/32th would be 3,125%.

[Logos]

Low.

[Creepy-bg]

why are you guy's using commas instead of dots? is that some foreign thing?

3.125%

[Logos]

why are you guy's using commas instead of dots? is that some foreign thing?

3.125%

Yes.

[Drommel]

My numbers are calculated assuming equal (not random) distribution.

Yeah, my mistake.

If we assume that members of a Quadra are more likely to "flock" together then this increases the odds of finding your dual, yes. However very often the members of a Club (ST, NT, SF, NF) not Quadra flock together in hobbies and workplaces.

Hobbies and workplaces, maybe, but social situations are a different story. Take an INTp, for example. NT club. But his contrary is ENTp and quasi is INTj, so he'll likely steer clear of them in social situations. An INTp and ENTj, on the other hand, work nicely together. ENTj's and ESFp's get along famously. Thus, the INTp would meet his dual through the ENTj.

Thus there are so many factors involved which we don't know the exact value of that by working with my original simple assumptions we can come as close to the truth as possible and any other method just adds speculation and just decreases the reliability of the result.

Your numbers are just as much a fabrication as any other numbers.

[XoX]

Yes. Commas are used here in numbers instead of dots like 5,67. Dots are generally used in dates like 07.07.2007

However I tend to use both dots and commas depending on which pops first into my head.

[jewels]

yeah...3 out of a hundred!? That could take years to meet enough duals! I'm too impatient for that. I found 4 ISTps online that I dated in a few months. to do that, I'd go dating sites and I'd look through the pics of guys. As soon as I saw someone with an expression that could be ISTp, I'd read their profile and look for other signs that they were ISTp (interests, writing style, facial expression, and occupation).

Then, I'd only email the ones who I was pretty sure were actual ISTps. Then, when they wrote back, I'd send a quiz (just to be sure). And then, if there was any doubt in my mind, I'd ask some questions. ISTps can be chatty in emails, so it's hard to pick them apart from ESTps sometimes.

Everyone said the guys would think I was weird or crazy for doing that, but none of them did. They all seemed to like it actually. People are flattered by the attention, and then they like it when they read the description and they're shocked it describes them so well.

I know some people on this forum have though it was too calculating or something like that to do it that way, but it's no more calculating than looking at someone's education or religion or other background and deciding to email them based on that. If something increases the odds that you'll meet someone you're compatible with, why not?

The odds that you'll meet someone of your dual type that you're attracted to, like, have a similar background w/, etc, are extremely slim. So if you can make it easier to meet more potentials and expand the pool of possible people that could be right for you, why not?

It also helped me spot ISTps in real life easier (and other types too), since I got good at looking for the "signs". And since I had never had an ISTp friend at all before, it was great to see how we interacted. Though it didn't work out w/ them as far as dating (see my thread on that, lol), it completely convinced me that ISTp is the type I want someday down the road. :wink:

[XoX]

Your numbers are just as much a fabrication as any other numbers.

Well I fabricated only a minimal amount of numbers and they are not total fabrications (i.e. random numbers) but educated guesses. It is not as bad as you are trying to make it seem.

About the flocking...from my last workplace I got an INTj and ESTj friend. Then through the ESTj I got an apparent ENFp friend (who is not really my personal friend but more like someone I know). So yes the ESTj introduced me to another Delta Quadra member. It wasn't that useful to me though. The INTj hasn't introduced me to really anyone, lol. So umm..I guess I don't have enough material to really evaluate if the flocking makes much effect or not.

[XoX]

...

Why do your dating practices remind me of a job seeking process...you don't work in HR by any chance?

[Slacker]

I think people do flock together by quadras, at least in my experience. If I look at our friends, they're primarily other Delta people.

[jewels]

...

Why do your dating practices remind me of a job seeking process...you don't work in HR by any chance?

lol That made me laugh. I don't work in HR, but maybe I should?

[meatburger]

I think people do flock together by quadras, at least in my experience. If I look at our friends, they're primarily other Delta people.

Yeah that does even up the odds a lot. The question needs to be expanded out though. Even if you find a single dual, they could be a drug dealer, alcoholic, have one arm etc. You also need to find a single dual that not too strange lol

[science as magic]

i'd imagine it'd depend on the dual? if you were esfp i'd imagine you'd have a good chance but if your dual was say an esfj i'd imagine that there'd be less of a chance (%age wise but since there are more of them you'd have a good shot anyhow)

[Creepy-bg]

I think people do flock together by quadras, at least in my experience. If I look at our friends, they're primarily other Delta people.

Yeah that does even up the odds a lot. The question needs to be expanded out though. Even if you find a single dual, they could be a drug dealer, alcoholic, have one arm etc. You also need to find a single dual that not too strange lol

no problem with drug dealers here! in fact I'd almost prefer it (why should the girls always get to live their drug dealer boyfriends and not me :wink: )

[XoX]

I think people do flock together by quadras, at least in my experience. If I look at our friends, they're primarily other Delta people.

I did a calculation. I included here all people who we spend time with on a rather regular basis:

In my case the rankings (by sheer amount of people)

Quadra ranking:
1. Gamma and Delta
3. Beta
4. Alpha

Type ranking:
1. ESTj
2. ESFp and ESTp

In my wife's case:

Quadra ranking:
1. Gamma
2. Alpha
3. Delta and Beta

Type ranking:
1. ESFp, ISFj
3. ENFp, ESTp

As a total sum of our family interactions

Quadra ranking:
1. Gamma
2. Delta and Alpha
4. Beta

Type ranking:
1. ESFp
2. ISFj
3. ESTj and ESTp

We seem to spend most of our time with sensors (usually with extroverted ones).

Now how do I flock?

[aestrivex]

as has been mentioned, intra-quadra types are more likely to associate than any other types. thus, any calculations you can do with an equal distribution of types is both meaningless and completely useless. my guess would be that the chances are not all that low.

[Slacker]

I wouldn't count family because you don't choose your family. With people you've met and have gotten along with well enough to stick with, I think you'll find it's mostly people from your quadra.

in our case . . . ENFp, ISTp, ENFp, INFj, ENFp, ESTj, ESTj, INFj, ESTj, ISTp, ENFp, ISTp . . . I can go on like that for ages before I have to start counting friends who aren't Deltas (we do have some by the way ) - even an INTj if you INTjs can believe I'd have any INTj friends. My husband is a major ENFp magnet though - I think most of the Deltas we know are friends of his and their spouses. But I've met some too - I have a couple of INFj friends who have Delta spouses. Anyway, we tend to hang out with these people most often.

[xiuxiu]

you will all die alone

[Kristiina]

My group is INTp, INTj, ENTp, ESTp, ISTp and sometimes ENFp and ISTp. But that hardly counts. This group formed before I even moved here. Only the ENTp and me were later additions. Wow... I hadn't realized how all of them match if I start with the INTp. INTj, ISTp, ISTp, EFp, ESTp.

I flock with club. At school the strongest flock I see is me (ENFj), INFj and INFp. Sometimes also a guy who I suspect is INFj as well.

As for the numbers... I think meeting your dual is not all that likely. My dual is out there doing some ISTj things and I can't imagine what they'd be, and I'm here doing my ENFj things which only my friends see, but not other people. I've identified only 3 ISTjs in my entire database of people I have known. lol... considering those odds, INTp is close enough.

[FDG]

as has been mentioned, intra-quadra types are more likely to associate than any other types.

IME, it's club.

[Expat]

as has been mentioned, intra-quadra types are more likely to associate than any other types.

IME, it's club.

I think that that's more likely when you're still studying -- later, as you form longer-term friendships, it's more quadra.

[XoX]

as has been mentioned, intra-quadra types are more likely to associate than any other types. thus, any calculations you can do with an equal distribution of types is both meaningless and completely useless. my guess would be that the chances are not all that low.

Well I have to bend a bit. It is still a good theoretical baseline case. Works as a starting point to the theory. It gives us an initial estimate. In order to make it correspond better with the real world (which is not completely random as pointed out in this thread many times and which I'm slowly accepting) we should estimate how much the flocking actually affects the distribution and randomness. I think an empirical study would be needed to give a statistical estimate of how twisted the distribution actually is. At this point I change the interpretation from "expected amount of duals you meet" to "approximate lower limit of duals you meet". Now this is certainly more optimistic approach too Anyways what is good to keep in mind is that flocking doesn't affect the actual amount of duals out there. It only affects your likelihood of finding them in a given time frame i.e. it works as a catalyst and potentially speeds up the process.

[XoX]

A new theory...

Jump to end of post to skip the calculations and just see the results

Two ways to meet people:
A) random encounter
B) through "friends"

---

A) random encounter:

Total amount of duals = 1/16
Of preferred gender = 1/16 / 2
and single = 1/16 / 2 / 4

Likelihood that a given person is single, preferred gender and dual = 1 / (16*2*4) = 1 / 128

--

B) through "friends"

Estimated distribution of people you meet through friends:
4 of own your quadra
2 of neighboring quadras
1 of opposite quadra

4/7 of people you meet via friends are from your quadra
4/7/4 = 4/28 = 1/7 of those are your duals
1/7/2 = 1/14 of those are preferred gender
1/14/4 = 1/56 of those are preferred gender and single

--

So with following assumptions:
a) Equal distribution of types in the population
b) "Level of flocking": 4 of own quadra / 2 of wing quadras / 1 of opposite quadra
c) 1/4 of people are single
d) 1/2 of people are of gender you prefer

The likelihoods of meeting a "free" (single) preferred gender dual
1/128 in a random encounter
1/56 in an encounter through "friends"

Add here some other paramters like the likelihood of physical sexual attraction, applicable social position, agreeable age difference, and the likelihood that you yourself are single and the probability drops further.

By changing the assumptions you can alter the probabilities further. In any case it seems that in order to find a suitable dual partner you need to be active in seeking out new people as the likelihood of success is not going to be very high. Those who already are in a dual relationship should be happy.

--

Next let's go theoretical and assume a case of "Quadra perfect flocking". Here all people you meet are from your Quadra.
Now the likelihood of single, preferred gender dual is 1/4 / 4 / 2 = 1/32

If we assume "Dual perfect flocking" i.e. that all people you meet are your duals then the likelihood of single, preferred gender dual is 1 / 4 / 2 = 1 / 8

--

So the final result:

Assuming dual-perfect flocking: 1/8 of people you meet are potential dual candidates
Assuming quadra-perfect flocking: 1/32 of people you meet are potential dual candidates
Assuming "realistic" flocking: 1/56 of people you meet are potential dual candidates
Assuming random flocking: 1/128 of people you meet are potential dual candidates

So the actual probability is somewhere between 1/128 and 1/8 with highest likelihood estimate around 1/56. In any case you have to put yourself out there. Meeting new people on a very inconsistent basis isn't going to take you anywhere.


Ok. That's it for now. And if you find an error there please correct it. Too much stuff to check through and I'm lazy and I should be doing something else, lol.

Edit:
I checked this again and the weights given to different Quadras in "realistic" case are not exactly what I had in mind (because there is only one conflicting quadra but two wing quadras. It doesn't really make a big difference though and I'm not going to recalculate. However you choose the weights the "realistic" case would give you somewhere between 1/45 to 1/65 probability of perfect match per person you meet

[Exodus]

Hobbies and workplaces, maybe, but social situations are a different story. Take an INTp, for example. NT club. But his contrary is ENTp and quasi is INTj, so he'll likely steer clear of them in social situations. An INTp and ENTj, on the other hand, work nicely together. ENTj's and ESFp's get along famously. Thus, the INTp would meet his dual through the ENTj.

This is a pattern I see recurring: people meeting their duals through their mirror. Probably because activity relations are easier to start, in general.

[Drommel]

I think an empirical study would be needed to give a statistical estimate of how twisted the distribution actually is.

It's not just about distribution though. The kinds of people you know, what you do in your free time, and things like that factor greatly into the equation, more so I'd say than type distribution.

Assuming dual-perfect flocking: 1/8 of people you meet are potential dual candidates
Assuming quadra-perfect flocking: 1/32 of people you meet are potential dual candidates
Assuming "realistic" flocking: 1/56 of people you meet are potential dual candidates
Assuming random flocking: 1/128 of people you meet are potential dual candidates

These don't sound all that unresonable.

[Jarno]

[quote="XoX"][quote="Jarno"]

On the average around 3% of the people you meet are duals of your opposite gender (assuming here you are heterosexual).

it's easyer to calculate if you only count the woman you meet. (in my case)

so 1/16th of every woman.

i only remember the woman i meet on an average day.


but the result of you calculation is pretty depressing

[Jarno]

by the way, i've noticed there are some dating sites that use mbti typing.

that should give a boost to the odds :wink:

[XoX]

In order to simplify the final result and express it in "layman's terms".

If you meet one new person per day you will find roughly five to ten potentially optimal mating candidates per year.
If you meet one new person per week you will find roughly one potentially optimal mating candidate per year.
If you meet one new person per month it might take you some years to find potentially optimal mating candidate.

If you only meet people in environments where there is no "flocking efect" like people who just happen to be in your class, at the bar, or in your work department then the chances are lower.
If you meet people through your like-minded friends your odds are somewhat or perhaps even considerably higher.

[Ms. Kensington]

This is a pattern I see recurring: people meeting their duals through their mirror. Probably because activity relations are easier to start, in general.

I agree. But I also think that some duals can meet each other fairly easily. Maybe it has to do with some functions being more social than others? Add that to being involved with the same types of activities, maybe.

Also if you say 3 out of 100 people are your dual I think that is rather high, not low (if it is true). You probably see or have the opportunity to talk to (if one is aggressive) like 100s of people a day if you live in a city.

I think the difficulty with duals hooking up could have more to do with prejudices people have toward the dual from hanging out in clubs or people who are also I or E or also S or N.

[aestrivex]

as has been mentioned, intra-quadra types are more likely to associate than any other types.

IME, it's club.

I think that that's more likely when you're still studying -- later, as you form longer-term friendships, it's more quadra.

i'll let the two of you argue about it. i had not thought about the idea of clubs flocking, but that seems very much plausible. i, a high school junior with a social clique whom i rarely ever see outside of school or school related activities consisting of about four people, am not the best person to judge this sort of thing.