- A huge backlash in favor of Planned Parenthood strengthens Obama in all states that attack it. Jan Brewer just cemented her place as the worst governor since George Wallace by striking state aid to Planned Parenthood. The law will probably be struck down in the courts, but if not Brewer could be lynched.
- Obama only needs to win every state Kerry won plus Ohio to win. National polls suggesting Obama's weakness just don't boil down to his excellent standings in several states. The Tea Party is an albatross around Romney's neck: in Maine, the Tea Party will most certainly cost the GOP Olympia Snowe's seat. The defeat of Rick Lugar will probably also play into Democratic hands. The enthusiasm gap will be crucial, and will probably create a coat-tails effect in the Democrats' favor.
- Race is still the elephant in the room. Ultimately Romney will be negatively judged for choosing to run against Mr. Obama. The saga of the First Black President is real, and ongoing. Many will find the idea of voting against Obama too morally troubling to pursue
- The Tea Party will begin its implosion, a process that will only happen in full in 2014. However, this will be the beginning of the deterioration. I predict the GOP nominee in 2016 will destroy the Tea Party in the course of a stinging moral rebuke at their nomination, a necessary event for the return of the GOP to the presidency. Tea Party leaders will be so embarrassed, their health is likely to suffer as a direct consequence.