Tripoli gets serious

[tcaudilllg]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44218013.../#.TlD9HF2-1TA

Gaddafi was holding back the entire time. Reports suggest that the rebels have miscalculated the depth of his support, and have been cornered inside Tripoli. A strike force was defeated outside the city's gates.

This is the real Libya: the nation of city-states ruled over, a la ancient Italy, by one supremely prosperous city at the center. 1/3 of the population lives in Tripoli... those who have prospered under the regime will not give up to Benghazi easily. I think Benghazi should give up, because that city is too powerful to destroy without massive foreign intervention. They can hold the rest of Libya if they want, but Tripoli is well out of reach and ideologically removed from the rest of the country. That city would have to be occupied by a decently sized force before its culture could be converted, over a series of years.

And if Obama does try to send troops there, then I fully support any bids they may make for conscientious objection.

[Trevor]

That's probably it. All he's got is Tripoli. No place to run, no allies, no nothing. Cornered rat. Let's just hope not to see new Stalingrad.

[tcaudilllg]

That's probably it. All he's got is Tripoli. No place to run, no allies, no nothing. Cornered rat. Let's just hope not to see new Stalingrad.

Cornered RATS: have you ever played Xenogears, where at the end of the first disk the protagonists infiltrate the religious city-state of Solaris?

Tripoli is like that.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011..._n_932342.html

The reports sound just like that scene from Xenogears. We've never seen anything like this. Anything could happen.

But yeah, definitely a trap.

[Trevor]

Cornered RATS: have you ever played Xenogears, where at the end of the first disk the protagonists infiltrate the religious city-state of Solaris?

nah, never played

Tripoli is like that.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011..._n_932342.html

hmmm...drastic situations brings about drastic measures. you can't see something like this on your usual day. That was act of desperation, if you ask me.

[xerx]

Tripoli has just fallen to the rebels and they've just captured saif al-islam. I hope Pan-Arab nationalists or secularist Pan-Islamic parties gain control of the revolution now; I don't trust radical islamist parties, though, since I associate them with Saudi money, which I associate with the counter-revolution and Western influence.

[Creepy-bg]

Tripoli has just fallen to the rebels and they've just captured saif al-islam. I hope Pan-Arab or secularist Pan-Islamic nationalists gain control of the revolution now; I don't trust radical islamist parties, though, since I associate them with Saudi money, which I associate with the counter-revolution.

is that how it went down in Xenogears?

[xerx]

Tripoli has just fallen to the rebels and they've just captured saif al-islam. I hope Pan-Arab or secularist Pan-Islamic nationalists gain control of the revolution now; I don't trust radical islamist parties, though, since I associate them with Saudi money, which I associate with the counter-revolution.

is that how it went down in Xenogears?

It's in tcaud's expansion pack.

[tcaudilllg]

Tripoli has just fallen to the rebels and they've just captured saif al-islam. I hope Pan-Arab or secularist Pan-Islamic nationalists gain control of the revolution now; I don't trust radical islamist parties, though, since I associate them with Saudi money, which I associate with the counter-revolution.

is that how it went down in Xenogears?

Pretty much.

This is an interesting scenario. There is a possibility that Gadhaffi will surrender in exchange for leniency on behalf of his children. He could hardly save face by turning tail and running with his children in the lurch.

I wonder how they captured him?

[tcaudilllg]

It looks like the inability of Gadhaffi to retaliate against NATO was the decisive factor.

I just don't feel sorry for Gadhaffi. He treated his countrymen like garbage. Don't blame them for rising up.

On the other hand, not so sure the Transitional National Council will do any better. While the risk of international terror infiltration is at a low since the death of Bin Laden, that doesn't mean hardliners won't try to take over, and of course oil is the big deal in Libya.

So now what comes next? I'm thinking the next target is either Syria, or Iran.

Oh, and did you hear Obama is making a long-term base deal with Afghanistan? Love those campaign promises.

A lot of work just to promote Sharia all over the Middle East, don't you think? But it's not about the political situation in those countries... no, it's all about the oil.

As I see it, the Libyans are just trading tyranny by a person for tyranny by impersonal market forces. Either way, it's not real freedom. It's also worth noting that NATO basically has a gun to the leadership's head....

[tcaudilllg]

Reports now that Libya may need international peacekeepers, meaning occupation.

Gadhaffi needs to make a bold, decisive move.

[xerx]

Gadhaffi needs to make a bold, decisive move.

Yeeeaah, I think the only `move` he's making is to his buddy Mugabe's underground bunker.

[tcaudilllg]

No he is fighting. His son Khamis has no surrendered and the regime is trotting out everything it still has.

Gadhaffi is apparently in a hospital... with the amazons.

And I hope they have enough ammunition to gun down everyone who comes for him.

[leckysupport]

Wow, Gaddafi support crumbled fast. Interesting that he didn't see it coming, he might be as delusional and out of touch as he looks.

Rebel technical ingenuity:

[tcaudilllg]

He's still fighting. Zero incentive to give up... he faces certain execution if captured.

[tcaudilllg]

BREAKING: Obama appears to have made the biggest foreign policy blunder since W's WMD claims. The regime IS NOT defeated. It is, in fact, very much still in control and commands the support, apparently, of a sizable portion of the population.

And Saif Gadhafi IS NOT in rebel custody. (that was apparently psy ops)

Brace youselves: the longer Gadhafi holds out, the more likely disgust at the incompetence of NATO leaders will bring his enemies to their knees. The real story of 2011 will not be what happens in the Middle East, but in Europe and America.

[MisterNi]

tcaud, you really should just stop. I'm pretty sure Gadhafi never had a chance with the Nato support that the rebels had. The Syrian people are the real losers here, who're now being brutalized for even thinking about revolt because of what's happening in Libya.

Terrible situation really and just another example of why foreign meddling in the middle east helps no one, except maybe the people supplying the weapons.

[tcaudilllg]

Did some research. Like most Mideast nations, Libya is tribal at its core. Libya is the nation of the Bedouin nomads, from whom Gadhafi is descended. However this is only its modern identity. Unlike most nations of the Mideast, Libya is an artificial composite of three ancient civilizations. The lower civilization was based in the Sahara, and so was not significant. The other two were however, and were rivals for regional power. These nations, Tripolitania in the West and Cyrenceum in the east, had a relationship no better than that of the Hebrews to the Philistines. That's what's really going on, hence hate between the east and the west is ingrained in the country's history. As with Iraq, NATO is going in blind. It's Iraq all over again -- no, it's Lebanon.

So yeah, failed state.

[leckysupport]

Did some research. Like most Mideast nations, Libya is tribal at its core. Libya is the nation of the Bedouin nomads, from whom Gadhafi is descended. However this is only its modern identity. Unlike most nations of the Mideast, Libya is an artificial composite of three ancient civilizations. The lower civilization was based in the Sahara, and so was not significant. The other two were however, and were rivals for regional power. These nations, Tripolitania in the West and Cyrenceum in the east, had a relationship no better than that of the Hebrews to the Philistines. That's what's really going on, hence hate between the east and the west is ingrained in the country's history. As with Iraq, NATO is going in blind. It's Iraq all over again -- no, it's Lebanon.

So yeah, failed state.

Also don't forget about the Berber vs. Arab ethnic tensions and political ideological differences (which jxtres mentioned).

Edit: I don't believe a nation requires a completely unified identity; something which in historical terms is a very modern phenomena/idea.

[MisterNi]

Did some research. Like most Mideast nations, Libya is tribal at its core. Libya is the nation of the Bedouin nomads, from whom Gadhafi is descended. However this is only its modern identity. Unlike most nations of the Mideast, Libya is an artificial composite of three ancient civilizations. The lower civilization was based in the Sahara, and so was not significant. The other two were however, and were rivals for regional power. These nations, Tripolitania in the West and Cyrenceum in the east, had a relationship no better than that of the Hebrews to the Philistines. That's what's really going on, hence hate between the east and the west is ingrained in the country's history. As with Iraq, NATO is going in blind. It's Iraq all over again -- no, it's Lebanon.

So yeah, failed state.

I agree. This is a massive fail by both NATO and the West in general. It seems when the US and/or European nations become involved in the Middle East, they just make everything worse for both national relations and for the people. Hopefully NATO's fail doesn't turn Libya into another Iraq for the US, because this time the US didn't have anything to do with the mess NATO created.

[tcaudilllg]

The plot thickens: Gadhafi is somewhere in the vicinity of Rixos hotel... perhaps even beneath it.

Now of course no one has said anything about it but, read the tea leaves...

This is a fascinating event: the entire American news media is being held hostage. It's the Iranian Embassy all over again...

[MisterNi]

Don't his sons already live in Los Angeles? If he's overthrown I suspect him and his family will just move to the US as exiled royalty.

[tcaudilllg]

Obama wouldn't allow that.

Well the hotel may not be where Gadhafi is staying. It's believed now he's trying to clear a path to Sirte, by fighting for the Tripoli airport. I don't know how he plans to make it there... it's a long way off and apparently the city is besieged. And with those drones in the sky...

[xerx]

Good summary from the economist. http://www.economist.com/node/21526958

Did some research. Like most Mideast nations, Libya is tribal at its core. Libya is the nation of the Bedouin nomads, from whom Gadhafi is descended. However this is only its modern identity. Unlike most nations of the Mideast, Libya is an artificial composite of three ancient civilizations. The lower civilization was based in the Sahara, and so was not significant. The other two were however, and were rivals for regional power. These nations, Tripolitania in the West and Cyrenceum in the east, had a relationship no better than that of the Hebrews to the Philistines. That's what's really going on, hence hate between the east and the west is ingrained in the country's history. As with Iraq, NATO is going in blind. It's Iraq all over again -- no, it's Lebanon.

So yeah, failed state.

Unlike most nations of the Middle East, Egypt is an artificial composite of three ancient civilizations. The western civilization is based in the sahara, and so was not significant. The other two were, however, and were rivals for regional power. These nations, upper Egypt in the Nile valley, and Lower Egypt in the Delta, had a relationship no better than that of the Hebrews to the Philistines. That's what's really going on, hence hate between the north and the south is ingrained in the country's history.

So yeah, failed state.

***

Unlike most nations of Europe, Great Britain is an artificial composite of four ancient civilizations. The western civilization is based in Ireland, and so was not significant. The other three were, however, and were rivals for regional power. These nations, Wales in the West, Scotland in the North and England in the South, had a relationship no better than that of the Hebrews to the Philistines. That's what's really going on, hence hate between the east, west and the north is ingrained in the country's history.

So yeah, failed state.

***

Unlike most nations of North America, the USA is an artificial composite of three ancient civilizations. The South-Western civilization is based in Mexico, and so was not significant. The other two were, however, and were rivals for regional power. These nations, Yankee in the North and Dixie in the South, had a relationship no better than that of the Hebrews to the Philistines. That's what's really going on, hence hate between the north and the south is ingrained in the country's history.

So yeah, failed state.

[xerx]

Tripoli has just fallen to the rebels and they've just captured saif al-islam. I hope Pan-Arab nationalists or secularist Pan-Islamic parties gain control of the revolution now; I don't trust radical islamist parties, though, since I associate them with Saudi money, which I associate with the counter-revolution and Western influence.

I should probably clarify, that although I'd generally trust secularists more than islamists, some radical Islamist parties ( however much I might loathe them for carrying out sectarian agendas ) are so radical as to be pro-independence and anti-imperialist, and get my support on that basis alone vs the liberals that would sell out their homeland to foreign powers.

[Trevor]

http://panafricannews.blogspot.com/2...oject-and.html

On 22 July this year, four months into the air strikes to “protect civilians”, NATO forces hit the GMMR water supply pipeline. For good measure the following day, NATO destroyed the factory near Brega that produces the pipes to repair it, along with killing six guards there.

[tcaudilllg]

This is why riots are coming to the united states.

Today there was an article on MSNBC describing the growth in gun ownership under Obama. 15 million guns sold last year alone.

And only hours ago, the DoD chastised the other members of NATO for not buying war tech developed by American companies.

http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaN...7840JJ20110905

That is what is turning the tide. It's a conservative wave over the entire world, beginning in the United States and spreading outward.