Welcome to the Post Peak-Oil World

[Rick]

A world where fewer and fewer people fly, and their radius of travel shrinks. A world where electric cars are "on the brink" of replacing gasoline, but nobody has money to buy them. A world where the invisible hand of the market -- or is it the government? -- failed to step in at just the right moment to save the day. A world where people walk away from houses bought just a few years earlier and move in with relatives. A world where domestic politics is dominated by food and fuel prices. A world where college grads find the jobs they trained for no longer exist. A world where people refuse to accept that things have changed and insist that the glory days could have been preserved if it weren't for the politics of party X or Y, or of politician Z. A world where the U.S. is increasingly irrelevant outside of North America and arouses pity among Europeans. A world where Africans are aggressively desperate to get to Europe, and Europeans aggressively defensive. A world where free-market capitalism becomes the butt of jokes, and economists slowly realize they have been taught an ideology, not a science. A world where people increasingly escape into the dream world of the Internet and entertainment and give up traditional ambitions. A world of growing separatism within the U.S. and helpless and comical Federal government. A world where the values of the past 200 years are overturned, but legislation is not adapted to the new reality and a whole generation passes before new institutions and legislation are instated that are adequate for the new conditions.

[Slacker]

A world where it costs $50 to fill up my tank! And I used to be a news junkie and I don't read or watch the news anymore. Pointless.

[Gilly]

SHIT

EVERYTHING SUCKS

[tcaudilllg]

A world where fewer and fewer people fly, and their radius of travel shrinks. A world where electric cars are "on the brink" of replacing gasoline, but nobody has money to buy them. A world where the invisible hand of the market -- or is it the government? -- failed to step in at just the right moment to save the day. A world where people walk away from houses bought just a few years earlier and move in with relatives. A world where domestic politics is dominated by food and fuel prices. A world where college grads find the jobs they trained for no longer exist. A world where people refuse to accept that things have changed and insist that the glory days could have been preserved if it weren't for the politics of party X or Y, or of politician Z. A world where the U.S. is increasingly irrelevant outside of North America and arouses pity among Europeans. A world where Africans are aggressively desperate to get to Europe, and Europeans aggressively defensive. A world where free-market capitalism becomes the butt of jokes, and economists slowly realize they have been taught an ideology, not a science. A world where people increasingly escape into the dream world of the Internet and entertainment and give up traditional ambitions. A world of growing separatism within the U.S. and helpless and comical Federal government. A world where the values of the past 200 years are overturned, but legislation is not adapted to the new reality and a whole generation passes before new institutions and legislation are instated that are adequate for the new conditions.

You may be on to something here. But tell me: if people are retreating into entertainment, then how can they be arguing over government enough to create separatist movements?

[Gilly]

You may be on to something here. But tell me: if people are retreating into entertainment, then how can they be arguing over government enough to create separatist movements?

Because there's a fuckton of people?

[munenori2]

lol

Maybe 2012 is fo real, y'all.

[tcaudilllg]

Because there's a fuckton of people?

You're not seeing the big picture. The two directions are mutually exclusive. There is a divide amongst the people and they are going in two directions.

[Gilly]

You're not seeing the big picture. The two directions are mutually exclusive. There is a divide amongst the people and they are going in two directions.

You know, despite common counter-culture dogma, people are not complete sheep.

[Exodus]

Rick, what do you think about the Canadian oil resources? Is it not true that with current technology there is enough accessible oil in the oil sands to meet the needs of the economy, albeit at a somewhat increased price? A friend of mine pointed out that Canada is already one of the biggest exporters of oil to the U.S.

[Rick]

Rick, what do you think about the Canadian oil resources? Is it not true that with current technology there is enough accessible oil in the oil sands to meet the needs of the economy, albeit at a somewhat increased price? A friend of mine pointed out that Canada is already one of the biggest exporters of oil to the U.S.

Canadian oil can't prevent gas prices from reaching $4 and $5. It can only put it off ever so slightly. Plus, other countries want it too, so it's sold for the same (nearly the same) price as all the other oil. Buying it just puts the U.S. more in debt, which hastens the coming financial collapse. Oil supply has already dropped below world demand and will continue to fall, despite Canadian oil. So the ethanol industry steps in to cover some of the needs. But even if the whole country were planted in corn and harvested for ethanol alone, it couldn't cover the nation's needs. Ethanol production makes food prices rise, stimulating revolts in poor countries.

If Canadian oil "could" prevent what I describe, it would already be preventing it and events would be heading in a different direction. But that's not what we are seeing.

[Exodus]

Canadian oil can't prevent gas prices from reaching $4 and $5.

Ok, but gas is already that expensive in other countries. I suppose the U.S. might collapse financially due to expectation of growth, but the kind of post-technological transportationless scenario you've written about seems less likely, no?

[Slacker]

My husband and I used to take this peak oil stuff very seriously, but I'm not sure if I really think things are going to get as bad as I heard a few years ago. We had a second kid anyway, but we also paid off all debt and didn't get a bigger house when we had the second kid. We covered all bases. I guess not having debt is good regardless of whether the world collapses or whatever.

I still want an iPad.

[717495]

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911

[FDG]

your messianic tone is annoying. take it from someone who doesn't own a car, tries to use bike + public transport as much as he can, and has voted the green party. so if I think it's annoying, it really must be.

[Crispy]

Problem:

A world where fewer and fewer people fly, and their radius of travel shrinks. A world where electric cars are "on the brink" of replacing gasoline, but nobody has money to buy them. A world where the invisible hand of the market -- or is it the government? -- failed to step in at just the right moment to save the day. A world where people walk away from houses bought just a few years earlier and move in with relatives. A world where domestic politics is dominated by food and fuel prices. A world where college grads find the jobs they trained for no longer exist. A world where people refuse to accept that things have changed and insist that the glory days could have been preserved if it weren't for the politics of party X or Y, or of politician Z. A world where the U.S. is increasingly irrelevant outside of North America and arouses pity among Europeans. A world where Africans are aggressively desperate to get to Europe, and Europeans aggressively defensive. A world where free-market capitalism becomes the butt of jokes, and economists slowly realize they have been taught an ideology, not a science. A world where people increasingly escape into the dream world of the Internet and entertainment and give up traditional ambitions. A world of growing separatism within the U.S. and helpless and comical Federal government. A world where the values of the past 200 years are overturned, but legislation is not adapted to the new reality and a whole generation passes before new institutions and legislation are instated that are adequate for the new conditions.

Solution:
http://www.thevenusproject.com/

[krieger]

http://www.thevenusproject.com/

what are their short term solutions..?

[Rick]

Ok, but gas is already that expensive in other countries. I suppose the U.S. might collapse financially due to expectation of growth, but the kind of post-technological transportationless scenario you've written about seems less likely, no?

I'm describing above the trend for the next 10-20 years. Of course, existing fuel supplies in Canada and the U.S. itself are sufficient to power the "actual needs" of the economy, though that's a kind of abstraction. The problem is that a large amount of rebuilding needs to take place to allow the economy to function well on a much lower fuel supply, and there's not enough energy (money, resources) available to undertake the rebuilding. I'm not prepared to say what kinds of transportation will be in use in 20 years, but it seems almost certain that the West Coast will seem much further from the eastern half of the U.S. than it has in the past 100 years. I'm also uncertain as to how industries will manage at downsizing. In other words, will the airline industry be able to gracefully downsize and offer basically the same services as today, but with far fewer flights, or will it simply collapse and be unable to offer any services at all because of financial issues.

At some hypothetical level of gas prices a mandatory restructuring of society will take place. The threshold for the U.S. is lower than for Europe because our infrastructure is more automobile-exclusive. It seems likely that prices above $4 and certainly $5 a gallon will initiate another round of the financial and real estate crisis.

your messianic tone is annoying. take it from someone who doesn't own a car, tries to use bike + public transport as much as he can, and has voted the green party. so if I think it's annoying, it really must be.

I'm sympathetic, but there's really no messianic tone here, and I'm not suggesting any solutions or political action, or even personal action. I don't own a car either, but I'm still far from a "model ecoconscious citizen," which I don't aspire to be because it's impractical until the economic incentives change on a large scale (where I am at the given moment). I personally love to travel and fly often. I buy goods that are tossed out and not recycled, and contribute through my personal habits to pollution, land degradation, and global warming. I'm not preaching anything here, just giving my prognosis for the foreseeable future. My dramatism is because the moment itself is dramatic; it's a historical inflection point in many different ways. Sorry, my background is the U.S. where it is still a battle just to get people to acknowledge things that are already beyond obvious to most Europeans.

[Rick]

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911

My bad. I guess nothing will change after all.

New prognosis: oil prices will drop back down to $1-2/gallon, the U.S. will once again become the world's top oil producer, exporting oil to China, India and other countries and pushing down world oil prices, the trade deficit will be reversed, the national debt gradually paid off, people will stay in their homes and continue driving their cars. The first-ever drop in car ownership in 2009 will turn out to have been a 2-year blip. Car sales will rise once again, miles traveled will resume and the economy will resume its former growth. The job market will pick up again, unemployment will fall to 4%, everyone will get back their corporate jobs, college grads will once again make great money and have no problem paying off their college debts, U.S. funding of R&D will jump again, the silent capital flow out of the U.S. will reverse, government will operate once more on a balanced budget, and a powerful and efficient national government and military will continue to secure the U.S.'s dominant economic and military position. Crisis averted!

[Crispy]

what are their short term solutions..?

Currently activism and the spread of ideas and knowledge about the current world situation (not really solutions). I'm pretty sure it's the long term solution that matters most however

[tcaudilllg]

My bad. I guess nothing will change after all.

New prognosis: oil prices will drop back down to $1-2/gallon, the U.S. will once again become the world's top oil producer, exporting oil to China, India and other countries and pushing down world oil prices, the trade deficit will be reversed, the national debt gradually paid off, people will stay in their homes and continue driving their cars. The first-ever drop in car ownership in 2009 will turn out to have been a 2-year blip. Car sales will rise once again, miles traveled will resume and the economy will resume its former growth. The job market will pick up again, unemployment will fall to 4%, everyone will get back their corporate jobs, college grads will once again make great money and have no problem paying off their college debts, U.S. funding of R&D will jump again, the silent capital flow out of the U.S. will reverse, government will operate once more on a balanced budget, and a powerful and efficient national government and military will continue to secure the U.S.'s dominant economic and military position. Crisis averted!

Rick there is nothing wrong with fighting for the environment; but when your lead spokesperson is making a $100 million dollars off his talk of "peak oil", it pays to be a little skeptical.

[Rick]

Rick there is nothing wrong with fighting for the environment; but when your lead spokesperson is making a $100 million dollars off his talk of "peak oil", it pays to be a little skeptical.

Okay, but what's your own conclusion then, beyond being skeptical? Surely there is enough information available from different sources to form at least a tentative opinion on the matter.

1) There are no physical limitations on oil extraction, which will increase indefinitely; thus Peak Oil will never occur. (uhhh... if anyone believes that I just don't know what to say
2) Peak Oil was not in 2006/2007 (that was just a temporary downswing caused by reasons unrelated to actual extractable oil supply), but will occur in, say, 2020 or 2030.
3) Peak Oil may have occurred already or might still be in the future, but it will actually not cause any significant societal upheaval for the following reasons: A, B, C...

Note that even conclusions 2 and 3 acknowledge the inevitability of Peak Oil, questioning only the date and/or the severity of the ripple effects.

What spokesman are you referring to, by the way? For anyone who follows the subject of Peak Oil with any depth, the primary information source on the subject is not some person out there who speaks to the masses, but probably the excellent site http://theoildrum.com/ which is run by quite an intelligent group of people. The site has no advertising on it, just a "donate" button. You can read about the editorial board at http://www.theoildrum.com/special/about and the site goals at http://www.theoildrum.com/special/mission . The articles also do not contain much, if any, fear-mongering. Plus, the accuracy of information in articles can be checked fairly easily against reliable news and agency sources. To me this smacks neither of vested interests, career making, political ties, nor behind-the-scenes corporate funding. Here's the Wikipedia article on the site: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Oil_Drum .

[Skeptic]

Oil is really unnecessary, there exist a myriad of other ways to power the giant transportation complex throughout the world. There exist fuel sources (for trans vehicles) made from water, ethanol, natural gas, oil from plants (even marijuana! ), electricity and so forth. We will probably be taking advantage of these mediums when the oil industry recognizes that transitioning to those fuels will bring it more profit, i.e. when it becomes apparent that oil prices are too high for consumers to buy.

Yeah, people will still die in Africa, US will still be imperialist fascist blablabla but there will be no economic or environmental collapse any time soon. I've heard 2030 as a guess by someone somewhere as a time when economic and environmental problems will converge and create a synergistic outcome, but it really does not make sense that peak oil will even be remotely connected to said crisis if it does occur.

Oh and the venus project has all the sustainable solutions to OP ^^

[tcaudilllg]

2030 2030 first the "singularity" now some huge "confluence of crises". Sounds like someone is deliberately trying to create something "big" in 2030, or make people believe that the year has some sort of significance (probably for some sorta power/money scheme).

That guy I was talking about is Matt Simmons, the lead expert on peak oil, I believe the person who proposed the economic side of the theory. He's an economist. He spoke to congress in 2008, I believe. I really don't think oil is being extracted fast enough to create a "peak" any time soon. In fact, production seems about even with the growth of markets -- population, not supply failure, will create the oil crisis of the future. When
demand rises faster than immediate capacity, then we'll see... probably market shutouts and rationing.

There are lots of crazy kooks out there (flat earth society, anyone?) who will create far out theories which gain a lot of interest because they seem to propose a sense of crisis and a call for heroes. Some people want to be heroes as a way of creating an external perception of themselves that matches their own imaginary selves. So you see everyone chipping in to try to explore this "could be" crisis. But usually there are reasoning errors, fallacies on which these movements are actually built, usually having to do with probability estimation error.

[Gilly]

Currently activism and the spread of ideas and knowledge about the current world situation (not really solutions). I'm pretty sure it's the long term solution that matters most however

There IS no long-term solution without a short term one, though.

[Rick]

Oil is really unnecessary, there exist a myriad of other ways to power the giant transportation complex throughout the world. There exist fuel sources (for trans vehicles) made from water, ethanol, natural gas, oil from plants (even marijuana! ), electricity and so forth. We will probably be taking advantage of these mediums when the oil industry recognizes that transitioning to those fuels will bring it more profit, i.e. when it becomes apparent that oil prices are too high for consumers to buy.

Yeah, people will still die in Africa, US will still be imperialist fascist blablabla but there will be no economic or environmental collapse any time soon. I've heard 2030 as a guess by someone somewhere as a time when economic and environmental problems will converge and create a synergistic outcome, but it really does not make sense that peak oil will even be remotely connected to said crisis if it does occur.

Oh and the venus project has all the sustainable solutions to OP ^^

Thanks for the post. I'm not trying to disprove you here, but how do you envision that the current financial bottleneck will be overcome (particularly in the U.S.)? In other words, how will a debtor nation full of cash-strapped and near-bankrupt citizens undertake the infrastructure changes necessary to allow for all these solutions to be implemented? Do you think the economy will just putter along until the technological breakthrough is made, and then everything will pick up again?

Oil companies are well aware of the state of oil reserves. Do you know of any signs that they are preparing substitutes and will be able to begin implementing them when oil reaches $4 or $5 a gallon?

The Venus Project requires massive investments in infrastructure development to be realized, in addition to other conditions.

[Beautiful sky]

Rick, have you learned how to type people yet? Well, just take a few pointers from the people who DO know...Christopher Reeve, for the BILIIONTH time I am mentioning to you is NOT LSE type, he's SLE type. There is nowhere in his writing/bio or auto bio or his interviews in which he discusses HOW to do things offers suggestions of this kind.

[Absurd]

Yea Rick, is it ethical to type a guy who drinks oil LSE ?

Tsk-tsk.

[Rick]

I really don't think oil is being extracted fast enough to create a "peak" any time soon. In fact, production seems about even with the growth of markets -- population, not supply failure, will create the oil crisis of the future. When
demand rises faster than immediate capacity, then we'll see... probably market shutouts and rationing.

There are lots of crazy kooks out there (flat earth society, anyone?) who will create far out theories which gain a lot of interest because they seem to propose a sense of crisis and a call for heroes. Some people want to be heroes as a way of creating an external perception of themselves that matches their own imaginary selves. So you see everyone chipping in to try to explore this "could be" crisis. But usually there are reasoning errors, fallacies on which these movements are actually built, usually having to do with probability estimation error.

Fair enough — this certainly does take place, but I'm not sure you have researched Peak Oil enough to identify the fallacies, if any.

In the case of oil production, we have the historical production numbers both for the world and for specific regions, we have reserve estimates, we have data on new oil reserves discovered and their size, we have data on world oil prices, and we have rough figures for the energy required for extraction of different categories of oil at different stages of exhaustion. These five sets of data should be sufficient for any objective intelligent observer to put together a reasonable forecast for future oil production.

As you can see from the analysis at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7258, "world oil production is unlikely to rise by much, and may fall in ways that are hard to predict in advance."

The reason I am reasonably confident in stating that peak production is behind us is that we are still below the peak production of 2008 and prices have already risen back into the zone recognized as being economically threatening for the U.S. That means that if prices rise much further, they will cause another recessionary wave, demand for oil will drop because of reduced economic activity, then oil prices will fall, etc. etc. This is what has been predicted by Peak Oil theorists, and so far we are following their scenario. The only way out of it would be if prices fell back to levels more like $20-60/barrel AND production increased, surpassing the 2008 peak. Looking at the data, that doesn't seem likely.

[Crispy]

There IS no long-term solution without a short term one, though.

Found where Peter Joseph talks about the hypothetical transition:
Starts at 7:04 here:


Continues here:


As an aside, any guesses on Peter's type?

[discojoe]

The price of oil is rising because of inflation.

[jughead]

There goes DJ again, saying one factoid while not addressing the root causes besides "inflation" to advance his own views as if they were accepted and worshipped by us all. Oh and the above debate about all that peak oil doesn't exist because DJ can't see it.
180 days for 3.6 billion barrels of oil for Us consumption of 20 million barrels a day.(2007 level)

[Rick]

Found where Peter Joseph talks about the hypothetical transition:

I wish this kind of world were possible, but I see a number of fundamental fallacies behind the idea.

1. The reason we consume more than we need to is because of manipulation.
2. It is culture that is primarily responsible for the wasteful, unjust society we currently live in.
3. This culture can be changed through increasing awareness.
4. We can build big metal structures on land and in the sea and rely on mechanized production and have a sustainable economy.

There may be others, too.

The first three fallacies come from ignoring the biological basis for competitive behavior and superfluous consumption. He tries to address these during the second video, but I find his attempt unconvincing. Basically, he's saying we can overcome millenia of competition in our culture if we just get everyone to rise to a higher plane of consciousness where we all see each other as brothers. Fat chance! And that's the key condition that the success of the entire endeavor hinges upon. The fourth fallacy comes from naivete or ignorance about things like material degradation. It takes continual inputs of energy to maintain such structures against chemical weathering and the elements.

This is a techno-utopia relying on motivational ideology that suffers from fallacies when viewed through a scientific lens.

[Rick]

Not the best articles ever, but a few countries seem to have begun to experience Peak Oil scenarios: Cuba and Japan

http://www.triplepundit.com/2010/09/...over-20-years/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...aster-peak-oil

I disagree slightly with the author of the second article. I think countries will go through this one by one rather than all together. One could probably come up with a pretty good guess of the order in which countries will reach this point based on what proportion of their oil is imported. Then, all it takes is "one little thing" like an earthquake, collapse of some distant country, major hurricane, etc. to trigger an irreversible domino effect of changes in the economy.

Countries that are further down in the list (i.e. more stable for now) probably include Russia, Canada, Norway, and any other oil exporters who aren't politically unstable and subject to external military control.

I honestly don't know where the U.S. is, and I can't figure out yet whether it's in a better or worse position than Europe. It has more of many kinds of resources per capita and a lower population density, but seems to be quite handicapped infrastructurally.

At any rate, I believe we will see a lot more of this unfold in the next decade.

[Crispy]

I wish this kind of world were possible, but I see a number of fundamental fallacies behind the idea.

1. The reason we consume more than we need to is because of manipulation.
2. It is culture that is primarily responsible for the wasteful, unjust society we currently live in.
3. This culture can be changed through increasing awareness.
4. We can build big metal structures on land and in the sea and rely on mechanized production and have a sustainable economy.

There may be others, too.

The first three fallacies come from ignoring the biological basis for competitive behavior and superfluous consumption. He tries to address these during the second video, but I find his attempt unconvincing. Basically, he's saying we can overcome millenia of competition in our culture if we just get everyone to rise to a higher plane of consciousness where we all see each other as brothers. Fat chance! And that's the key condition that the success of the entire endeavor hinges upon. The fourth fallacy comes from naivete or ignorance about things like material degradation. It takes continual inputs of energy to maintain such structures against chemical weathering and the elements.

This is a techno-utopia relying on motivational ideology that suffers from fallacies when viewed through a scientific lens.

The lectures he gives are of limited time. Most if not all of the issues in this quote are addressed (Quite sufficiently I might add) elsewhere in The Venus Project's material: to start off here's an FAQ that can answer most of the fundamental questions regarding how this world can come about in the very near future, if not today: http://www.thevenusproject.com/en/th...troduction/faq

[krieger]

I disagree slightly with the author of the second article. I think countries will go through this one by one rather than all together.

yes, but what complicates things is that every time a localized crash occurs, the rest of the locales benefits from the newly created demand vacuum. in this way, peak oil is going to oversee a lot of wealth displacement. it turns economics into more of a zero-sum game. it may very well be that there will ultimately never be an event that is uniquely identified as "the peak oil crash". peak oil is more of a phenomenon that looms in the background, exacerbating a lot of problems and being the last straw in their ultimate precipitation, afterwards receding again as if it had never been there.

another thing to keep in mind is that localized crashes don't necessarily need to target nations or geographical regions. sectors of the world economy can succumb under supply strain. the sub-prime market may well have been an example.

One could probably come up with a pretty good guess of the order in which countries will reach this point based on what proportion of their oil is imported. Then, all it takes is "one little thing" like an earthquake, collapse of some distant country, major hurricane, etc. to trigger an irreversible domino effect of changes in the economy.

another thing to look out for is leverage. anything far in debt, relative to it's income, is suspect. the complication here is that it is not exclusively the debtor that is in trouble. it's the creditor to that debt that won't be receiving their paycheck. the debtor mainly comes under political threat from not meeting their obligations, but this threat is weakened by the fact that the creditor is suffering.

0.02$

[mirrorsoul]

I think that we have plenty of alternatives to oil for energy generation. Nuclear, coal, solar, wind, natural gas... a lot of things. I've ridden in buses that are powered by LNG, and used electric rail systems. As far as energy generation goes, I'm not convinced that oil is the only way to go.

What I'm really worried about are all the products that rely on oil for their production, like plastics and such.

I can honestly say that I do not want to live in a world where the technology I've grown accustomed to is no longer available. I will never be happy in such a world, after having known this one... I like the idea of travel, and of being connected to the rest of the world. I don't want to be trapped...

I really want a solution to the oil problem, and I don't understand why we can't replace it.

[FDG]

How can you use Japan as an example of what post-peak oil would be, considering that it has been hit by a major natural disaster? That seems preposterous.

and used electric rail systems.

Oftentimes powered by either fossil fuels or nuclear energy.

[Bluenoir]

I can honestly say that I do not want to live in a world where the technology I've grown accustomed to is no longer available. I will never be happy in such a world.

You should try camping. I used to to on 10 day plus camping trips to Morton Island once every year. No electricity ect, you actualy get used to it very quick. Some of the best times of my life were on that island.

Gasp, no TV or internet

[FDG]

You should try camping. I used to to on 10 day plus camping trips to Morton Island once every year. No electricity ect, you actualy get used to it very quick. Some of the best times of my life were on that island.

Gasp, no TV or internet

Yeah well, tv or internet isn't a big deal. The real problem comes when you have to deal with freezing water for showering and/or cleaning, and no light during winter. Especially the latter, I'd say, since you can get used to cold water.

[Bluenoir]

Yeah well, tv or internet isn't a big deal. The real problem comes when you have to deal with freezing water for showering and/or cleaning, and no light during winter. Especially the latter, I'd say, since you can get used to cold water.

Thats a good point. However, it's still good to get away from modern society once and awhile.