Your opinion.
Your opinion.
"Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat."
--Theodore Roosevelt
"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
-- Mark Twain
"Man who stand on hill with mouth open will wait long time for roast duck to drop in."
-- Confucius
very unlikely. Infact I'm skeptical it will ever rebound to where it was.
Things change and not all change is bad.
-
Dual type (as per tcaudilllg)
Enneagram 5 (wings either 4 or 6)?
I'm constantly looking to align the real with the ideal.I've been more oriented toward being overly idealistic by expecting the real to match the ideal. My thinking side is dominent. The result is that sometimes I can be overly impersonal or self-centered in my approach, not being understanding of others in the process and simply thinking "you should do this" or "everyone should follor this rule"..."regardless of how they feel or where they're coming from"which just isn't a good attitude to have. It is a way, though, to give oneself an artificial sense of self-justification. LSE
Best description of functions:
http://socionicsstudy.blogspot.com/2...functions.html
Significant recoveries are being made around the world, but not in the United States, mainly due to the economic "stimulus" that will only deepen the recession and possibly cause a depression.
Discojoe is correct. History speaks for itself in this matter. The policies of interventionism created the conditions for the current crisis, they will surely serve only to prolong and deepen its impact.
Yes but so did the Obama package. (too many, probably)
I'll look into this later today, but I'm pretty sure that the Obama tax cuts were just a bunch of "fuzzy math" misleading bullshit.
As I understand, US economy is growing right now. So, hasn't it already rebounded? What do you consider as a rebound?
Obsequium amicos, veritas odium parit
It's going to be a depression.
"Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat."
--Theodore Roosevelt
"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
-- Mark Twain
"Man who stand on hill with mouth open will wait long time for roast duck to drop in."
-- Confucius
I don't think the economy will recover next year. I think it could take a good three to five years, maybe even more, to see any real economic upswing in the United States.
I see this as a cycle, too, and I agree that the economic stimulus is a problem. To me, it's a double-edged sword, maybe. Because so much propping up has been done--particularly of the real-estate market--things are more confusing than ever. When things get this confusing and no one can see clearly what will happen next owing to tampering, the economy can't grow. People wait, people wonder. They take no chances. They don't invest. They don't start new ventures. They limit hiring. And so on.
And when we know that the economy is not behaving in a "natural" way but is being propped up, the underlying and scary question is, "What will happen if the props are removed?" The answer is pretty negative.
Just an IEI wandering through with her probably useless opinions on ... the economy! This is based on living in California for the past six years. Cali remains deeply economically troubled overall.
See that's the problem. You're not supposed to consider the stimulus, you're not supposed to see it as a part of the economy. You're supposed to look at its effect. You're not supposed to try to game the system or hedge your bets on government intervention because that's unethical. And that's the problem still: the business community is still as unethical as ever.
I think it has to do with LIEs thinking they have something over the IEIs.
What they need to do is raise the taxes on the rich already, because that will wake them up from their fantasies of government bailouts for their millions very quickly. Once they see that government intervention means they make LESS money, they will stop thinking in terms of it very quickly.
This is called deflation and it's a part of the cycle of recovering from busts. But you're wrong that the economy can not grow. You're dead wrong that investment doesn't happen at all. While you will see a short-term slump in sales and final output from reduced spending, you're ignoring capital goods -- and especially early stage capital goods that are time-consuming to produce. In a recession, the interest rates are lower, and so borrowing costs are lower. So people can begin investing in long-term production and bring them to the market by the time people are ready to begin consuming again. Remember: People don't save for fun, they save for future consumption.
So more savings -> more net investment at the early stage -> more consumption. . . over time. The resources previously tied up in late stage production -- goods that are near market, like retail inventories -- are simply reallocated to goods in an early stage of production -- like concept design or research and development. Basically what happens is consumption then increases, meeting and even exceeding previous levels, with gross investment growing exponentially with the rest, and voila! You have sustainable growth. That is, investment backed by real savings that translates into the consumption of marketable goods produced.
This is an extremely -- I mean extremely -- terse summary of what Friedrich von Hayek devoted a series of lectures to (later turned into a book, Prices and Production {1931}), and is integral to Austrian trade cycle theory. Ugh, FDG, help me out here lol. Where the fuck is Roger Garrison when you need him?
Negative in the short-term, perhaps, but the long-term growth is unimaginably massive, and fast.
If the economy rebounds, Dennis Rodman will grab it!
ILE "Searcher"
Socionics: ENTp
DCNH: Dominant --> perhaps Normalizing
Enneagram: 7w6 "Enthusiast"
MBTI: ENTJ "Field Marshall" or ENTP "Inventor"
Astrological sign: Aquarius
To learn, read. To know, write. To master, teach.
Thanks, CP. I'm for sure NOT an economics expert. I read various things on the topic. I'm very concerned about the depth of the problems in California. There are some regions there, including the area I have been living in until recently, that are not going to recover easily. But in some of those cases, the bubble itself formed quickly, like a secondary bubble in response to pressures in other regions, and popped hard.
Always happy to learn more ...
But I agree that stimulus cannot bring back jobs. The situation is more complex than a simple tax cut though because in the situation we have a case that we didn't have before, where the crisis was intentionally created by a group with the intent to manipulate social conditions. Therefore by giving the "job creators" money we are rewarding their creation of the recession. This means they have incentive to create more recessions.
The rich cannot be rewarded. They must be punished.
LII-Ne
"Come to think of it, there are already a million monkeys on a million typewriters, and the Usenet is NOTHING like Shakespeare!"
- Blair Houghton
Johari
Punishment only works when the person being punished sees it as actually arising from their actions. Hence why inconsistent punishment is fairly useless...
LII-Ne
"Come to think of it, there are already a million monkeys on a million typewriters, and the Usenet is NOTHING like Shakespeare!"
- Blair Houghton
Johari
Socialism is how you win.
-
Dual type (as per tcaudilllg)
Enneagram 5 (wings either 4 or 6)?
I'm constantly looking to align the real with the ideal.I've been more oriented toward being overly idealistic by expecting the real to match the ideal. My thinking side is dominent. The result is that sometimes I can be overly impersonal or self-centered in my approach, not being understanding of others in the process and simply thinking "you should do this" or "everyone should follor this rule"..."regardless of how they feel or where they're coming from"which just isn't a good attitude to have. It is a way, though, to give oneself an artificial sense of self-justification. LSE
Best description of functions:
http://socionicsstudy.blogspot.com/2...functions.html
ILE "Searcher"
Socionics: ENTp
DCNH: Dominant --> perhaps Normalizing
Enneagram: 7w6 "Enthusiast"
MBTI: ENTJ "Field Marshall" or ENTP "Inventor"
Astrological sign: Aquarius
To learn, read. To know, write. To master, teach.
The reason the economy has NOT rebounded in the past two years I can illustrate with two real life first hand knowledge examples.
I was on a business trip a few weeks ago and I was asking one of the owners of the business I was visiting how things have been. Terrible two years ago and they had to lay off a bunch of people, but stabilizing and picking up in the past year. They were at the point where they were considering hiring back some of the people that they had laid off before, but were too afraid to having NO IDEA how all of the recently passed laws were going to affect them. There's nothing worse for small business owners or for any business than having to lay off employees. This particular business relied on an external accounting firm to handle their books and everything, and even they hadn't managed to sort out the gigantic mess that the current administration has created with all of their highly interventionalist new laws. So they're in a holding pattern. Good or bad, the fear of unintended consequences and not knowing WTF is really happening is preventing businesses from trying to expand because for all they know they're going to get nailed with a ton more taxes or their health care plans will go FUBAR and they just don't want to deal with it.
Case #2. The company my wife works for wants to expand. A particular type of service in our area is really lacking and there's definitely money to be made. Problem is, in order to expand they need to construct a new facility to offer the services, and they can't secure the financing they need. Why is that? Perhaps because a highly interventionalist government has sucked in excess of 1 TRILLION dollars out of the financial markets, which makes it really hard for other businesses or people to get financing of their own. And we all know how successful our government has been at actually creating jobs with that 1 friggin trillion dollars, so what good has it done?
History is repeating itself. The Great Depression was only the Great Depression and not just a temporary recession because very BAD government policies prolonged things and only made them a lot worse. Fast forward to 2009 and it's the same shit, different day. Government needs to get the hell out of the way and stop trying to "fix" things.
Regardless of whether the Republicans take over none, one, or both houses of Congress in the elections next month, I think these liberal socialist Democrats are going to be marginalized enough that they'll be impotent. Making ALL of the Bush tax cuts permanent won't punish small businesses and will encourage them to consider hiring again, repealing the health care takeover will lessen fears on that (even our politicians don't know exactly what's in it!!), and returning unspent 'stimulus' funds to the market will make it available for other businesses, like my wife's, so that they can expand.
Te-INTp/ILI, my wife: Fi-ISFj/ESI, with laser beam death rays for ESTp/SLEs, lol
16 years of bliss in an Activity relationship
Last edited by consentingadult; 10-09-2010 at 12:45 PM.
“I have never tried that before, so I think I should definitely be able to do that.” --- Pippi Longstocking