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Thread: The Hiring Freeze

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    Default The Hiring Freeze

    The numbers are in, and its < 100k new jobs for the second consecutive month.

    This is not supposed to happen. Something is wrong. The question is, what?

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    Ashton can't prove that thesis, simply on account of hiring being brisk in the past. Government has nothing to do with it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tcaudilllg View Post
    Ashton can't prove that thesis, simply on account of hiring being brisk in the past. Government has nothing to do with it.
    Government, and only government, is the cause of all of our economic problems. Have fun being totally and tragically divorced from reality, Mister Can't Understand Simple Cause-And-Effect Relationships.

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    Doesn't anyone here have anything useful to say? (granted we all know Ashton and Discojoe are famously removed from the mainstream).

    My guess on what is happening is this: there has been a general push towards thinking about difficult-to-change things in the national discourse. (hell, in the West in general) I suspect that through the flurry of surveys and a number of other theories, business leaders have ascertained that their markets are of finite size given their product focus. (a correct observation, as per the existence of EM types) But more than that, people are increasingly trying to become of one mind about things -- this leads to similar conclusions and reduced emotional distance. Which in turn leads to cooperation. "I won't hurt you if you won't hurt me" -- or better yet, "If I don't compete against Mr. X, he probably won't compete against me. Because like me, he just wants to survive." A survivalist mentality is overcoming business, but its a social rather than antipathetic phenomena.

    In other words, these numbers are a sign of a new concept of oligarchy.
    Last edited by tcaudilllg; 06-30-2010 at 10:09 PM.

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    This is good shit.
    But, for a certainty, back then,
    We loved so many, yet hated so much,
    We hurt others and were hurt ourselves...

    Yet even then, we ran like the wind,
    Whilst our laughter echoed,
    Under cerulean skies...

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    Quote Originally Posted by tcaudilllg View Post
    Doesn't anyone here have anything useful to say? (granted we all know Ashton and Discojoe are famously removed from the mainstream).

    My guess on what is happening is this: there has been a general push towards thinking about difficult-to-change things in the national discourse. (hell, in the West in general) I suspect that through the flurry of surveys and a number of other theories, business leaders have ascertained that their markets are of finite size given their product focus. (a correct observation, as per the existence of EM types) But more than that, people are increasingly trying to become of one mind about things -- this leads to similar conclusions and reduced emotional distance. Which in turn leads to cooperation. "I won't hurt you if you won't hurt me" -- or better yet, "If I don't compete against Mr. X, he probably won't compete against me. Because like me, he just wants to survive." A survivalist mentality is overcoming business, but its a social rather than antipathetic phenomena.

    In other words, these numbers are a sign of a new concept of oligarchy.
    What I've always been fascinated by is the utter lack of justification for your existence. Everything you say is so fragmented from consequential reality that it seems like the Universe should be actively working to have you killed, ala Final Destination.

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    Quote Originally Posted by discojoe View Post
    What I've always been fascinated by is the utter lack of justification for your existence. Everything you say is so fragmented from consequential reality that it seems like the Universe should be actively working to have you killed, ala Final Destination.
    Silly Discojoe.

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    Mainstream people don't talk about stuff like this.

    I'm more inclined to view it as a natural economic cycle - that is, boom times cause the recessions that follow, and vice-versa. That's how it was in Railroad Tycoon, anyway.



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    We only had like 3 years of boom last time.

    What's strange is that two months ago 350k jobs were added, and since then its flatlined. It makes no sense.

    I think the problem is that the credit crunch is keeping more people from entering the market, which means that capital control is static. So to say, the barriers to entry are too high. The Fortune 500 companies have all survived by cutting workers ... but nonetheless, they have survived and remain profitable.

    Its possible that the very rich are so rich now that they have no impetus to increase the rate of their wealth gains. Maybe it's kinda like leveling in an RPG -- once you get so strong, the game stops being enjoyable. And yes, there is a "fun" element about making money (or else you wouldn't be playing RC Tycoon!

    There needs to be government action to force the banks to start lending again. That's what the problem is. "Incentives" are misguided; it is the dispossessed who need (and deserve) opportunity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tcaudilllg View Post
    There needs to be government action to force the banks to start lending again. That's what the problem is. "Incentives" are misguided; it is the dispossessed who need (and deserve) opportunity.
    Banks are private institutions... they should not be forced to do business. If lending needs to be forced, let the government do the lending itself.



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    That's not going to happen.

    In other news, I read this thread:

    Obama Administration Announces Massive PC Piracy Crackdown - PC Message Board for PC - GameFAQs

    What do you think would be the effect if this went through?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ashton View Post
    Psycho government.
    I elect to disestablish the government and instead instill a system of corporate feudalism

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    Quote Originally Posted by tcaudilllg View Post
    Blah blah blah....

    In other words, these numbers are a sign of a new concept of oligarchy.
    That thesis is too grandiose to reasonably prove without a ridiculous amount of evaluation.

    I'd be inclined to model this all like a scientist/engineer/mathematician using cold hard statistics.

    I think splitting up the economy into regimes and compartments (for the sake of analysis) then modeling the cash flow between these like a huge system and figuring out where the money is going, along with actual real world assets as another variable.

    Choosing the regimes and compartments would be a bit of an art, you'd have to select them intelligently depending on what aspects of the economy you would wish to investigate.

    Once the statistical relationship was developed you'd have to backtrack these, by developing dates of significant economic activity in certain regimes and then cross checking these with economic news/events. To better understand what real world events were responsible for these you could relate the statistics to the event. From here you could make a map of these events with a set of possible real world causes.

    Then either you or a team of people investigate these events in depth to make sure their is a physical reason which makes sense for the statistical trend.

    Plug this back into the economic time-line of statistics... this time with associated real world events. Then you can look at the timeline and have a perspective on what exactly is occurring.

    From the series of events, the dominoes which culminate in particular areas of economic decline you could make an inference/hypothesis on the way these series of events reflect a change in social/cultural values.

    Then you will have proved your thesis.

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    Or the threat of an active investigation/predictable negative reaction would cause an increase in hiring, meaning that the investigation will show "no change" and later, they same folk will try it again.

    Alternatively, this investigation is conducted over say, 2-3 years during which 10% of the workforce remains unemployed. Corporate autocracy reigns.

    Is now really the time for long studies? Should we study our um, poverty?

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    Quote Originally Posted by tcaudilllg View Post
    Or the threat of an active investigation/predictable negative reaction would cause, meaning that the investigation will show "no change".

    Alternatively, this investigation is conducted over say, 2-3 years during which 10% of the workforce remains unemployed. Corporate autocracy reigns.

    Is now really the time for long studies? Should we study our um, poverty?
    I'm just saying that to make such a claim takes evidence.... also I'd estimate a team of 10 qualified people could do such an investigation with 1-3 months... in a season of time, and people would know exactly what is the source of economic decline.

    People that are overly alarmist can ruins things. Its like defusing a bomb, you just don't run in and go, OMG and start pulling cords!!!!!! Figure out how the bomb works, then disable it. Problem Solved. It only makes sense to take a risk pulling cords when the benefit outweighs the cost. The time for action would be once the economy hits its floor, then there wouldn't be much error in trying to restimulate it, but overcontrolling it can just lead to confusion and instability.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tcaudilllg View Post
    There needs to be government action to force the banks to start lending again. That's what the problem is. "Incentives" are misguided; it is the dispossessed who need (and deserve) opportunity.
    Great point. This is where the problem is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ashton View Post
    Doing that will induce hyperinflation Maritsa/tcaud. You want that to happen?

    we're always working to prevent it anyway

    TECHNOLOGY

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    Quote Originally Posted by HaveLucidDreamz View Post
    That thesis is too grandiose to reasonably prove without a ridiculous amount of evaluation.

    I'd be inclined to model this all like a scientist/engineer/mathematician using cold hard statistics.

    I think splitting up the economy into regimes and compartments (for the sake of analysis) then modeling the cash flow between these like a huge system and figuring out where the money is going, along with actual real world assets as another variable.

    Choosing the regimes and compartments would be a bit of an art, you'd have to select them intelligently depending on what aspects of the economy you would wish to investigate.

    Once the statistical relationship was developed you'd have to backtrack these, by developing dates of significant economic activity in certain regimes and then cross checking these with economic news/events. To better understand what real world events were responsible for these you could relate the statistics to the event. From here you could make a map of these events with a set of possible real world causes.

    Then either you or a team of people investigate these events in depth to make sure their is a physical reason which makes sense for the statistical trend.

    Plug this back into the economic time-line of statistics... this time with associated real world events. Then you can look at the timeline and have a perspective on what exactly is occurring.

    From the series of events, the dominoes which culminate in particular areas of economic decline you could make an inference/hypothesis on the way these series of events reflect a change in social/cultural values.

    Then you will have proved your thesis.
    So inefficient. Every time you make a Ti you will find it not working well in application and have to continue to make more Ti just to replace the other in hopes of improved efficiency, when in reality they are amassed inefficient systems that don't work well in application, in theory, they are great, sure.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ashton View Post
    Lol, as if. Corporatism is just another word for Socialism.
    Not the -ism words.

    Corporate Feudalism would be different than any governmental -ism form of government.

    Feudalism is simple... you have a lord which owns a stake of land and protection for it... people can typically own their own stake of land that isn't part of the lords land, but without protection, so it become easy for another aspiring lord with protection to take that land.... so they agree to work for the lord for protection and in return the are subject to his will by the same protection which protects them.

    Corporate Feudalism would refer to authoritarian relationships between workers and corporate leaders. The Corporate Leaders being the lords. The Protection or security being contracts, legality, lawyers and so forth. The Stake of Land being economic assets.

    It would have nothing to do with governmental authority, only strictly to do with lines of authority within a company.

    Socialism and other governmental -isms differ in that authority is not traced back to a "lord" and his "land" but rather to a central governing agency referred to as a government, which is recognized on the basis of national unity. Holding its power out of Law/Police/Military. Except in a socialist or similar government the law/police/military infringe into the world of economic power, usually with the aspiration of making a law centered around economics, with the short sighted vision of attempting to make peoples economic lives fair.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ashton View Post
    Well, that is just patently insane.
    You capitalists ENTj's always out to make a buck at the expense of the markets (driven by heard working individuals behind a product/maker/business person -fine) which you very well observed go down under once and who saved it?

    Was it not the Obama administration who bailed the banks?

    So the banks will take the gov money (albeit forced), but not be forced to lend money out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ashton View Post
    The scenario makes for an entertaining thought experiment I suppose, but are you aware of what a corporation is? That is, what the word means and reefers to sans its spooky dystopian connotations.
    no I actually I don't know what the word means.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maritsa33 View Post
    So inefficient. Every time you make a Ti you will find it not working well in application and have to continue to make more Ti just to replace the other in hopes of improved efficiency, when in reality they are amassed inefficient systems that don't work well in application, in theory, they are great, sure.
    What?

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    Quote Originally Posted by HaveLucidDreamz View Post
    I think splitting up the economy into regimes and compartments (for the sake of analysis) then modeling the cash flow between these like a huge system and figuring out where the money is going, along with actual real world assets as another variable.
    Why will you be doing this?
    You want to investigate where the money is going? I thought we already knew that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maritsa33 View Post
    You want to investigate where the money is going? I thought we already knew that.
    Enlighten me then lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by HaveLucidDreamz View Post
    Enlighten me then lol
    Where's the info, what am I processing? What info would you like specifically?

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    Quote Originally Posted by discojoe View Post
    What I've always been fascinated by is the utter lack of justification for your existence. Everything you say is so fragmented from consequential reality that it seems like the Universe should be actively working to have you killed, ala Final Destination.
    lol. That is a win. WIN.

    But, as a general principle, I highly doubt that any one factor is the cause of "all" of anything else. Having a specific disorder may be one trait, one gene. A sickness is always multifactorial. Even when caused by a specific pathogen, the body's response is so much more complex than the one pathogen. Most of the symptoms are caused by the cure, such as mucus when you have a cold. Anyway, a specific economic problem could very well be the government's fault. But I don't think that all the problems that could possibly be considered economic problems (I mean, if you ask Jeffrey Sachs, poverty is effectively an "economic problem") are the government's fault.

    Anyway, yes, I do wish that people would hire more. But I don't graduate 'til 2013, and I'm pretty sure things will be better by then, so...
    Not a rule, just a trend.

    IEI. Probably Fe subtype. Pretty sure I'm E4, sexual instinctual type, fairly confident that I'm a 3 wing now, so: IEI-Fe E4w3 sx/so. Considering 3w4 now, but pretty sure that 4 fits the best.

    Yes 'a ma'am that's pretty music...

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    I don't think it's entirely the government's fault; It CAN'T be. Our system isn't set up that way so that it would be.

    I'm too tired and my brain is fried to give my input. I'll try to formulate my thoughts tomorrow and see what I can offer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maritsa33 View Post
    Where's the info, what am I processing? What info would you like specifically?
    That's why you split it into compartments/regimes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by HaveLucidDreamz View Post
    That's why you split it into compartments/regimes.
    I think the solution is in Si not Ti.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maritsa33 View Post
    I think the solution is in Si not Ti.
    Convincing.... because you think so, I'll believe it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by HaveLucidDreamz View Post
    That thesis is too grandiose to reasonably prove without a ridiculous amount of evaluation.

    I'd be inclined to model this all like a scientist/engineer/mathematician using cold hard statistics.

    I think splitting up the economy into regimes and compartments (for the sake of analysis) then modeling the cash flow between these like a huge system and figuring out where the money is going, along with actual real world assets as another variable.

    Choosing the regimes and compartments would be a bit of an art, you'd have to select them intelligently depending on what aspects of the economy you would wish to investigate.

    Once the statistical relationship was developed you'd have to backtrack these, by developing dates of significant economic activity in certain regimes and then cross checking these with economic news/events. To better understand what real world events were responsible for these you could relate the statistics to the event. From here you could make a map of these events with a set of possible real world causes.

    Then either you or a team of people investigate these events in depth to make sure their is a physical reason which makes sense for the statistical trend.

    Plug this back into the economic time-line of statistics... this time with associated real world events. Then you can look at the timeline and have a perspective on what exactly is occurring.

    From the series of events, the dominoes which culminate in particular areas of economic decline you could make an inference/hypothesis on the way these series of events reflect a change in social/cultural values.

    Then you will have proved your thesis.
    We have this kind of stuff already, they're called Leontief input-output tables (he got the nobel prize for this "creation") : Input-output model - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    However, it's a rather useless system as far as prediction goes, because coefficients change too quickly - thus if you try to predict flows for one month from now, you'd have to input the coefficients for one month from now. Understanding the direction of the chain of causation is equally complicated: in Economics you have a notion called "Granger Causality", which is several orders of magnitudes lower than real causation, in terms of explanatory power, because there's no way to prove that causality isn't due to common trends.
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