I might have been wrong about oil

[Jimbean]

This is a total curve ball that just thrown out, and at me!

For a long time I was saying that oil was going to hit 200 usd a barrel, and I said this with full confidence. Now, inside sources are now saying that there is a cabal of people, it looks like it is inside BP, that aim to take oil down to 50 usd a barrel!!!


I'll post later on the predicted geopolitical and economic consequences on this.

[Darkstar]

what "inside sources" would that be?

[discojoe]

Boycott Citgo.

[tcaudilllg]

This is a total curve ball that just thrown out, and at me!

For a long time I was saying that oil was going to hit 200 usd a barrel, and I said this with full confidence. Now, inside sources are now saying that there is a cabal of people, it looks like it is inside BP, that aim to take oil down to 50 usd a barrel!!!


I'll post later on the predicted geopolitical and economic consequences on this.

Don't ask what the consequences are... ask why they're doing it.

[Darkstar]

and Bush sold santa illegal fireworks that started the korea problem. All for world domination

[Darkstar]

my non existent sources

Like everybodys sources in this thread

Let's sing Coombaya and smoke on a pipe

[tcaudilllg]

As I understand it, Congress is considering legislation to extradite oil speculators from the British market, for prosecution in the States....

[Expat]

This is a total curve ball that just thrown out, and at me!

For a long time I was saying that oil was going to hit 200 usd a barrel, and I said this with full confidence. Now, inside sources are now saying that there is a cabal of people, it looks like it is inside BP, that aim to take oil down to 50 usd a barrel!!!


I'll post later on the predicted geopolitical and economic consequences on this.

A cabal inside BP - my former employer (yeah I've worked for, and with, a few oil companies)? What makes you think that BP has the clout to shape the world oil price, especially if OPEC doesn't play along (and if OPEC does, what BP wants or not is irrelevant).

[force my hand]

This is a total curve ball that just thrown out, and at me!

For a long time I was saying that oil was going to hit 200 usd a barrel, and I said this with full confidence. Now, inside sources are now saying that there is a cabal of people, it looks like it is inside BP, that aim to take oil down to 50 usd a barrel!!!


I'll post later on the predicted geopolitical and economic consequences on this.

....must....not... self.....control.... kitties.....clouds....

FUCK.

NO NORMAL HUMAN BEING THINKS LIKE THIS.

[Jimbean]

what "inside sources" would that be?

There was a plan back in 2006 to have a barrel of oil to go to 200 USDs by the summer of 2009 by the Bilderburg group. But since the Iraq invasion there have been some disagreements about how to influence the tide of geopolitical and economic power. There are some powerful people who want a war with Iran, and want either the US or Israel to start it, but now it appears that some of them are arranging a strategy to take Iran down without using US military force (maybe because those people think it would be too risky, not to mention the majority of Americans would not support the necessary draft). It is possible, but I don't know how likely, that the strategy now is to take Iran and Venezuela down by flooding the market with 50 USD a barrel of oil to take down their economies. With the breakdown of the economies of the "axis of evil," the breakdown of the US economy through an inflationary depression, and with cheap oil flooding the market, China and Russia would be the new superpowers.

Note: The are several reasons why oil is going up in price. The main reason, and something that no one is talking about, is that the US dollar has lost 40% of its value in the last seven years. So 50 USD's a barrel in 2008 dollars is about the same as 30 USD's in 2001 dollars.

[Jimbean]

During the Iran-Iraq war, Saddam Hussein sold oil at ~$5 a barrel to the States to fund the war effort.

That is one of many of the hearsay reasons why the US went to war with them the first time.

[Jimbean]

my non existent sources

Like everybodys sources in this thread

Let's sing Coombaya and smoke on a pipe

Alright, I should give you my source. It does not look like much, but they are one of my trustworthy sources. And I cannot guarantee this with 100% certainty, more like 85%, but it is enough to post it nevertheless.

These are all in order, start with the first one.

[Jimbean]

A cabal inside BP - my former employer (yeah I've worked for, and with, a few oil companies)? What makes you think that BP has the clout to shape the world oil price, especially if OPEC doesn't play along (and if OPEC does, what BP wants or not is irrelevant).

That is one of the reasons why I have trouble with this. There are a few things that don't make sense. Well I suppose that they could be planning to drill in non OPEC countries, which then a different group would have more influence. But that there would mean that there would be more internal conflict within the elites

Other problems with this is pointed out by some economists. Some of those that have written about this do not think it is economically possible for oil to sell as low as 50 USD's by the time that oil hits the market, because the dollar has lost and continues to lose so much of its value. Also, as far as my sources can tell at the moment, there are still people on the inside (so to speak) that are still looking at 200 USD's a barrel.

[Jimbean]

A cabal inside BP - my former employer (yeah I've worked for, and with, a few oil companies)? What makes you think that BP has the clout to shape the world oil price, especially if OPEC doesn't play along (and if OPEC does, what BP wants or not is irrelevant).

Okay, I got it. Try Canada, Russia, and Indonesia!

[discojoe]

Does it really take a genius to realize that Alex Jones is crazy?

[Jimbean]

Does it really take a genius to realize that Alex Jones is crazy?

Hell yeah, we all are

but people like Jones, me, and several others in our movement to restore our republic are at least grounded in reality, which is something that should not be said about televised media.

[Logos]

Hell yeah, we all are

but people like Jones, me, and several others in our movement to restore our republic are at least grounded in reality, which is something that should not be said about televised media.

Our movement? Restore our republic? Restore it to what? It's not a Renaissance painting.

[Jimbean]

Our movement? Restore our republic? Restore it to what? It's not a Renaissance painting.

I'll answer this either tomorrow or on Thursday. Before I do, does anyone like to post a comment or ask a question on this topic before the topic gets derailed?

[Logos]

Yes. What was the average height of this cabal of people?

[Expat]

There is no need to look for hidden conspiracies or cabals, much less those limited to single companies. Not one of those western oil companies, whether BP, Shell, Exxon or whoever, has the power to shape the oil price. That becomes clear if you just take a look at the percentage of the world's oil production and reserves that they control.

There is of course a cabal, or conspiracy, to manipulate the oil price and its name is OPEC. Of course the OPEC countries, and every other country/company that makes money selling oil, want to have its price as high as possible before it becomes counter-productive. Duh. And that is what happened in the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, which happened much against the wishes of western countries (even if not against the wishes of western oil companies, but I don't buy the notion that they rule their own countries, since many other companies prefer to have the oil price down).

Now, if you look at any graph of the price of the oil in the last decades, you will see that the oil price dove sharply again around 1985. The main immediate reason was that Saudi Arabia flooded the market at the time, and they had their own reasons for that.

Essentially the continually high - and increasing - price in the period 1973-1984 led to changes in the world's economy, not only in measures to increase energy efficiency, but also increasing uses of things like nuclear power and, most importantly, it led to previously non-profitable oil fields as in the North Sea (Britain and Norway) become profitable, also in the former USSR, etc. And countries like South Africa and New Zealand actually were making synthetic oil (South Africa still is). The effect overall was to reduce the world's dependency on OPEC, which was itself breaking apart, with Saudi Arabia shouldering the burden for keeping the price high nearly single-handedly.

That is also, by the way, why Saudi Arabia listened to the Reagan administration's arguments for flooding the market with oil again: by keeping the oil price high by keeping down its own production levels, the House of Saud was in the final analysis helping the other OPEC countries more than itself, and helping the USSR as well, something not in the interests of the House of Saud, either. So, essentially, from 1985 on they started increasing their own production levels sharply, bringing the overall oil price down but making more money themselves (since their own market share rose even more sharply), and helping the overall Reagan strategy of ruining the economy of the Soviet Union.

Which is, by they way, essentially why the USSR, and later Russia, were pathetic in the Gorbachev and Yeltsin eras, and has become more cocky in the age of Putin: because oil was cheap then, and it's expensive now. That is a simplistic but not inaccurate explanation.

None of the above "rules" have changed, but the overall demand for oil has changed, with the increasing demand in China, India and other countries, so the OPEC can play the same game at a higher oil price.

There is no mystery to any of this, and I think it's foolish to think that any single company, or nation, or hidden conspiracy, has the power to steer the global oil price. Unless one believes in something like the Illuminatti.

[tcaudilllg]

There is no need to look for hidden conspiracies or cabals, much less those limited to single companies. Not one of those western oil companies, whether BP, Shell, Exxon or whoever, has the power to shape the oil price. That becomes clear if you just take a look at the percentage of the world's oil production and reserves that they control.

There is of course a cabal, or conspiracy, to manipulate the oil price and its name is OPEC. Of course the OPEC countries, and every other country/company that makes money selling oil, want to have its price as high as possible before it becomes counter-productive. Duh. And that is what happened in the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, which happened much against the wishes of western countries (even if not against the wishes of western oil companies, but I don't buy the notion that they rule their own countries, since many other companies prefer to have the oil price down).

Now, if you look at any graph of the price of the oil in the last decades, you will see that the oil price dove sharply again around 1985. The main immediate reason was that Saudi Arabia flooded the market at the time, and they had their own reasons for that.

Essentially the continually high - and increasing - price in the period 1973-1984 led to changes in the world's economy, not only in measures to increase energy efficiency, but also increasing uses of things like nuclear power and, most importantly, it led to previously non-profitable oil fields as in the North Sea (Britain and Norway) become profitable, also in the former USSR, etc. And countries like South Africa and New Zealand actually were making synthetic oil (South Africa still is). The effect overall was to reduce the world's dependency on OPEC, which was itself breaking apart, with Saudi Arabia shouldering the burden for keeping the price high nearly single-handedly.

That is also, by the way, why Saudi Arabia listened to the Reagan administration's arguments for flooding the market with oil again: by keeping the oil price high by keeping down its own production levels, the House of Saud was in the final analysis helping the other OPEC countries more than itself, and helping the USSR as well, something not in the interests of the House of Saud, either. So, essentially, from 1985 on they started increasing their own production levels sharply, bringing the overall oil price down but making more money themselves (since their own market share rose even more sharply), and helping the overall Reagan strategy of ruining the economy of the Soviet Union.

Which is, by they way, essentially why the USSR, and later Russia, were pathetic in the Gorbachev and Yeltsin eras, and has become more cocky in the age of Putin: because oil was cheap then, and it's expensive now. That is a simplistic but not inaccurate explanation.

None of the above "rules" have changed, but the overall demand for oil has changed, with the increasing demand in China, India and other countries, so the OPEC can play the same game at a higher oil price.

There is no mystery to any of this, and I think it's foolish to think that any single company, or nation, or hidden conspiracy, has the power to steer the global oil price. Unless one believes in something like the Illuminatti.

So you don't think the fact that many people think the West can be conditioned not to use oil by making it more expensive, is relevant to the pricing? The Left believes this heavily, for the record: they think forcing an involuntary culture change can save the environment from traditionalists like yourself, whom they don't think can be persuaded by other means.

[Ezra]

This is a total curve ball that just thrown out, and at me!

For a long time I was saying that oil was going to hit 200 usd a barrel, and I said this with full confidence. Now, inside sources are now saying that there is a cabal of people, it looks like it is inside BP, that aim to take oil down to 50 usd a barrel!!!


I'll post later on the predicted geopolitical and economic consequences on this.

lol @ 50 usd a barrel

Yay! Now everyone can go out and buy things they don't need, flights they don't need to go on and houses they don't need to live in! Ahhh, the beauty of a market-run state.

[Jimbean]

There is no need to look for hidden conspiracies or cabals, much less those limited to single companies. Not one of those western oil companies, whether BP, Shell, Exxon or whoever, has the power to shape the oil price. That becomes clear if you just take a look at the percentage of the world's oil production and reserves that they control.

There is of course a cabal, or conspiracy, to manipulate the oil price and its name is OPEC. Of course the OPEC countries, and every other country/company that makes money selling oil, want to have its price as high as possible before it becomes counter-productive. Duh. And that is what happened in the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, which happened much against the wishes of western countries (even if not against the wishes of western oil companies, but I don't buy the notion that they rule their own countries, since many other companies prefer to have the oil price down).

Now, if you look at any graph of the price of the oil in the last decades, you will see that the oil price dove sharply again around 1985. The main immediate reason was that Saudi Arabia flooded the market at the time, and they had their own reasons for that.

Essentially the continually high - and increasing - price in the period 1973-1984 led to changes in the world's economy, not only in measures to increase energy efficiency, but also increasing uses of things like nuclear power and, most importantly, it led to previously non-profitable oil fields as in the North Sea (Britain and Norway) become profitable, also in the former USSR, etc. And countries like South Africa and New Zealand actually were making synthetic oil (South Africa still is). The effect overall was to reduce the world's dependency on OPEC, which was itself breaking apart, with Saudi Arabia shouldering the burden for keeping the price high nearly single-handedly.

That is also, by the way, why Saudi Arabia listened to the Reagan administration's arguments for flooding the market with oil again: by keeping the oil price high by keeping down its own production levels, the House of Saud was in the final analysis helping the other OPEC countries more than itself, and helping the USSR as well, something not in the interests of the House of Saud, either. So, essentially, from 1985 on they started increasing their own production levels sharply, bringing the overall oil price down but making more money themselves (since their own market share rose even more sharply), and helping the overall Reagan strategy of ruining the economy of the Soviet Union.

Which is, by they way, essentially why the USSR, and later Russia, were pathetic in the Gorbachev and Yeltsin eras, and has become more cocky in the age of Putin: because oil was cheap then, and it's expensive now. That is a simplistic but not inaccurate explanation.

None of the above "rules" have changed, but the overall demand for oil has changed, with the increasing demand in China, India and other countries, so the OPEC can play the same game at a higher oil price.

There is no mystery to any of this, and I think it's foolish to think that any single company, or nation, or hidden conspiracy, has the power to steer the global oil price. Unless one believes in something like the Illuminatti.

Since you are older and more well read, you know more about oil than I do. Normally I would say to wait and see what happens, and about 90% of the time my sources are right about what is happening. But this I cannot do because they do not know what is going on. Even if elitists want do something like this, it does not mean that they can do it. And imagine if there are two groups of powerful groups that want to do two different things, like one wants 50 USD's a barrel of oil and the other wants it to go to 200 USD's a barrel? What happens if they both act? So I pretty much screwed myself of ever being able to prove that forces behind the curtain (so to speak) have either control or influence of what goes on in the price of oil or where it is being drilled, rather than just saying it is OPEC that has all of the control and that all of the governments of non oil producing countries are trying to rid themselves of oil dependence, in this case at least. So that is certainly my fault.

[Jimbean]

lol @ 50 usd a barrel

Yay! Now everyone can go out and buy things they don't need, flights they don't need to go on and houses they don't need to live in!

Not necessarily.

[Jimbean]

Expat's facts are all facts, and obviously I agree it is worth pointing out. Except for this one I think needs to be expanded on:

Essentially the continually high - and increasing - price in the period 1973-1984 led to changes in the world's economy, not only in measures to increase energy efficiency, but also increasing uses of things like nuclear power and, most importantly, it led to previously non-profitable oil fields as in the North Sea (Britain and Norway) become profitable, also in the former USSR, etc. And countries like South Africa and New Zealand actually were making synthetic oil (South Africa still is). The effect overall was to reduce the world's dependency on OPEC, which was itself breaking apart, with Saudi Arabia shouldering the burden for keeping the price high nearly single-handedly.

There are people of the free market (I guess you can call them forces) that are aiming to reduce or eliminate the dependence on oil both internationally and nationally. These are some of the best and the brightest individuals, and I applaud them, because they are creating values that I have not. However, there are forces in the upper corporate, upper government, and university systems that have also built a system to suppress new technology.

There is no need to look for hidden conspiracies or cabals,...

I disagree

There is no mystery to any of this, and I think it's foolish to think that any single company, or nation, or hidden conspiracy, has the power to steer the global oil price. Unless one believes in something like the Illuminatti.

I cannot imagine a single company or nation being able to have a single handed influence on the price of oil, especially considering OPEC nations. Otherwise I disagree with most of that statement.

[Expat]

Since you are older and more well read, you know more about oil than I do.

Not because I am older. I know more about oil than most people because that is my professional field.

There are people of the free market (I guess you can call them forces) that are aiming to reduce or eliminate the dependence on oil both internationally and nationally. These are some of the best and the brightest individuals, and I applaud them, because they are creating values that I have not. However, there are forces in the upper corporate, upper government, and university systems that have also built a system to suppress new technology.

Lots of alternative technologies to oil - including producing synthetic oil - already exist. All of the major oil companies are aware of them. I worked in R&D in two of them, including BP. Any google search - hell, even a search in wikipedia - will give a good overview of them. It's not a secret. In the period 1974-85, R&D on that was intensive, by all oil companies.

I cannot imagine a single company or nation being able to have a single handed influence on the price of oil, especially considering OPEC nations.

Then I don't know what you meant with the cabal within BP.

[Logos]

Not because I am older. I know more about oil than most people because that is my professional field.

What exactly do you do? Also I cannot recall what field you received your Ph.D.

[Logos]

Expat's facts are all facts, and obviously I agree it is worth pointing out. Except for this one I think needs to be expanded on:

There are people of the free market (I guess you can call them forces) that are aiming to reduce or eliminate the dependence on oil both internationally and nationally. These are some of the best and the brightest individuals, and I applaud them, because they are creating values that I have not. However, there are forces in the upper corporate, upper government, and university systems that have also built a system to suppress new technology.

I disagree

I cannot imagine a single company or nation being able to have a single handed influence on the price of oil, especially considering OPEC nations. Otherwise I disagree with most of that statement.

Do not waste your time tilting at windmills.

[Jimbean]

Not because I am older. I know more about oil than most people because that is my professional field.

ah ha

Then I don't know what you meant with the cabal within BP.

I can't prove shit but I will defend my sources, which are right 90% of the time.

[Jimbean]

Do not waste your time tilting at windmills.

oh yeah, now how is that?

[Expat]

What exactly do you do? Also I cannot recall what field you received your Ph.D.

I am a chemical engineer. My MSc and PhD theses, in chemical engineering, were in the area of developing new processes for the petrochemical industry.

As for what I do: I have worked in pure R&D for oil companies; as technical consultant in the fertilizer industry; as independent consultant; then as technical/commercial manager in suppliers of the automotive industry. Most recently I did a stint as business develpment manager of a water treatment company, an experience that totally sucked. So now I have taken over the chemical engineering design of a new product that a start-up company - located just by the pub in my pictures - is going to launch by the end of the year. So far it's pretty much the kind of job I prefer to do.

[Logos]

oh yeah, now how is that?

Conspiracies amongst cabals of people?

[discojoe]

I am a chemical engineer. My MSc and PhD theses, in chemical engineering, were in the area of developing new processes for the petrochemical industry.

As for what I do: I have worked in pure R&D for oil companies; as technical consultant in the fertilizer industry; as independent consultant; then as technical/commercial manager in suppliers of the automotive industry. Most recently I did a stint as business develpment manager of a water treatment company, an experience that totally sucked. So now I have taken over the chemical engineering design of a new product that a start-up company - located just by the pub in my pictures - is going to launch by the end of the year. So far it's pretty much the kind of job I prefer to do.

You should post all your company's secrets on wikileaks.

[Expat]

You should post all your company's secrets on wikileaks.

Regarding the shady dealings of some previous bosses, yes.

[Expat]

Stepping outside my ignore list --

So you don't think the fact that many people think the West can be conditioned not to use oil by making it more expensive, is relevant to the pricing?

If you make anything more expensive, people will be inclined to consume less of it. That's so obvious it's absurd to have to state it, and that has nothing to do with being "conditioned".

The Left believes this heavily, for the record: they think forcing an involuntary culture change can save the environment from traditionalists like yourself, whom they don't think can be persuaded by other means.

And why should the "left", much less people like you, be allowed to have power to force on anyone an "involutary culture change"? Rather than give people like you and such "left" the chance to impose on anyone an involuntary culture change, I'd see you all put in jail the moment you attempted anything of the sort.

[tcaudilllg]

[quote=Expat;400180]Stepping outside my ignore list --

If you make anything more expensive, people will be inclined to consume less of it. That's so obvious it's absurd to have to state it, and that has nothing to do with being "conditioned".

I didn't say you could be conditioned, only that some people believe you can be. As a rule, only radical communitarians and individualists can be conditioned.

And why should the "left", much less people like you, be allowed to have power to force on anyone an "involutary culture change"? Rather than give people like you and such "left" the chance to impose on anyone an involuntary culture change, I'd see you all put in jail the moment you attempted anything of the sort.

People like me? There's a difference between the "left" and the "radical left". I want them in jail as much as you do. (well, maybe not in jail, but certainly deprived of influence). The left and radical left start on the same premise -- global warming is bad -- but split on how to confront it. The left prefers to work with the right for a solution; the radical left has no confidence in the right's intellect and thus, believes the right must be forced to change course. However even here there must be a distinction between radical liberalism, and radical communitarianism/individualism, because only the latter would attempt to force a cultural revolution. (the liberals know from experience that conservatives would only try to drill for more oil).

The question is this: are there enough people on the radical left investing in oil, to drive up the price by a significant margin?

[Expat]

The question is this: are there enough people on the radical left investing in oil, to drive up the price by a significant margin?

I don't know, but I would hope that such people are indeed doing that -- by throwing their money away, they'd be doing a good job of ruining themselves.

[tcaudilllg]

I don't know, but I would hope that such people are indeed doing that -- by throwing their money away, they'd be doing a good job of ruining themselves.

But they aren't necessarily throwing it away. Matthew Simmons has made millions consulting people on matters of oil investment, and yet he believes we have an addiction to oil. How does he do it? If, as he believes, oil becomes more scarce (which it always is, although the market supply of it remains sufficient to meet demand), then its price per barrel will remain high even as supply falls. Yet if people continue to remain dependent on it, then the price will continue to rise because they *must* pay for it, or change their habits. He doesn't believe people necessarily will change course, but even if they do and he loses everything, then perhaps he becomes a sort of martyr who saved man from his own consumptive urges.

It doesn't matter if his thinking is warped; what matters is whether or not he is, indeed, thinking in that way, and whether or not people are willing to follow him into the abyss. History suggests they may be, because he just happens to be extremely charismatic. Wikipedia says he is the foremost expert in the field of oil economics. It's also important to remember that the radical left perceives of global warming as an existential threat, and that no level of sacrifice may be too great to force a change in consumption patterns which may be intensifying the phenomenon.

[Jimbean]

This is a total curve ball that just thrown out, and at me!

For a long time I was saying that oil was going to hit 200 usd a barrel, and I said this with full confidence. Now, inside sources are now saying that there is a cabal of people, it looks like it is inside BP, that aim to take oil down to 50 usd a barrel!!!

Bump!

[Warlord]