Is there some place to bet on this? I know who will be the next US president.
Is there some place to bet on this? I know who will be the next US president.
fiona
"Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat."
--Theodore Roosevelt
"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
-- Mark Twain
"Man who stand on hill with mouth open will wait long time for roast duck to drop in."
-- Confucius
This would need a lot of cash to make it worth it because the commission is pretty high, but the pay off percentage is very high too. Anyone else on-board?
And sorry no info fishing please, if you are on-board let me know. I might put a grand on this. I might get a new car if I am right.
fiona
no
"Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat."
--Theodore Roosevelt
"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
-- Mark Twain
"Man who stand on hill with mouth open will wait long time for roast duck to drop in."
-- Confucius
Is there some way to sell the info to others who have a lot more cash than me?
So I could buy some kind of futures and offer some kind of insurance if the person I picked doesn't win?
There should be some stock market mechanism to do this.
fiona
OK. This is the funniest thread I've seen in a while.
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.-Mark Twain
You can't wake a person who is pretending to be asleep.
Oh come on, no negativity pleaseOriginally Posted by Slacker Mom
fiona
You know, it occurs to me that what you're doing is trying to get people to send you money again. That makes this spam - and that's the generous interpretation. It sounds more like a scam. Though someone would have to be pretty stupid to fall for it. "I know who the next president will be. Give me money so I can bet on it."Originally Posted by Dioklecian2
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.-Mark Twain
You can't wake a person who is pretending to be asleep.
I am not asking for money, just people who invest THEIR own money from wherever they live on the person that I have picked.Originally Posted by Slacker Mom
Take your negative interpretations elsewhere please.
fiona
I don't think that that site is a fair betting place because their probabilities add up to well over 100%.Originally Posted by Jimbean
fiona
PS: I f I want people to pay for typing services, they can do it perfectly well at a very professional website underway dedicated to comercial matters for a 10+ year old business.
fiona
I don't have any schemes. I have very special info that is worth a lot.
fiona
That market is rigged because they have mislead the public by saying that the price reflects the curent evaluation of risk by the market, but that is not true. The price only represents the price of each option, nothing more.Originally Posted by ifmd95
If the prices reflected risk (probabilities of victory), the prices would add up to 100, but that is not the case.
I am not sure how they rig the issue of "contracts" to have the prices add up to well over 100%, because if it was left to float it would some times over 100% and at other times under 100%. On average it would be 100%.
fiona
If you bet at a sports site, usually the probabilties tha teach team wil win add up to 100%.
fiona
Dio -- in your judgement, is your prognostication a positive or negative outcome?
What do you mean? Those terms are not familiar to me.Originally Posted by tcaudilllg
fiona
I got it, they rig the market my limit the number of options issued to lower than demand.Originally Posted by Dioklecian2
I will check how they issue the contracts in the beggining. Do the options add up to 100% at the price first sold?
Anyways, I appreciate very much the site being offered as a possibility to bet on, but if you really wan to bet I would not recomend it.
fiona
IFMD, what do paper do you trade?
fiona
alan keyes ftw
See Hitta's +/- theory.Originally Posted by Dioklecian2
I think that he has mistyped himself, so I am not reading his theories in a lot of detail. Sorry.Originally Posted by tcaudilllg
fiona
By the way, sorry, that website is OK. I miscalculated something. It's still not a very good place to bet, because they present the results as contrats, when in fact they are just bets.
fiona
The market per se cannot be irrational because of arbitrage. If the market is less than 100%, then someone would buy an index of the entire market and make money.Originally Posted by ifmd95
fiona
Sounds interesting, do you do this as a living?Originally Posted by ifmd95
fiona
I have TAed some Econ. It's ok. How much money do you play with in average overall in these investments? I have known people how have won a lot and others who have lost. A friend invested 2,ooo$ in a video game start up and lost every cent. Another made lot of money in gold.Originally Posted by ifmd95
I am looking at investments myself. But it's a very cash intensive industry. You need deep pockets.
fiona
Very poor investment.Originally Posted by Dioklecian2
Originally Posted by Joy
Why poor, it's WELL over 100% return.
fiona
Have you calculated your actual odds and weighed the amount of relevant knowledge you have about each candidate? Who could you convince other than yourself? Convince us.
What happened the last time you asked me to convince you of something?Originally Posted by Gilly
fiona
You did nothing, which is precisely what I think you will do now. What special knowledge are you privy to this time?
What do you mean I did nothing? What is your type? Do you stil want to hold your end of the bargain and I will hold mine. Just Yesterday I noticed a minor celeb who looks precisely like you and who has the same type as you IMO.Originally Posted by Gilly
fiona
Ah sorry, I thought that you invest yourself.Originally Posted by ifmd95
The econ department people invested their own retirement funds and now their retirement pension are larger than their salaries!
I have done some work on the methodology/history of economics, the logical structure, etc.
What aspects of econ interest you? Are you into actuarial math or finance?
To tell you the truth I don't put much trust on the mathematical models because their assumptions can be a bit problematic.
What do you think of the oil price?
fiona
you've never read any of Dio's other posts?Originally Posted by Slacker Mom
Who is talking, buttsx, ahemOriginally Posted by Rocky
fiona
Interesting, what's your type IFMD?
Personally I am not into trading per se. The commissions are too high to make it reasonable.
fiona
Interesting about the type, I think I could make a pretty good case for a prticular type. It depends on how well received it would be though. There still a few sceptics of my knowledge aroundOriginally Posted by ifmd95
On the other topic, it amazes me that people would actually let others trade their money. But if it's a good job, it's fine with me.
Out of curiosity, what would it be worth to you to know your type? And what would make pay for such knowldge? People pay 100,000$ for tuition, there ought to be a market to identify inate skills.
fiona
OK.
fiona
Tancredo FTW!Originally Posted by Dioklecian2
Moonlight will fall
Winter will end
Harvest will come
Your heart will mend
What are the odds though? I mean, I could make a 1,000% return playing the lottery, but I don't do it.Originally Posted by Dioklecian2
There's NO WAY you could KNOW who the next president will be, and unless you've been eavesdropping on the conversations of the key players in business (read: politics) in the US, it's not wise to think that the person who should logically win has any chance at all.
No, that's what I was talking about (though I don't know what you mean by "cults of personality).Originally Posted by ifmd95