I know who will be the next US president, can I bet on this?

[Dioklecian2]

Is there some place to bet on this? I know who will be the next US president.

[Jimbean]

http://www.intrade.com//?request_ope...kHomePage=true

[Dioklecian2]

This would need a lot of cash to make it worth it because the commission is pretty high, but the pay off percentage is very high too. Anyone else on-board?

And sorry no info fishing please, if you are on-board let me know. I might put a grand on this. I might get a new car if I am right.

[Jimbean]

no

[Dioklecian2]

Is there some way to sell the info to others who have a lot more cash than me?

So I could buy some kind of futures and offer some kind of insurance if the person I picked doesn't win?

There should be some stock market mechanism to do this.

[Slacker]

OK. This is the funniest thread I've seen in a while.

[Dioklecian2]

OK. This is the funniest thread I've seen in a while.

Oh come on, no negativity please

[Slacker]

This would need a lot of cash to make it worth it because the commission is pretty high, but the pay off percentage is very high too. Anyone else on-board?

And sorry no info fishing please, if you are on-board let me know. I might put a grand on this. I might get a new car if I am right.

You know, it occurs to me that what you're doing is trying to get people to send you money again. That makes this spam - and that's the generous interpretation. It sounds more like a scam. Though someone would have to be pretty stupid to fall for it. "I know who the next president will be. Give me money so I can bet on it."

[Dioklecian2]

This would need a lot of cash to make it worth it because the commission is pretty high, but the pay off percentage is very high too. Anyone else on-board?

And sorry no info fishing please, if you are on-board let me know. I might put a grand on this. I might get a new car if I am right.

You know, it occurs to me that what you're doing is trying to get people to send you money again. That makes this spam - and that's the generous interpretation. It sounds more like a scam. Though someone would have to be pretty stupid to fall for it. "I know who the next president will be. Give me money so I can bet on it."

I am not asking for money, just people who invest THEIR own money from wherever they live on the person that I have picked.

Take your negative interpretations elsewhere please.

[Dioklecian2]

http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkH omePage=true

I don't think that that site is a fair betting place because their probabilities add up to well over 100%.

[Dioklecian2]

PS: I f I want people to pay for typing services, they can do it perfectly well at a very professional website underway dedicated to comercial matters for a 10+ year old business.

[Dioklecian2]

I don't have any schemes. I have very special info that is worth a lot.

[Dioklecian2]

http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkH omePage=true

I don't think that that site is a fair betting place because their probabilities add up to well over 100%.

the probabilities reflect user bids. that they don't add up correctly isn't necessarily indicative of an unfair market for the bids. it may just be that the market players themselves are irrational.

(maybe some of them would be willing to buy into your schemes!)

That market is rigged because they have mislead the public by saying that the price reflects the curent evaluation of risk by the market, but that is not true. The price only represents the price of each option, nothing more.

If the prices reflected risk (probabilities of victory), the prices would add up to 100, but that is not the case.

I am not sure how they rig the issue of "contracts" to have the prices add up to well over 100%, because if it was left to float it would some times over 100% and at other times under 100%. On average it would be 100%.

[Dioklecian2]

If you bet at a sports site, usually the probabilties tha teach team wil win add up to 100%.

[tcaudilllg]

Dio -- in your judgement, is your prognostication a positive or negative outcome?

[Dioklecian2]

Dio -- in your judgement, is your prognostication a positive or negative outcome?

What do you mean? Those terms are not familiar to me.

[Dioklecian2]

http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkH omePage=true

I don't think that that site is a fair betting place because their probabilities add up to well over 100%.

the probabilities reflect user bids. that they don't add up correctly isn't necessarily indicative of an unfair market for the bids. it may just be that the market players themselves are irrational.

(maybe some of them would be willing to buy into your schemes!)

That market is rigged because they have mislead the public by saying that the price reflects the curent evaluation of risk by the market, but that is not true. The price only represents the price of each option, nothing more.

If the prices reflected risk (probabilities of victory), the prices would add up to 100, but that is not the case.

I am not sure how they rig the issue of "contracts" to have the prices add up to well over 100%, because if it was left to float it would some times over 100% and at other times under 100%. On average it would be 100%.

I got it, they rig the market my limit the number of options issued to lower than demand.

I will check how they issue the contracts in the beggining. Do the options add up to 100% at the price first sold?

Anyways, I appreciate very much the site being offered as a possibility to bet on, but if you really wan to bet I would not recomend it.

[Dioklecian2]

IFMD, what do paper do you trade?

[aestrivex]

alan keyes ftw

[tcaudilllg]

Dio -- in your judgement, is your prognostication a positive or negative outcome?

What do you mean? Those terms are not familiar to me.

See Hitta's +/- theory.

[Dioklecian2]

Dio -- in your judgement, is your prognostication a positive or negative outcome?

What do you mean? Those terms are not familiar to me.

See Hitta's +/- theory.

I think that he has mistyped himself, so I am not reading his theories in a lot of detail. Sorry.

[Dioklecian2]

By the way, sorry, that website is OK. I miscalculated something. It's still not a very good place to bet, because they present the results as contrats, when in fact they are just bets.

[Dioklecian2]

http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkH omePage=true

I don't think that that site is a fair betting place because their probabilities add up to well over 100%.

the probabilities reflect user bids. that they don't add up correctly isn't necessarily indicative of an unfair market for the bids. it may just be that the market players themselves are irrational.

(maybe some of them would be willing to buy into your schemes!)

The market per se cannot be irrational because of arbitrage. If the market is less than 100%, then someone would buy an index of the entire market and make money.

[Dioklecian2]

IFMD, what do paper do you trade?

right now NYMEX futures. i am especially trying to use Brownian motion on LS crude. i don't pay for real-time quotes yet though so i check the tables online at regular intervals. when i was p-trading forex though a buddy of mine (who has his own trade station, multi-monitors and everything) used to give me years of old quotes on euro and yen that i'd simulate trades on.

Sounds interesting, do you do this as a living?

[Dioklecian2]

i did an internship over the summer at a trade desk in a decent-sized commercial bank but otherwise i'm a just a college student (math). probably what i'll be doing when i graduate. although in the LR i want to go back to school for graduate economics (micro or econometrics look interesting but i really haven't taken enough econ courses yet to be sure.)

I have TAed some Econ. It's ok. How much money do you play with in average overall in these investments? I have known people how have won a lot and others who have lost. A friend invested 2,ooo$ in a video game start up and lost every cent. Another made lot of money in gold.

I am looking at investments myself. But it's a very cash intensive industry. You need deep pockets.

[Joy]

This would need a lot of cash to make it worth it because the commission is pretty high, but the pay off percentage is very high too. Anyone else on-board?

And sorry no info fishing please, if you are on-board let me know. I might put a grand on this. I might get a new car if I am right.

Very poor investment.

[Dioklecian2]

This would need a lot of cash to make it worth it because the commission is pretty high, but the pay off percentage is very high too. Anyone else on-board?

And sorry no info fishing please, if you are on-board let me know. I might put a grand on this. I might get a new car if I am right.

Very poor investment.

Why poor, it's WELL over 100% return.

[Gilly]

Have you calculated your actual odds and weighed the amount of relevant knowledge you have about each candidate? Who could you convince other than yourself? Convince us.

[Dioklecian2]

Have you calculated your actual odds and weighed the amount of relevant knowledge you have about each candidate? Who could you convince other than yourself? Convince us.

What happened the last time you asked me to convince you of something?

[Gilly]

You did nothing, which is precisely what I think you will do now. What special knowledge are you privy to this time?

[Dioklecian2]

You did nothing, which is precisely what I think you will do now. What special knowledge are you privy to this time?

What do you mean I did nothing? What is your type? Do you stil want to hold your end of the bargain and I will hold mine. Just Yesterday I noticed a minor celeb who looks precisely like you and who has the same type as you IMO.

[Dioklecian2]

[
i don't expect to self-invest any time soon (if i ever do, beyond low-risk stuff for retirement.) what is more common is trading for someone else. and even then, depending on your education and work history, it may be months to over a year of training (and fetching coffee occasionally) before you actually touch a trade desk. unless you go to a smaller bank or exchange, then they might start you off quicker. but the pay is much lower, < $50k. if instead you are willing to be patient and be trained at a larger organization, they may start you off at six digits even.

Ah sorry, I thought that you invest yourself.

The econ department people invested their own retirement funds and now their retirement pension are larger than their salaries!

I have done some work on the methodology/history of economics, the logical structure, etc.

What aspects of econ interest you? Are you into actuarial math or finance?

To tell you the truth I don't put much trust on the mathematical models because their assumptions can be a bit problematic.

What do you think of the oil price?

[Rocky]

OK. This is the funniest thread I've seen in a while.

you've never read any of Dio's other posts?

[Dioklecian2]

OK. This is the funniest thread I've seen in a while.

you've never read any of Dio's other posts?

Who is talking, buttsx, ahem

[Dioklecian2]

Interesting, what's your type IFMD?

Personally I am not into trading per se. The commissions are too high to make it reasonable.

[Dioklecian2]

Interesting, what's your type IFMD?

that's a very good question! i was just talking about that in another thread today. it's something i'm reconsidering at the moment. i forecasted having a decision before Christmas.

Personally I am not into trading per se. The commissions are too high to make it reasonable.

another reason why if you ever do get interested, it's often best to trade for someone else first. (until having enough cash to make very large trades of your own.)

Interesting about the type, I think I could make a pretty good case for a prticular type. It depends on how well received it would be though. There still a few sceptics of my knowledge around

On the other topic, it amazes me that people would actually let others trade their money. But if it's a good job, it's fine with me.

Out of curiosity, what would it be worth to you to know your type? And what would make pay for such knowldge? People pay 100,000$ for tuition, there ought to be a market to identify inate skills.

[Dioklecian2]

OK.

[munenori2]

Is there some place to bet on this? I know who will be the next US president.

Tancredo FTW!

[Joy]

This would need a lot of cash to make it worth it because the commission is pretty high, but the pay off percentage is very high too. Anyone else on-board?

And sorry no info fishing please, if you are on-board let me know. I might put a grand on this. I might get a new car if I am right.

Very poor investment.

Why poor, it's WELL over 100% return.

What are the odds though? I mean, I could make a 1,000% return playing the lottery, but I don't do it.

There's NO WAY you could KNOW who the next president will be, and unless you've been eavesdropping on the conversations of the key players in business (read: politics) in the US, it's not wise to think that the person who should logically win has any chance at all.

[Joy]

politics = business? read: potential emotionl bias. maybe you are underestimating the influence of other interest groups, of "cults of personality", of close-to-home factors like inflation or growth.

No, that's what I was talking about (though I don't know what you mean by "cults of personality).